General November Weather

[Area51]

Classic seabreeze convergence taking place following the Southern Motorway over the Papakura/Manukau area presently. 10kt SW at Auckland Airport while at Ardmore its 10kt NE. Not sure if we will get any precipitation out of the cloud buildups.

[Richard]

Been a lovely day after the -2 frost, warmed to 22C by 4.00,the mountains are looking a lot clearer today,a sign that the anticyclone is starting to move away a little.

[spwill]

seabreeze convergence

Afternoon cloud over my house but the air is still dry so no showers developed. 9C - 20C for Auckland today.

[NZstorm]

Doesn't look like Auckland will get much rain off the front at the end of the week. And both gfs and ECMWF have high pressure dominating next week.

[Michael]

Maybe its the transition period,the anticyclone belt repositioning and come high summer maybe some subtropical stuff.

[David]

Getting too dry for the garden, but I am finding the evenings are generally very pleasant for some exercise
Which is especially necessary at the moment after a recent birthday feast!!

[NZstorm]

Does anyone look at the CFS model, Climate forecast system? Up until now I have ignored this but with the recent computer upgrades the NCEP reckon this model could offer improved guidance. The idea of it is obviously to gauge the longer term trends. This model suggests the trend for high pressure over and to the east of NZ will persist in the coming weeks.

CFS chart for November 23rd.

[Tornado Tim]

Does anyone look at the CFS model, Climate forecast system? Up until now I have ignored this but with the recent computer upgrades the NCEP reckon this model could offer improved guidance.

Yea I had a look at that model around 2 weeks ago, that weatheronline.co.uk site seems very good as you have the modeling systems all in 1 place

[Manukau heads obs]

last time it rained here was on the 19th Oct......
I have been telling farmers that these big highs centered further south could mean dry up to xmas
but hopefully will mean they will have moved far enough south by Jan/Feb to open the door to tropical rain systems then......

[Michael]

I cant find that far out...direct url please?
Anyway look at this funny troughy thing in the tasman,this morns chart its developed overnight.

[Manukau heads obs]

that might be a swirl setup by taranaki ?

[spwill]

This model suggests the trend for high pressure over and to the east of NZ will persist in the coming weeks.

Better to have the slow moving highs out east rather than west.

The seasonal pattern looks to be running early this year so I think we may have humid weather here by December and some lows from the north bringing rain.

[Manukau heads obs]

so I think we may have humid weather here by December

You might be correct there...I would back that horse

[jamie]

The seasonal pattern looks to be running early this year so I think we may have humid weather here by December and some lows from the north bringing rain.

Yep i agree with that completely.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This weeks weather has been awful really in Christchurch. Not a cloud in the sky for days but the northeaster is cold and not pleasent at all! Bring on the lows, they give us nice warm weather here (as silly as that sounds)

[Richard]

This weeks weather has been awful really in Christchurch. Not a cloud in the sky for days but the northeaster is cold and not pleasent at all! Bring on the lows, they give us nice warm weather here (as silly as that sounds)

Yer i know what ya mean,i work down your way outside and that wind has not been the most pleasant this week,even though the mornings have been so cold here its nice to hope out of the car to a warm calm evening.

[RWood]

This weeks weather has been awful really in Christchurch. Not a cloud in the sky for days but the northeaster is cold and not pleasent at all! Bring on the lows, they give us nice warm weather here (as silly as that sounds)

I'll never denigrate a sunny day, even if the "quality code" for some wouldn't be all that high. I've spent virtually my entire life in comparatively cloudy climates by world standards, while my real preference would be for about 3000+ hours sunshine a year, or at the very least 2500. Unlike an certain Australian with unusual preferences, I don't generally welcome cloudy days at all, particularly showery/wet ones.

[Michael]

I like the current weather a lot,though Id take even rainy drizzly days and calm or a northerly direction over those partly cloudy boring SW days anytime.Wind can be annoying at times.

[snowstormwatcher]

Nice day here today blue skes not a cloud in the sky reached a high of 21 degrees.

[Richard]

A NW wind this morning so much milder morning for a change,9C.
This wind will also help stop the temp from climbing to high today also.

[Orion]

3.8 degrees at 6am - this has fallen to 3.7 now - and a ground fog, misty for maybe 15 feet above ground, visibility 100 yards. Should foretoken a nice warm day here.

[Manukau heads obs]

we ended up with 1.6mm of rain last night from the sea breeze convergence line that moved over us.,.
first time have heard rain on the roof in nearly 3 weeks!

[Michael]

Extremely light drizzle here,can feel it outside and can see it against the trees if looking carefully

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Interesting set up here on Friday. Its been bone dry here for months. Infact had the hose on the garden most days since just after the earthquake. All week the GFS has been showing the chance of some heavy rain for Coastal Canterbury in particular. I chose not to say anything to see if it pans out for the next few runs and it seems to be the case. Metservice are underestimating it seems with "showers and cold southerlies". It looks more like rain than showers for a start. The airflow is southerly for once bringing thedecent rain, rather than something from the north like in parts of winter. So more likely to get hit this time. Im more inclined to go with Blue skies who say 20-50mm is possible Friday. I hope metservice are right though cause it isnt looking good for cricket (knowing the council around here these days and there ground conditions)

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Ok ill go eat my hat! Just as i say all that for the first time this week the GFS run as completely discarded that event with maybe some showers moving up during the afternoon. Heres hoping!

Anyways, once again for the umpteenth day in a row not a cloud in the sky. Today is a lot more pleasant though with a lighter NNE and 21 degrees currently here. I see Tauranga had 276 hours of sunshine (leading main city) with Christchurch behind on 275 hours for October. However of the main cities, Christchurch was the coolest and driest.