Ex-TC's affecting NZ - Jan 17-19

[David]

Thought it deserved it's own topic. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the ex-TC, heading straight for the NI.

The image below is for 1pm 19 Jan, 7 days out - so the forecast could still change to drag it elsewhere. Will be interesting to keep an eye on it!

[Michael]

Latest this stage TD03 as its still tropical depression is at 990hpa expecting it to go cyclone in 12 hours according to Nadi weather service.

[Vertigo]

i should add, there have been a few models showing it passing west of the north island and hitting the west coast. nevertheless, should be interesting

[Manukau heads obs]

the predicted path of the models will swing around alot more yet , going on past experience!
better to have it predicted to go west a bit...as often they tend ot go further east...

Will be interesting to keep an eye on it!

understatement of the year, LOL!

[spwill]

Yes, plenty of model variation as expected

[Tornado Tim]

understatement of the year, LOL!

I can tell your already excited Brian, as am I, LOL hahahaha

The weather plays a big part in our moods, LOL

[03Stormchaser]

Looking good:
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/20110111 ... 18-168.gif

[dan]

Latest gfs has it coming right down the east coast.... bring on the groundswell!

[Tim S]

ECM, doesn't, it has it heading straight for me. I consequently prefer ECM to GFS for this event.

Wind3285032and32mslp_Australia_144.gif

Still if you consider that these are 2 possible scenarios from 2 of the more reliable models out there it does look fairly promising (or ominous if your anything but a weather nut like we are! )

[dan]

I have no idea about where they get their information from but with one forecast putting the low off to the east, and one putting it off to the west, maybe that gives it a high chance of actually hitting us.. maybe.

[David]

Yeah typical - GFS has changed completely and has the low passing east of us!

[Richard]

Yeah typical - GFS has changed completely and has the low passing east of us!

And Weatherzone have it crossing the South Island,i wonder what the TAB odds are???

[Manukau heads obs]

the models are going to keep on changing....alot of it is fantasy..
latest ECMWF still on track to hit NZ...with a sister low to follow..whats up with that!

[Manukau heads obs]

is on the move again to the SW
easy to see the center now with the organised spiraling
has now moved just SW of the southern end of Vanuatu

[Michael]

At this stage the latest has it a degenerating TS just above N.Z (about 33S) on the 17th with it curving SSE.

[NZstorm]

NOGAPS and ECMWF have the remains of the TC crossing NZ early to mid next week and thats what I would go with. I think the gfs has been showing too much variability.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes latest ECMWF looks like a good hit alright
NI will get good rain if it goes just to the west of us like that


I have friends wanting to go camping at the top of the coromandel next week....
I have told them at this stage to not go or delay.....

[dan]

Latest Metservice and GFS has the low all but dead and passing slightly down the West coast.. the complete opposite to what they were saying yesterday. The ECMF at least doesn't keep changing, but it's looking like a bit of an anti-climax.

[Manukau heads obs]

latest M/S marine forecast has it

On Monday, a tropical low (currently TC Vania)is expected to drift southwards, spreading a moist northeast flow over the upper North Island.

Forecast:
For the Manukau Harbour:
Thursday: Southerly 15 knots, dying out tonight. Slight sea becoming smooth tonight. Mainly fine, but fair visibility in showers developing this evening.
Friday: Variable 5 knots, southwest 10 knots developing for a time in the afternoon. Smooth sea becoming slight for a time in the afternoon. Fair visibility in a few showers.
For the Waitemata Harbour:
Thursday: Southeast 15 knots, tending northeast 10 knots this afternoon. Sea slight. Mainly fine, but fair visibility in showers developing this evening.
Friday: Northeast 10 knots. Sea slight. Fair visibility in a few showers, clearing in the evening.
For the Hauraki Gulf and for Bream Head to Cape Colville:
Thursday: Southeast 20 knots, tending northeast 15 knots this afternoon and easing to 10 knots this evening. Moderate sea becoming slight this afternoon. Mainly fine, but fair visibility in showers developing this evening.
Friday: Northeast 10 knots rising to 15 knots for a time in the afternoon and evening. Sea slight. Fair visibility in a few showers, clearing in the evening.

Outlook:
Saturday: Northeast 15 knots. Fine and cloudy periods.
Sunday: Northeast 15 knots. Cloud increasing.
Monday: Northeast rising to 20 knots. Cloudy, patchy late rain

but it's looking like a bit of an anti-climax.

how can you say that this early on?
we have had remains of TC that still pack a punch near the center...I remember one that went down the west of the NI way back in the late 80's (87 maybe) that produced severe gale NNW in the western Auckland area..unpredicted at the time....no rain...just real hot and humid with real fast moving cloud...as the tight low centre passed just to the west....

[spwill]

Latest GFS is more in line now with current ECMWF.

[Manukau heads obs]

wow
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 511web.txt
now forecasted to reach 100 knots gusts peak intensity
and
BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW BY TAU 120.

so we are talking about a major system heading our way going by this latest info

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S have a news release about it now too
http://metservice.com/about/news

[dan]

Haha I've just been disappointed for the last several years, cyclones looking like they are coming our way and then just die out or miss us completely. Ok I'll be more optimistic

[Manukau heads obs]

the ducks have been all lined up for this one though from the begining

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S severe outlook update:

Tropical Cyclone Vania currently near southern Vanuatu is expected to move south over the weekend, towards Norfolk Island and should become reclassified as an extra-tropical low. The track and intensity of this low beyond this time is still very uncertain. However, there is a possibility that it could affect northern and central parts of New Zealand late Monday or more likely Tuesday. Given this uncertainty we have only posted a low risk of heavy rain and severe gales for northern and western parts of the North Island and northern parts of the South Island, as indicated on the chart. However, this system has the potential to bring very stormy conditions to parts of New Zealand and people are advised to remain up to date with the latest forecasts, especially as we go into next week.