General December Weather

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CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Lovely, beautfiul morning here. Blue dome skies not a breath of wind and 18 degrees currently. Off to Westport later tonight till the 27th and then on 27th off to Kaiteriteri for 2 weeks. Look to be in the firing line for heavy rain on the drive from westport to kaiteriteri on that day and into Tuesday! Ive forgotten what rain looks like in this neck of the woods so shall be good ;)

By the way...Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to All. Another great year on the forum with many more to come! :cute:
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Weetbicks »

I can confirm another shitty weather day for Christmas in Invercargill...
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Flutterbye »

Weetbicks wrote:I can confirm another shitty weather day for Christmas in Invercargill...

Ahhh - so you're the reason the weather turned! :lol:

Breezy but dry for the majority of the day in the city where I was.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

certainly not a shitty here today,with a wind that swung from the NW around to a Westerly at times and a high 23.5.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Weetbicks »

Flutterbye wrote:Ahhh - so you're the reason the weather turned! :lol:

Breezy but dry for the majority of the day in the city where I was.
Must have been me :) All I've heard from the olds is how the weather has been so great up until yesterday and now it's back to crap - well christmas day has been crap like today for about the last 10 years by my memory!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Another day of NW wind coming up (6 days now of non stop wind),oh well keeps the nights warmer,currently 15C with truck loads of thick high cloud.

Boxing Day - chocolates for breakfast \:D/
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

All I've heard from the olds is how the weather has been so great up until yesterday
southland looks to have had a good run of weather through late Oct/Nov to early Dec from what I noticed alright
(highs often in the 20's etc)
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by spwill »

ECMWF suggesting the Westerly pattern will drop out early in the NewYear.

Calm and overcast for Auckland this morning, 17C. The sun should make an appearence today with quite a good afternoon.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

The high cloud we had yesterday has cleared on sat pic which means this low cloud should burn off easily.

Looks like a big rainfall hit coming for western areas in the next 2-3 days. The gfs has 300mm for Hokitika!!!!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Heres hoping that tracks a little further north to Westport! Nice warm morning. I see 24 degrees in my area of Christchurch with no wind. Currently about 20 here in Westport although feels warmer with no wind and about, bright sunshine. Hoping for an eventful weather day in the next day or two before travelling to Kaiteri on Tuesday.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Driving to Golden Bay tomorrow, looking like some heavy falls while we put up the tent!!
Not much fun!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Current CHCH forecast for tonight: Fine with high cloud. Northeasterlies
Even the symbol is just the cloud symbol, yet it is raining outside and obvious on there radar that it is but thye havent updated the forecasts??? why?
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by melja »

Looks like that one rain event for the alps helped the lakes from empty to full with spilling starting today or tuesday but the rain thats rolling in over the next day or so looks to be worse with m/s saying up to 500mm.
Spent the last three days at benmore and there may be a camper or two thats gona get flooded :eek:
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

whoo 8-o 500mm,thats truck loads,haven't been able to do a lot of swimming lately in the Hurunui because of being so dirty. q-

Anyway,a lovely mild morning,still have the wind that's constantly changing direction from SE right round to the West.
Overnight low 17C
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Good Solid rain here in Westport this morning. Hoping for a big total here today will take a few drives about throughout the day!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

It does look very wet for the West Coast today, the only limiting factor is the air is stable. Good to see a La Nina drought not occurring in the hydro region.

Clear morning in Auckland with 20C with humidity rising quickly this morning as the moist air arrives.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by cantygal »

NW in Kirwee overnight and temp didn't drop below 20C. MetService have put the high up to 31 for Chch today I see.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Orion »

28 deg. here now, NW, overcast with faint sunlight & shadows at times, 35% humidity.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I have not seen M/S talk about 160kmh winds (gusts) in a weather warning before!

I am surprised there is not more discussion around this developing system....500mm of rain and 160 kmh winds for some areas of NZ are forecasted!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by David »

I didn't see the warnings because the metservice warning page shows no warnings or watches...sort out your site Metservice! o_O
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Of course clicking the links above the map to the Warnings and watches reveals there are indeed warnings and watches in place...
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Manukau heads obs wrote:I have not seen M/S talk about 160kmh winds (gusts) in a weather warning before!
Just got off the phone from discussing this.

