General February Weather

[Orion]

Overcast is a little higher; 11.6 degrees; light rain continuing; wind has strengthened to fresh breeze with stronger gusts that boom in the chimney, southerly to south-easterly; cold, unpleasant.

[Skywatcher]

Light rain had eased but now it's heavy peaking at 21mm/h which will make search and rescue even more difficult !

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Only very light drizzle/rain here at times. Although signs it is starting to get a little more persistent, wouldnt expect much though

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like a possible thunder setup on Sunday, GFS is a little inconclusive at this stage.

Will keep you guys posted.......

[David]

I was in Wellington this afternoon, the S change was not even noticeable there. Not much wind there at all in fact! Seemed to be breezier at Auckland airport actually.

Enjoyed going above the clouds for the first time. I was surprised at the noticeable light turbulence every time we went through cumulus mediocris!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

High resolution radar shows the light drizzle about clearing quickly and moving out to sea.

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like a possible thunder setup on Sunday, GFS is a little inconclusive at this stage.

Looks like it applies to tomorrow as well
-14 to -15°C at 500mb expected with a LI of down to -1.5.

Troughy type action hopefully.......

Best place for a t-storm I would say is BOP and Eastern Waikato due to a nice inflow of warm moist air from a sea breeze. Could have something closer to home though

[Michael]

Thats why wellingtonians often love SW flows,it was terrible here today

I was in Wellington this afternoon, the S change was not even noticeable there. Not much wind there at all in fact! Seemed to be breezier at Auckland airport actually.

Enjoyed going above the clouds for the first time. I was surprised at the noticeable light turbulence every time we went through cumulus mediocris!

[spwill]

Thats why wellingtonians often love SW flows,it was terrible here today

A mostly sunny day here, high was 24C, the SW breeze was stronger today but mostly fresh here, currently 19C.

I see the maximum temperature at Dunedin Airport today was only 13C.

[NZstorm]

Looks like another coolish day for the South Island before the airmass warms up tomorrow. I see 4C in Invercargill this morning so signs of autumn.

Upper air will be a weakly unstable over the upper half of the NI today but a general SW flow will prevent convergence with possible exception of the BOP where an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out. The numbers for Rotorua 500mb temp -16C, surface dp16C with an afternoon lifted index -2.5.

[NZstorm]

Lifted index chart for the upper North Island today 06Z with 1000mb wind flows.

500mb flow is WNW20kts so any storms that develop will move toward the east.

[tgsnoopy]

I just have this urge to go to Rotorua for a feed of Ribs at the Pig & Whistle this afternoon...

I can't quite work it out....

Yeah right. Go there for a feed, then if it sparks up I'm over there. If not, I won't be disappointed.

Batteries on charge.

[Tornado Tim]

Expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued soon due to the outlook:

A shallow trough lies from from Bay of Plenty to southern Coromandel Peninsula,Taupo and eastern Waikato. The combination of humid air at low levels and cooling aloft means there is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms for these areas during the afternoon and evening, and possibly into the night nearer the coast. These thunderstorms could produce localised heavy rain up to 25mm per hour as well as hail up to 15mm in diameter. However in Bay of Plenty and Taupo where any thunderstorms are likely to be very slow moving, there is a moderate risk that a few could be severe with downpours 25 to 40mm per hour.
There is a lower risk of thunderstorms in the immediate surrounding areas, as
indicated on the chart.

Some heavy showers are forecast about the ranges of western Nelson and northern Buller during the afternoon and there is a low risk of one or two turning thundery.

A trough is expected to move onto eastern parts of the North Island late in the day, bringing more frequent showers to Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay. Some of these showers could be heavy near the coast and there may be a few thunderstorms but they are more likely to be over the sea.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection forecast.

[Tornado Tim]

The odd lightning strike coming from a cell just north east of Rotorua atm

[spwill]

Heavy showers showing up now for parts of the BOP/ central NI.

Partly cloudy 24C here, fresh SW breeze, towering Cu can be seen in the east.

[Michael]

Hasnt been bad as I thought till now,Winds more WSW but Have increased now and SW,Cant wait for the "lift" in the afternoons to start dropping,they start in autumn

[Manukau heads obs]

there is signs of some instability around the Auckland area today even

[bmo]

Currently heavy rain here in Kaukapakapa while on the hills right across from us shines the sun!

[NZstorm]

SW breeze is nice today.

I see Tauranga Airport has a NE10kts so the convergence is there.

Can see a distant cb top to south.

[David]

Just got a txt from grandparents in Taupo, they said very heavy rain there at the moment

[tgsnoopy]

Been a little activity in Rotorua. But frustratingly it's headed East by the looks and isn't really worth chasing. Some reports of flooding though.

[NZstorm]

Looks like a line of heavy showers/weak thunderstorms from Waitomo up into Bay of Plenty. Looks to be SE converging with the SW.

[Tornado Tim]

Owh this is soo cool, looking east you can see all this constant flashing from the top of the cloud top!

[NZstorm]

yes, I noticed the electrical activity picked up in the BOP after sunset. Can't see any lightning from here though.

A rain gauge west of Whakatane recorded 44mm in 1 hour.

[tgsnoopy]

It was a reasonable show. Pity a DSLR camera isn't a higher priority for me. The SX1IS is a dog and hopeless for trying to photograph lightning.

We just finished our Ribs in Vegas as it sparked up, watched it for a while from the other side of the lake. Made our way back to Tauranga just in time to see it spark up over here.