Big Antarctic Low 16-23rd September 2010

[Talbotm]

Looks to be a big system brewing in the sub Antarctic Ocean. Strong wind heavy rain and snow likely.

[RWood]

Are you referring to the SW/W event already mentioned in the General September weather thread?

[Avalanche]

Nice work i was waiting for someone to start a thread on this subject . Yea is starting to look like a SW/W event is nt it either way its gonna be a windy an cold one , Phil mentioned on newstalkZB today that there was gonna be snow to sea level in some parts of the south island aparently the biggest low on the planet pretty amazing an little ol new zealand smack bang in the middle . Looking forward to see how it progresses over the coming days. Will the snow level be quite low in the north island for this weather event ? would like to know more if anyone out there has a good knowledge of freezing levels. Cheers

[Richard]

Doesn't look like the eastern side of NZ is in the firing line with this one.Thank goodness

[cantygal]

Hallelujah!

[Talbotm]

Yes i am referring to the event mentioned in the general september thread. As this low is aparently one of the biggest in the world at the time i think this deserves its own thread. wouldnt you say rwood.!
Certainly one to watch anyways you never know with a low like this they can change complexion and direction fairly easy.

[snowstormwatcher]

Yep looking cold down south. As it is southwesterly Canterbury wont be affected.

[Lukemyster]

Did i just see 948hpa? Dang!

[Michael]

Not good for here unless it stays more westerly than southerly,all the male "pinecones" are out in spring theyre worse even than the needles.I remember an event in 2005 i think around october like this though who remembers it?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just like the Canterbury earthquakes, there could be something coming up ?

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Avalanche]

Looks like a windy weekend in Wellington as it seems the southlerly gonna hit a high to the north stopping the cold air really from coming north , an in doing so is gonna make it really windy in Wellington an other parts of the country as well of course . Latest runs certainly are starting to show now thats it not as bad as it could have been , hope it changes .

[Dale]

So do I.. for the better. The last big blowjob up here I have just found some roofing issues & certainly dont need galeforce SW'ers.. or any kind of SW'ers right now. As storm starved as I am..

That central pressure is nothing to sneeze at however.

[Michael]

Our window to the SW used to creak and buckle during the many SW we had in the 1st 1/2 of the decade.Had to put a strip of wood in the middle strapped across as it almost would blow in,still does makes a noise but nowhere like it used too,the neighbour saw a huge branch (small trunk size) also fly in the air onto the roof but it wouldve been the early 90s I say when I wasnt here.Do get twigs however.

[Razor]

So do I.. for the better. The last big blowjob up here I have just found some roofing issues & certainly dont need galeforce SW'ers.. or any kind of SW'ers right now. As storm starved as I am..

That central pressure is nothing to sneeze at however.

hahahaha!

[Tornado Tim]

So do I.. for the better. The last big blowjob up here I have just found some roofing issues & certainly dont need galeforce SW'ers.. or any kind of SW'ers right now. As storm starved as I am..

That central pressure is nothing to sneeze at however.

hahahaha!

You have got to like Dale eh, LOL hahahahahaha

I still remember him fondly referring to a thunderstorm being a angry bitch, hahahahahaha

Now onto the weather:

On Friday night based on the GFS it looks like an active cold front will reach the West coast on the central upper north island bringing the possibility for embedded t-storms.
A warm NW to WNW should keep temps overnight relatively warm.

Could be a chance of night lightning show if the models dont change much.

[NZstorm]

Yes, Fridays front for the west of the North Island could be worth watching out for. Just hope the instability can be there on the day.

Will be interesting to see if the likes of Hokitika can get some snow out of this polar set up. Not likely they would see much snow but they may get sleet/flurry in the heavier showers. Snow is not unheard of on the West Coast.

[David]

I wonder if I can beat this year's highest gust I have recorded here (only 63km/h) on Friday or Saturday...W and NW do not seem to get that strong here

I remember when some of us were on the Manukau Heads in 2008, with a NW'er gusting 120km/h (highest gusts out this way in the same period were 50km/h)

[jamie]

I remember when some of us were on the Manukau Heads in 2008, with a NW'er gusting 120km/h (highest gusts out this way in the same period were 50km/h)

was a fun day that one!

Im glad ive got my station back up and running. ive got 90km/h to beat.

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S do not have much in the forecast for wind as yet...
latest GFS has ramped things up again, after earlier down playing it...yes?

I see though they do have a 6m swell in the forecast for that west coast now.
you dont see that forecast very often!

[Avalanche]

Yea i gotta say the GFS models can be so confusing one minute its real bad next run says its almost not happening . i think wellington will be windy when isnt it still touch an go but am startting to feel it aint as good as it was a couple of days ago . If that high above cape reinga wasnt there i think this southerly could have been alot better .

[Tornado Tim]

GFS is starting to firm up the scenario for thunderstorms as the front passes through in the late afternoon early evening.

Taranaki, Auckland, Waikato, BOP and parts of Northland seem to be in the firing line.

As the low starts to progress up the the country during the afternoon the upper air temperature will start to drop even more to around -27°C

At this stage cloud conditions look OK/good on Friday as it is partly cloudy so it has the possibility to heat up the land before the front hits. Thats a good sign

Keep an eye out on the models everyone

Upper air temps over the SI are expected to get down to -35°C @ 500mb! Now thats extremely cold!

[spwill]

Upper air temps over the SI are expected to get down to -35°C! Now thats extremely cold!

Perhaps -40C (500 level) over Invercargill Saturday evening.

Looks like more pulses of cold air catching the south next week in a westerly flow, a very slow moving High near South Australia helping maintain the cold flow.

[David]

This has got to be one of the 'busiest' severe weather outlook maps I have seen for a while

[Tim S]

I see though they do have a 6m swell in the forecast for that west coast now.
you dont see that forecast very often!

How often would you? I thought swells that size would be fairly common for the West coast, especially during winter/spring. I know in Perth we'd get a 6m swell about once or twice a year and that is around 10 degrees further north.

Looking forward to Sat, Metservice has snow down to 500m for the Nelson Lakes NP, if that happens it will be the lowest the snows fallen in this region this year. Although Murchison did get some in July I think, but not much fell further to the NE.

Heading for a cold one tonight if the wind and cloud stays away, already down to 3.2C here.

[Avalanche]

What does 500mb mean ? would love to know cheers