They are covering their bases either way for tomorrow.
Severe Weather Warnings wrote: ISSUED BY MetService AT
9:32 am 27-Dec-2010

VERY HEAVY RAIN ABOUT THE SOUTH ISLAND WEST COAST, SOUTHERN ALPS AND OTAGO TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW SPREADS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH ISLAND ON TUESDAY

SEVERE GALE NORTHERLIES ABOUT CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND ON TUESDAY

A cold front will lie slow-moving over the southern South Island today before sweeping quickly across the remainder of the country tomorrow.

A strong moist northwesterly flow ahead of this front will bring very heavy rain to the South Island west coast and the Southern Alps today and early tomorrow, and to central and southern parts of the North Island on Tuesday. Heaviest falls are expected about the Westland ranges where up to 500mm is forecast, with some exceptionally intense falls at times. Elsewhere between 200 and 300mm of rain is forecast for parts of Buller, Nelson, the Tararua ranges, Mt Taranaki, and also the headwaters of the Canterbury and Otago rivers. Other areas which can expect heavy rain during the next couple of days include Otago, Marlborough, Wellington, the central North Island, and the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty. This heavy rain will cause river and stream levels to rise rapidly, and there may be slips, surface flooding and poor visibility making driving conditions hazardous.

North to northwesterly winds are also expected to reach severe gale about many parts of central New Zealand for a time on Tuesday, with the strongest winds near Cook Strait where gusts may reach 160km/hr. Gusts of 120km/hr or higher can also be expected elsewhere from Taupo to North Canterbury. Gusts of this strength could cause damage to trees, powerlines and insecure buildings, as well as make driving conditions hazardous especially for motorcyclists and high sided vehicles.

This is a very significant event with heavy rain and severe gales affecting many areas. People across all of New Zealand could be affected, and everyone is advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED: Fiordland

FORECAST

Periods of heavy rain are expected today. In the 12 hours from 9am to 9pm today (Monday), 60-80mm are likely, mainly north of George Sound.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 2800 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Westland south of Franz Josef.

FORECAST

Rain is expected to become heavier today. In the 24 hours from 9am Monday to 9am Tuesday, 200-250mm of rain is expected about the ranges. Heaviest falls should today, with rainfall rates of 20-30mm/hr.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Westland north of Franz Josef

FORECAST

Periods of very heavy rain are expected today and tomorrow morning. In the 27 hours from 9am today (Monday) to midday Tuesday, 300-500mm of rain is expected about the ranges, and up to 200mm near the coast. Some exceptional intensities are likely, with rainfall rates reaching 30-50mm/hr at times.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Otago

FORECAST

1. Heavy rain is expected about the main divide of the Southern Alps today and tomorrow morning. In the 24 hours from 9am today (Monday) to 9am Tuesday, 150-200mm of rain is expected near the main divide, with about 100mm spilling over to within 10km east of the divide. Intensities reaching 20-30mm/hr at times. The greatest accumulations will be north of Lake Wakatipu.

2. Over remaining parts of Otago, widespread rain is expected to develop this afternoon and evening in a cooler southerly flow, and continue through to Tuesday afternoon. In the 24 hours from midday Monday to midday Tuesday, 75-100mm of rain may accumulate in some places. Heaviest falls are likely north of Dunedin and Alexandra.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Headwaters of the main Canterbury lakes and rivers.

FORECAST

Heavy rain is expected today and tomorrow morning. In the 27 hours from 9am today (Monday) to midday Tuesday, 250-350mm of rain is expected near the main divide, and up to 150mm spilling over to 15km east of the divide. Maximum intensities of 30-40mm/hr from Monday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Buller

FORECAST

Rain is expected to become heavier today. In the 30 hours from 9am today (Monday) to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm of rain is expected, particularly about the ranges. Heaviest falls overnight when rainfall rates may reach 30-40mm/hr.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy rain is expected to develop this evening. In the 16 hours from 6pm today (Monday) to 10am Tuesday, expect 200-300mm of rain about the ranges of Northwest Nelson, and up to 100mm elsewhere especially near the Bryant ranges. Intensities may reach 20-30mm/hr overnight.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Marlborough

FORECAST

Periods of heavy rain are expected on Tuesday morning. In the 12 hours from midnight tonight (Monday) to midday Tuesday, expect 100-150mm about the Richmond ranges and Marlborough Sounds, and 60-80mm elsewhere in Marlborough.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Wellington and the Kapiti Coast

FORECAST

A period of heavy rain is expected on Tuesday morning. In the 9 hours from 3am to midday Tuesday, 60-80mm of rain is likely, with rainfall rates reaching 10-15mm/hr at times.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Tararua Range

FORECAST

Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours from midnight to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm is expected, mainly about the southern Tararuas.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Taranaki

FORECAST

Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours from midnight to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm of rain is expected on Mt Taranaki, and 60-80mm elsewhere (mainly north and east of the mountain). Rainfall rates may reach 30-40mm/hr on the mountain.

