Significant tropical-rain event 22-25 Jan

[Vertigo]

all said tho, this has been a great rain producer, much needed!

and the low is fairly impressive in its vigorous rotation, seems almost tropical in nature, despite the low SST's

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, the low seems to be developing a loop now (displaced at the high level from the low level (i.e tilted over low )?
so it might deepen more yet
which will mean the gales forecasted might eventuate yet

yes, great rain, farmers will be very happy, will end up being the best summer for a long time, especially if we get another system fri/sat!

[Brassnz]

87mm here since 9am yesterday. Moving house today and tomorrow, not the best in this rain.

[David]

hmmm - doesn't look like we are going to get near the 150mm+ forecast with this clearance moving in much earlier than expected?

Still waiting for updated warnings to see what MS thinks

[bmo]

MS UPDATE


ISSUED BY MetService AT
9:18 am 23-Jan-2011

Significant Heavy Rain for Northern New Zealand. A period of severe northeast gales for Coromandel Peninsula.

A slow moving trough of low pressure extends from Gisborne across northern New Zealand to a low of subtropical original north of New Zealand. Rain associated with the trough has been heavy over northern New Zealand overnight Saturday and this morning. The low is expected to move south over Northland this evening to lie just west of Auckland at midnight, then track eastwards across the North Island during Monday. During Sunday and early Monday, heavy rainfall is likely in regions from Northland down to Whanganui and the central North Island high country, and across the Bay of Plenty to Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. The heaviest rain is expected to be about the Bay of Plenty, the central high country and the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Here, 200 to 300mm could accumulate from this morning until Monday morning. While 100 to 200mm is likely in other areas. These rainfall amounts are on top of what has already fallen.People in these areas are advised that this rain will cause rivers and stream to rise quickly, with slips and localised flooding possible, and may make driving conditions dangerous. Considering the amount of significant heavy rain which could result from this event, people are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings. Additionally for eastern areas from Auckland to the Bay of Plenty, high sea levels produced by strong north to northeast onshore winds accompanying the rain could restrict rivers flowing into the sea. As the low moves south over Northland and to the west of Auckland, there is now a greater risk that northeast winds coould rise to damaging gale force for a time in exposed places of the Coromandel Peninsula this evening, with gusts of 120km/hr possible. Winds of these strength have the potential to damage to trees, powerlines and lift insecure roofs and loosen boats from their moorings.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland
FORECAST

Periods of heavy rain are expected to continue until late Sunday or early Monday. From 9am to 10pm Sunday for Northland, and from 9am Sunday until 1am Monday for Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland, 100 to 150mm of rain is expected. Rainfall intensities of 25 to 35mm/hr are possible.

[NZstorm]

Its the warm front thats the heavy rainfall producer and I reckon once thats through the event is over.

Very heavy rain here currently.

[Vertigo]

the rain is just about to stop here on the shore i would say. its made a couple of last minute sprints tho, some good downpours.

actually, looks like some land interaction is producing some moderate falls behind the front line for the shore and north.

as i say all this, another heavy shower arrives

edit: looks like bay of plenty is getting some very heavy rain right now

[Manukau heads obs]

hmmm - doesn't look like we are going to get near the 150mm+ forecast with this clearance moving in much earlier than expected?

I suspect there will be more rain bands yet...i.e to develop....
and the models show the low slowing down too...
also the 150mm is for ranges in the area (e.g Waitakere ranges, Hunua ranges, ranges of Warkworth....will be interesting that those areas have had so far...we get a bit of orographic lift here....now up to 89mm total here

[bmo]

Just had a small but very heavy downpour

[David]

Latest warning seems a bit over the top for us? another 100-150mm, radar does not suggest this at all...
Anyway, my station's record wettest day here now, only need another 29mm to hit 100mm

[bmo]

Latest warning seems a bit over the top for us? another 100-150mm, radar does not suggest this at all...

Maybe MS thinks that all of a sudden a massive rain band will attack Auckland out of nowhere?

[Weetbicks]

Can someone tell me if it is raining up in the North Island? Radar is inconclusive....

[bmo]

Can someone tell me if it is raining up in the North Island? Radar is inconclusive...

Yes it is raining ang heavy in some places

[bmo]

Having very heavy on off rain

[Vertigo]

i would say hes joking, cowkop

[Tornado Tim]

37.2mm over here at the moment (midnight reset) at around 4-7mm/hr

[bmo]

i would say hes joking, cowkop

know it just playing with it, should have said "no it's very sunny and warm thinking of going to the beach!"

[Manukau heads obs]

996.4 baro here now
this low center must be deeper than models showed...hence the forecast warning of severe gale NE to come for coromandel

[David]

Stopped raining here now, temp 21C, dewpoint 21C. Rising very fast again

[Manukau heads obs]

21C in howick?
wow, its still only 14.8C here!

[bmo]

it's around 17.6C here in Kaukapakapa winds are definitely picking up

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The rainfall rates in some areas of the Bay of Plenty in the last couple of hours have been extreme and plenty more to come for them yet...I think this is the most vulnerable area!

[Vertigo]

thats quite a steep gradient indeed.
rain has finally stopped here. great event, love these long drawn out drenches.

[bmo]

This thing is really of! Only 6mm? Don't think so i live only 5km from parakai and if got around 50mm today

[bmo]

The temp has just risen by 4 degrees in 20 minutes it's very hot outside now!