Nth Tasman Low - Mar 21-23

Manukau heads obs · Sat 19/03/2011 16:02

M/S have put out a watch already for heavy rain over the upper NI on monday/Tues

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 19/03/2011 17:20

Manukau heads obs wrote:M/S have put out a watch already for heavy rain over the upper NI on monday/Tues

And I see most of Auckland region is included in the "high confidence" region (along with Northland and Coromandel) on their severe weather outlook

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 20/03/2011 08:52

Thought it this developing low might warrant its own thread.

One thing of concern (as Brian alluded to) is that the highest tides of the year peak around Tuesday. Combined with a possible storm-surge, there could be a risk of some extensive coastal flooding.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 20/03/2011 09:07

Looks like this low should be quite interesting with some moist subtropical air being pulled down onto the North Island. We should see dps of 21/22C in Auckland on Tuesday. Looks like an active warm front will proceed the moist air with a period of heavy rain to much of the NI Monday into Tuesday. The warm front crosses Auckland later Monday by the looks. Maybe an elevated thunderstorm risk on the warm front.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 20/03/2011 09:09

had not really thought about that
if the barometer gets down to 1000 hpa or so , that will be adding 10cm to the tide height
add that to a King tide and onshore winds in the hauraki gulf, and the NW motorway could be in trouble again alright

you can see the high cloud of that developing warm front NZStorm starting to move further south now

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 20/03/2011 11:58

I see the Metservice warning for Northland mentions rainfall rates could briefly reach 25 to 50mm per hour in the east for a time Monday evening yet there is nothing in their thunderstorm outlook.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 20/03/2011 17:23

This coming event, followed by (possibly) more rain late this week, might be enough to push my monthly total over 200 mm again (73mm more needed)

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 20/03/2011 17:46

The Davis Station is picking up the rain event coming

Lots of thickening High cloud this arvo from the North, a very good sign of the incoming weather event as well.
My forecasting Program WXSIM is picking 50-60mm+ Monday Night/Early Tuesday Morning.

High of 25Â°C today with a Light breeze from the NE.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 20/03/2011 18:00

From a 00Zgfs/Auckland perspective this event has weakened with the strongest warm advection/heaviest rain further east now. Looks like it passes just east of Northland and drops down onto BOP/East Cape.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 20/03/2011 20:18

The MS 3 day rain model sure looks impressive http://www.metservice.com/national/maps ... cast-3-day
Looks like BOP sure is gonna get a soaking

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 21/03/2011 07:00

The latest gfs rainfall accumulation chart between now and midday tomorrow. Looks like an east west thing with the rain.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 21/03/2011 08:15

Dont particuarly want too much at the time,theres a leak somewhere in the roof and need to clear the needles 1st thats whats caused it,so it can dry a little before putting silicon on

Manukau heads obs · Mon 21/03/2011 09:26

M/S have now lifted heavy rain warning for Auckland, citing its taking a more SE track
as NZStorm alluded to in the GFS models....

Manukau heads obs · Mon 21/03/2011 14:39

a bit slow to get going at the moment this whole thing
but the barometer is dropping here now and the wind is increasing
and there is a solid rain band drapped across northland that is moving slowly south...

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 21/03/2011 15:41

Yeah, I see KerikeriWeather has had about 27mm in the last 6 hrs or so.

A very light 3mm here since last night, which has eased off for now. Gales winds out in the Gulf atm.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 21/03/2011 16:46

[quote="Nev"]Heck theres not even any breeze here

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 21/03/2011 17:16

Hmmm, I knew the significant falls would avoid Auckland but am really surprised it's been a dry day (technically that's wrong, but not enough to be recorded since about 8.10am). Fairly comfortable temperature-wise though

And starting to look very Autumn-like along Symonds street, the oaks are dropping leaves and the wind was swirling them around everywhere...

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 21/03/2011 20:21

Did anyone notice the 00Z GFS has large rain total again for Auckland? (ie close to 100mm)
how odd...

bmo · Unread post by **bmo** » Mon 21/03/2011 21:01

Auckland under rain warning. Again!
http://www.metservice.com/national/warn ... r-warnings

AREA/S AFFECTED
Auckland
FORECAST
Rain is expected to become heavy overnight. In the 7 hours from 8pm to 3am 60 to 100mm of rain is possible. Hourly rainfall rates could reach 30-40mm.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 21/03/2011 21:39

interesting
sure can see the rain bands moving into the auckland area
and I guess they are going to be slow moving, as it looks like the auckland area is like the twisting point/focal point of the lee trough boundary?

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 21/03/2011 22:15

Getting a little heavier here finally (8mm/hr last few mins)
60-100mm seems a bit high considering the warning only runs to 3am...

bmo · Unread post by **bmo** » Mon 21/03/2011 23:03

Some pretty heavy rain and strong winds here! 11.7mm so far!

Rain is even heavier now for the last 15 minutes. Now on 17mm.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 21/03/2011 23:46

Mangawhai Heads showing 60.8mm.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 22/03/2011 06:52

a nice to have 17mm here
1004 hpa baro and wind more onshore here, will make for a big tide on this side early this arvo

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 22/03/2011 07:01

Yes, some rain overnight in Auckland to keep the garden watered.

I see The Pinnacles recorded 270mm!

Looks like we get a warm front later on Friday. GFS cranks the moist advection/rain up again for next weekend.

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