Significant tropical-rain event 22-25 Jan

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jamie
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Significant tropical-rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Thought this low deserves a topic of its own.

Mestervice are using some very strong words on their latest severe weather outlook. We should see some very high rainfall figures in Northland, Coromandle, BOP and East Cape.

This is certainly something to watch. What i have noticed with the models is the closer we get the higher the rainfall looks. Which is a good trend if your looking farward to some heavy rain and action weather.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Also something i noticed is the outlook map. I have never seen such a large portion of the North Island under high confidence of heavy rain. Almost the entire North Island is under moderate chance.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Shepherds Valley WX »

Just about every Wairarapa farmer has every finger and toe crossed that this rain even comes to fruition. MetVuw models looks good for significant rain East of the Tararuas on Monday. Heres hoping :) Pity about Wings over Wairarapa though, first weekend in months where significant rain is forecast.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Weetbicks »

Getting some real tropical downpours right now in christchurch, not a breath of wind and its coming right down in buckets!
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Hmm, I think I might be nervous overnight tonight, tomorrow arvo through Monday morning. Fingers crossed it won't be too bad though.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by David »

I looked at the gfs this morning and looks pretty unexciting for Auck...has dropped the rain amounts quite a lot, as most of the rain is expected to head east down Coromandel instead :( Here's hoping it's wrong?
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by David »

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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Holy crap. Check out the totals!!!! Notice they are putting warings out about the firth of thames
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Shepherds Valley WX »

Just in from moving the cattle and am disappointed to see this mornings MetVuw models showing the low now missing the Wairarapa and passing offshore to the east. Looks like only drizzle from this event for us now. :-(

Possibly another reasonable event later next week, but to far out to have any accuracy.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Chris Raine »

We've had some decent showers overnight and this morning about 6mm so far since midnight . A bit more than the forcasted drizzle
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by NZstorm »

I've just glanced the 18Z gfs and shows persistent heavy rain on the way for Bay of Plenty. Looks like a flooding scenario for eastern BOP in particular. Heavy rain obviously on the way for Coramandel and Northland as well.

GFS aslo indicates the possibility afternoon/evening thunderstorms over Waikato/Auckland Monday.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the models are still flip flopping on the exact location of the trough line/low
so until it all develops, wont know for sure who or where will get the most rain
(coromandel is a sure bet though...I have friends camping at the top end...I told them not to go...they went anyway...have tried sending a text message....)

just posted at the same time as NZstorm...

interesting that M/S seem to be taking an average of the model runs where the heavy rain will be
(i.e going with it affecting more than just eastern areas)


rain radar shows alot of heavy rain moving south onto eastern northland now..
and the barometer is starting to drop here now...and the wind has shifted slightly more E from SE
I think its all starting to come together!
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by David »

funny seeing their warnings out but their 7 day model shows not much over Auckland/Waikato/Waitomo etc...
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I think M/S are taking the middle road of the last couple of days of model runs
rain radar shows the first rain band moving SSW already
and sat image shows the low starting to deepen now just NNE of Norfolk island
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like a new update:
Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland
FORECAST

Rain is now expected to become heavy sooner than first forecast in these areas, and periods of heavy rain are expected during much of Saturday as well as Sunday. Consequently rainfall accumulations are now forecast to be higher. From midday Saturday to midnight Sunday, generally 150 to 250mm of rain is expected. However, for northern and eastern areas of Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel Peninsula, accumulations may reach 350mm. In all areas, rainfall intensities of 25 to 30mm/hr are possible.
:eek:
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by David »

That's incredible! 8-o
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by iomkiwi »

Manukau heads obs wrote:looks like a new update:
Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland
FORECAST

Rain is now expected to become heavy sooner than first forecast in these areas, and periods of heavy rain are expected during much of Saturday as well as Sunday. Consequently rainfall accumulations are now forecast to be higher. From midday Saturday to midnight Sunday, generally 150 to 250mm of rain is expected. However, for northern and eastern areas of Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel Peninsula, accumulations may reach 350mm. In all areas, rainfall intensities of 25 to 30mm/hr are possible.
:eek:
Yes could be 'interesting' up here!
I thought that warning warranted copying on to my home page, although my WXSIM is still only forecasting about 70mm total
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

NZstorm wrote: GFS aslo indicates the possibility afternoon/evening thunderstorms over Waikato/Auckland Monday.
With a forecast sounding indicating a rather warm -8°C atm @ 500mb I would say thats unlikely. Li's for that time arnt that favorable either.....
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

M/S rain forecast on their website now showing the rain over the upper NI again
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by David »

the 2pm radar is a bit deceiving...looks like the rain has arrived but still completely dry ;)
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

starting to rain here
like the way its "filling in" on the rain radar
i.e the dry slot is getting smaller with rain bands developing right over the top of it

the M/S rain radar shows a comination of the the BOP rain radar overlay, which in the auckland area is at its limit...and so will be picking up rain at the top of the clouds that is not falling to the ground
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wow
M/S severe weather outlook talks of possibility that the low will have deepened enough to bring severe winds on monday...
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by bmo »

just started to rain in kaukapakapa
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by Orion »

Once again, I'm grateful for the input to this forum which prompted me to pass on an advisory to family (close to your area, cowkop) 22 hours ago.
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Re: Significant tropical rain event 22-25 Jan

Unread post by bmo »

Sunday 23
Rain, with heavy falls, possibly thundery during the morning. Winds turning northeast during the morning, then rising to gale gusting 100 km/h in exposed places.

Looking forward to this!
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