AREA/S AFFECTED: The central North Island high country from Te Kuiti to Tongariro National Park.

FORECAST

Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 12 hours between 4am and 4pm Tuesday, expect up to 200mm about the mountains of Tongariro National Park, and 60-80mm elsewhere.

AREA/S AFFECTED: The ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty (east of Kawerau)

FORECAST

Periods of heavy rain are expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours between 6am and 9pm Tuesday, up to 100mm of rain is likely.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED: Marlborough, excluding the Sounds

FORECAST

North to northwest winds are expected to reach gale in exposed places from late this evening through to about mid-morning Tuesday, with possible gusts of 130km/hr.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds

FORECAST

Northerly gales are expected to become severe in places from later this evening, with damaging gusts of around 160km/hr likely through to around midday Tuesday.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Wairarapa

FORECAST

North to northwest winds are expected to rise to gale overnight, with gusts of 150km/hr possible through to early Tuesday afternoon.

AREA/S AFFECTED: The central and lower North Island from Taranaki to Taupo down to Kapiti.

FORECAST

Northerly winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed places overnight Monday peaking in the morning before easeing from the west early afternoon. Gusts of 120km/hr are likely in exposed places and gusts of 150km/h are possible about higher terrain, especially around the Central Plateau.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Gisborne and Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

North to northwest gales are expected to develop about exposed places early Tuesday morning and should ease late afternoon. Gusts of 130km/hr are possible in exposed places during this time, especially near the ranges.

AREA/S AFFECTED: Inland North Canterbury

FORECAST

North to northwest winds are expected to reach gale in exposed places from this evening through to early Tuesday morning, with possible gusts of 120km/hr, especially near the foothills.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 pm Monday 27-Dec-2010

Forecast prepared by: John Crouch and Andy Downs
Severe Weather Watch wrote: Valid to: 10:03am Tuesday 28 December 2010

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND,AUCKLAND,WAIKATO,COROMANDEL PENINSULA,WAITOMO,BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA,NELSON,BULLER

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1003hrs 27-Dec-2010

PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES FOR BULLER TONIGHT, AND NELSON AND THE NORTHERN NORTH ISLAND ON TUESDAY

A cold front is expected to sweep across northern and central New Zealand on Tuesday bringing a period of heavy rain and very strong north to northwesterly winds to many areas.

Warnings for heavy rain and severe northerly gales have been issued for many parts of the central and southern North Island, and for parts of the South Island. See latest Severe Weather Warning for more detail.

Over the northern North Island from Waitomo and Bay of Plenty northwards, a period of gusty northerly gales is expected on Tuesday morning and early afternoon, along with brief heavy rain.

North or northwesterly winds may also reach gale force for a time about Buller this evening, and Nelson on Tuesday morning.

At this stage winds in general are not expected to reach severe gale in these areas, however gusts may exceed 110km/hr in a few exposed places. Forecasters will therefore maintain a watch for possible severe gales in these areas.

The watch for heavy rain in Nelson and Buller has been upgraded to a warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Monday 27 December 2010

Forecast prepared by: John Crouch
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

You can see the low level jet that develops with the front over central NZ tomorrow morning on the 900mb GFS chart. (aprox 1000m elevation). Fairly exceptional wind flows topping 80kts at that level. Pity the atmos wasn't unstable!
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Lacertae »

Cool, I've got tomorrow off and I could go out for a few shots. ;)
So what do the Canterbury experts think of this ? Optimistic, pessimistic, else ?

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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Thanks for posting the warning. We certainly don't need more gales, after last week's effort which brought down trees, blew someone's mown hay into fence, buckled an irrigator, blew our goat's house over (don't know if it was occupied at the time), and parched the ground of all the good rain we'd had. Will keep an eye out for any thunderclouds, however.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

The problem with tomorrow will be surface heating, and if any storm activity does develope which it most likly will the activity will be embedded within the very heavy rain as the wind swings gale SW.
So it wont be very photogenic stuff, more i am picking the typical odd occasional clap here and there.
Could be some minor flooding about though with a good 30-40mm possible in some areas, and as we know we havnt had alot of rain latly meaning it will just run off dry soils.
I would have chosen a moderate risk myself for tomorrow, just with the nature of past time low systems which have crossed south of the Peninnsula and deepened.
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