Thunder, North Island, 9/9

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jamie
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Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by jamie »

Hows this set up looking? To be honest ive only looked at MetService and seen they have a Moderate risk out as seen below. Work is pretty slugish at the moment so if there is something going bonkers near by i can take off from work early.

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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps the hill country nearer Taranaki for a storm.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Looks like a low risk to me rather than a moderate.

Than again I wont complain if something does come up.
I will join ya Jamie if conditions are good enough as I am finishing tech at Lunch :D
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by NZstorm »

It will depend on just how much that upper cold pool can get onto the North Island. I notice the UKMET brings the colder air in a bit more than the GFS. Also, looks like a convergence zone could develop from the Waikato down into the Taranaki along with the presence of an upper trough, so the lift could be there. The biggest issue will be whether any instability can develop but it does look like the upper air will be cold enough over Taranaki for a cb risk there. For the Waikato I agree, the risk looks low atm.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Metservice still seem to be sticking to their guns on this setup:
756c-12aefede700-12af65dda00-12af07c7693.0.png
Chart amended to include parts of Wanganui into the mdt thunderstorm risk area and forecast hail size increased a little. The low risk area has been extended into Nelson abd Buller...

The low should move southeastwards over the central North Island during the afternoon. In its wake it will leave an area of light winds, with cold upper level temperatures. Afternoon heating could lead to thunderstorms popping up from western Bay of Plenty to southern Waikato to Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taranaki and parts of Wanganui. The risk of thunderstorms in this area is moderate at this stage. With the winds being so light, any thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities potentially up to 25mm per hour. There could also be hail in the 5-15mm range. A low risk area extends up to the rest of Waikato, and to Coromandel Peninsula and eastern Bay of Plenty.

A few afternoon showers are likely to develop over Fiordland, Westland and now Buller and inland Nelson, mainly about the Alps or higher terrain, with a low risk of thunderstorms.

No thunderstorms or severe convection expected elsewhere.
Did anyone notice the typos they having been coming out with?
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Last edited by Tornado Tim on Wed 08/09/2010 21:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Tornado Tim wrote:
Did anyone notice the typos they having been coming out with?

I quite often come out with thunderstroms abd nee to corrct myselff :smile:

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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by NZstorm »

12Z GFS run brings that rain more into us, particularly the BOP. But Auckland and Waikato get some afternoon rain also. Overall thunderstorm risk look pretty low.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Michael »

Often the most basic grammatical ones rather than spelling,there and their,witch and which are fairly common,anyway today quite cool mainly overcast,will need sun for anything here today...
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Tornado Tim wrote:
Did anyone notice the typos they having been coming out with?

I quite often come out with thunderstroms abd nee to corrct myselff :smile:

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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Low Risk Now:
A deepening low is expected to move southeastwards onto the central North Island today. Its associated frontal band should bring rain to many North Island places.There is a low risk of thunderstorms with the front about Bay of Plenty,Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo and Taumarunui. Although Taranaki should escape most of the frontal rain, the atmosphere is expected to destabilise there a bit more than elsewhere, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms popping up in the afternoon and evening there also.

An upper level cold pool moves onto the South Island, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the West Coast, mainly in the Alps.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by spwill »

Upper air not particularly cold, satellite pic suggests daytime heating might be limited .
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Vertigo »

a nice northerly flow tho, looks like some heavy rain on its way to BOP
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by jamie »

Might not be a thunderstorm but boy is it pissing down
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Dale »

Yer, zero chance for Sth Auckland today unless a miracle clearing & DTSH kicks in, which is highly unlikely.
Its been flogging down solid since 9am.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Brassnz »

Ditto, raining here continuously for the last three hours. Not especially heavy, but there has been no let-up either.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by spwill »

Dewpoints around 15-16C so humid conditions for September.
Probably going to see a lot of this type of weather over the summer (La Nina). Western parts of the NorthIsland south of about mid Waikato may have a good summer storm season due to humid air and West Coast convergence.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Vertigo »

i see a bunch of thunderstorms have developed on the convergence area well north of the country. no chance of that zone making its way to us tho.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see Ricky has picked up some strikes in the North Waikato in the last hour...
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Razor »

Geez a thunderstorm is outside an earthquake the last thing I'd want to see round here for a little while
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by spwill »

Looks to be a cold unstable flow on the way for the SouthIsland next week but Canterbury will probably have sheltering as the flow looks westerly, some winter for Southland.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by TokWW »

6mm of rain in the last half hour and temp at 12.8ºC , max of 13.6ºC all day - pretty flat dull overcast damp conditions, no threats of tstorms here in Sth Waikato. No sun since yesterday morning. :( Have contractors working outside in the rain and slush making a concrete bunker - rebar for the 3m x 4m 350thk floor.

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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by Nev »

We've had 24mm of non-stop light to moderate rain here since about 9am. Has only just let up, although still misty. Temps around 15C to 16C.
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by jamie »

22mm since midday. has come in bands of heavy rain. very misty conditions, especially for this year. more like december this
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Re: Thunder, North Island, 9/9

Unread post by spwill »

A storm this evening off shore Waikato and BOP Ranges.
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