TC Wilma affecting N.I. - Jan 28-29

[Avalanche]

I was just reading on weatherwatch phil duncan was saying in the next 12 hours Cyclone Wilma could develop into a category 4 Cyclone so close to NZ as well. Your thoughts.

[Nev]

Umm... we have a thread on TC Wilma in the 'Weather Abroad' forum' forum - she's already at Cat 4.

However, we could do with a thread re Wilma's effects on NZ in the next few days, so I've renamed this thread accordingly.

[Avalanche]

Yep no worries wasnt sure cheers

[NZstorm]

I'm not seeing Wilma as a particularly big rainfall set up for NZ. The warm front looks to spread rain into the north on Friday but its not the same set up for precip that we had last weekend. But there should be some very heavy rain close to the storm centre but the gfs and Eu vary on how close it will come to NZ. The Met Service have shown zero faith in the gfs with no mention of a risk of severe gales over the north in their severe weather outlook.

[spwill]

The GFS has been consistent with the track of this Low.

This will be our third tropical system this month, an active January for tropical storms north of NZ.

[David]

The Met Service have shown zero faith in the gfs with no mention of a risk of severe gales over the north in their severe weather outlook.

Sounds like they are following a similar scenario to BOM's access model http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml which shows rain but no strong winds.

I agree GFS has been consistent though with the strong winds.

[jamie]

GFS has been consistent in path yes but for a while it had Wilma being very slow and not clearing the country until Monday.

[NZstorm]

Sounds like they are following a similar scenario to BOM's access model

The BOM access model is based on the Ukmet.

I notice JTWC say the UKmet scenario is unlikely and it is the only outlier.

[David]

MS 3 day model for 7am Sat, heavy rain centred over Auckland

[spwill]

This weekend is Auckland anniversary weekend so a big weekend for Auckland boaties but the main sailing day is Monday.

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S currently has their isobar weather maps as it not coming down this way at all (and instead glancing off the incoming tasman front and moving WNW)
hummmm
I guess its going to be a timing thing...the window of opportunity....

[Tim S]

Sounds like they are following a similar scenario to BOM's access model

The BOM access model is based on the Ukmet.

I tell you what I am learning a lot about how the various forecast models work from this event and the information posted here on the forum, thanks!

[spwill]

I think ECMWF might have it right with the low moving SE passing east of Northland Saturday morning,

[Manukau heads obs]

Fiji cyclone center has updated their info
930hpa I see it got down to at one stage!
they still have it at cat 4
and the track map as it as a cat 1 just offshore bay of islands on sat!

Copy of HURRICANE WARN 079 issued by NADI at 26-Jan-2011 19:10 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4
SOUTH 174.3 EAST AT 261800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 24.4S 174.3E AT 261800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S have lifted their watch now
so they are going with the BOM model of it not curving down this way...
if they have backed the wrong horse ,then....

[Manukau heads obs]

OK,,...the watch has gone, because warnings are now out
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... r-warnings

100 to 200mm forecasted....

[Nev]

Yup, sounds like deja vu to me...

[Manukau heads obs]

the models predicted this well ,way back on Monday...

[NZstorm]

GFS has picked it well although its current track looks just east of Cape Reinga. Time will tell how much wind comes with it but with its trajectory to the east of us I think we may be dodging a bullet as far as wind goes. Looks like there will be storm force winds (50kts) in the NE quadrant according to gfs!

[Manukau heads obs]

if it really did get down to 930hpa, then it could still be 980 or so hpa by the time it gets close to NZ?

amazing it still has a (small) eye now...and still looks very organised!

[Orion]

Once again I thank you experts for all the input which led me to txt the Auckland branch of my family about this 24 hours ago. Brilliant.

[Manukau heads obs]

Wilmas has done a bit of a swing to the WSW
hummm
maybe that might mean more of a direct hit when she does the recurve....or maybe she will "bounce" to the WNW after all?
its so intense....ohhh, what does it all mean?

still an eye and still looking good!
and still amazing rapid rotation of the cloud bands!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... wvgms.html

[Richard]

Wilmas has done a bit of a swing to the WSW

Fantastic just hope it keeps on tracking that direction for a bit longer yet before swinging around to the SE.

I see now there's another Topical low NW of Fiji that has a high risk of turning into yet another cyclone,what an amazing cyclone season this is turning out to be

[Tornado Tim]

Metservice now have a video about Wilma now

[tgsnoopy]

Far too quiet. Can barely hear him. How unprofessional.