General January Weather

[Michael]

Then theres ogimet as well used in Europe.

[NZstorm]

The ECMWF is done at Bracknell. Not sure if the ukmet is done there as well, possibly would be.

[Nev]

I believe MetService use initial data from UM, GFS and ECMWF and runs it through the MM5 and WRF models, which takes into account local geography more than global models are capable of. NIWA on the other hand, with their huge investment in a supercomputer, have developed their own model known as NZLAM (New Zealand Limited Area Model), which is primarily based on the UM model.

[spwill]

So your telling me the model outlooks posted here: http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... cast-7-day aren't a metservice model but simply a republication of the GFS model? Surely if they did that they would have to disclose that, they do say they are 'computer generated' but don't specify they come from an external source.

No, I'm saying it looks like GFS My guess is most of the forecast information for NZ originates from Europe/USA

[David]

Hmmm, I see dry weather Friday, some rain on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, drying up on Tuesday...is this some sort of joke

[bmo]

Looks like we are not allowed to enjoy our weekends anymore!

[Tim S]

Hrmm the plot thickens found this on here from 2008, originally posted by Paul Mallinson:

I would point out to people looking at these forecast rainfall maps that:

1. they are based on initial data from ONE source (eg main model data sources are Exeter, EC and NCEP)
2. this data is run through ONE forecast model
3. and you are looking at the result of ONE forecast run

here: http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... =21&t=3031

This was in response to when the 7 day rainfall forecasts first appeared on the MS website

Sounds to me like every weather agency is copying off everyone else, I hope the teacher doesn't find out! Lets hope the smart guy at the front of the class knows what he is doing otherwise we're all stuffed!

[NZstorm]

Exeter is the UKmet and NCEP is gfs.

[Orion]

Thicker fog this morning, visibility barely 40 metres. 14 degrees, 79% humidity. Leaves on trees just stirring in an easterly drift. Can feel fog particles "falling", it's a very damp day!

[NZstorm]

Today should warm up quite a bit in Auckland, I'm guessing 28C. We don't have a cooling SW or NE. Currently 16C.

[Richard]

The NW kelp it rather mild last last along with a odd big gust,20.7C now,wont get over 30C today, expect the high cloud to increase during the day.

[spwill]

wont get over 30C today, .

Richard, what is the average January maximum temperature for your area? those inland SI valleys do warm up through summer.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Stunning morning here to start the day. Currently not a cloud in the sky and no wind to speak of. Sitting on 20 degrees. Maybe reaching 30 degrees for the 6th time here this month.

[spwill]

those inland SI valleys do warm up through summer.

they can also cool down

[Razor]

Stunning morning here to start the day. Currently not a cloud in the sky and no wind to speak of. Sitting on 20 degrees. Maybe reaching 30 degrees for the 6th time here this month.

Yep well on the way, 26 at Jeffs already...

[Orion]

That's lovely for you! still only 17.7 degrees here, dull; distant murk - at least the fog has cleared. But no sunshine yet. It'll come.

[Michael]

I call it a "car climate" sit in your car on even a windy partly sunny day it reaches 30c in the car,at night its freezing,though a car is a little more hotter in the sunshine.

those inland SI valleys do warm up through summer.

they can also cool down

[Richard]

wont get over 30C today, .

Richard, what is the average January maximum temperature for your area? those inland SI valleys do warm up through summer.

I dont know,never really worked it out,but i should start keeping a dairy

[Razor]

Next week looks to herald the return of the westerly flow for the manland so look for temps to soar again in the east for early Feb.

We made 27 around lunchtime today before the high cloud thickened up

[Philip Duncan]

I believe MetService use initial data from UM, GFS and ECMWF and runs it through the MM5 and WRF models, which takes into account local geography more than global models are capable of. NIWA on the other hand, with their huge investment in a supercomputer, have developed their own model known as NZLAM (New Zealand Limited Area Model), which is primarily based on the UM model.

I think MetVuw is also soley GFS data?

[David]

Sure has been summery today, lots of sunshine, few clouds, max 26C.

[NZstorm]

From the airport metars around Auckland at 4pm, Whenuapai 26C, Ardmore 27C, Auckland Airport 25C.

[Nev]

I think MetVuw is also soley GFS data?

Yes, MetVUW state that their Forecast Charts are based on data supplied the US NWS, aka NOAA, who run the GFS model.

[Weetbicks]

It has clouded over here this afternoon, still warm, around 20. We've had some rain this afternoon, large drop kind, makes everything smell so nice & summery !

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Had a shower here 10 minutes ago with very large drops, not enough to wet the ground. It surprised me with the cloud being so high it didnt look like it should be raining at all. Some very nice looking NW cloud up high this evening however!