Subtropical Low - May 1-4

[David]

Metservice now have high confidence of warning amounts of rain for some areas of upper NI 1-3 May.
Severe weather outlook map:

[Manukau heads obs]

you wouldnt think it was all going to turn to custard going by the how nice a day its been today
but boy things are sure taking shape in the coral sea today for this system
and being tropical origin has big potential

[David]

GFS has pretty low rainfall numbers at this stage. Wonder if that will change next day or two.


By the way - my weather site is down until further notice. I'm going to have to switch hosts again unfortunately

[Nev]

Thought this event might warrant its own thread.

[Manukau heads obs]

all looks to be going to plan....
have the 9 year olds birthday party tomorrow....hoping rain will not arrive until after 3pm
whats the chances?

[David]

all looks to be going to plan....
have the 9 year olds birthday party tomorrow....hoping rain will not arrive until after 3pm
whats the chances?

If metservice 3 day model is right, you could be in luck, although they did say there could be a shower about before the main rain band.

I see they have a high confidence of warning amounts of rain down this way but have only issued a warning for Northland at this stage.


ps, I'm hoping Howick weather will be back online before the rain event begins, but depends on how long it takes for my new domain name (currently parked) to direct visitors to my actual site. edit: the new site is now online but I need to set it all up, a task for tomorrow morning, too tired

[bmo]

Looks like the first rainbands are in Northland right now.
http://www.metservice.com/IcePics/ob/7d ... LANDL0.png

[Manukau heads obs]

rain band is only slowly making its way south over northland
there are some scuddy showers ahead of it, but we are relatively sheltered from this here in an easterly
so I think we will just make it for the birthday party (as I hoped)
whew

sure was all show that first high cloud sheet
(its a very lent over warm front by the looks)
(most active rain bands are to the NW of northland (and are lightning active), I see)

[Michael]

Though we had heaps of crap winds this autumn its been quite a mild one as to date here,plenty of our neighbours leaves again after the last lot all last week,waiting for a good NWer again or at least a proper NE.

[NZstorm]

Looks like a milder humid spell coming in with the rain, dps 18C from tomorrow through to early Thursday when we get a cold front. Should see isolated thunderstorms developing on the front coming south tomorrow and later tomorrow into early Tuesday should be a higher risk of thunder over Coromandal/BOP.

[Manukau heads obs]

certainly a jump in temperature when the wind got up suddenly this morning, whole new airmass suddenly arrived

ps, dont know about anyone else, but I really enjoyed watching the royal wedding,what a lovely couple, and, I thought they had predicted rain, good thing that did not pan out

[spwill]

certainly a jump in temperature when the wind got up suddenly this morning, whole new airmass suddenly arrived

We had that jump in temperature without a jump in dewpoint temperature, often the temperture rise comes with the arrival of a more humid air mass.

[Nev]

45 kt strong E'ly gales out in the Gulf this morn and 31 kt near-gale winds in the Waitemata. Quite a contrast to yesterday!

[Michael]

Definitely easterlies here though the wind drops away almost completely at times.

[Michael]

Hope the wind blows some limbs down off these trees,no body else will do it.

[Manukau heads obs]

whew
made it through the outdoor birthday party
with just some spitty rain a couple of times

[David]

Rain still hasn't arrived here, easterly has been gusty all day - max gusts 53kph here.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This event is too far west with the bulk of the rain. I think BOP may be the area with greatest rainfall though from the other 'beafy' part of the low. The following subtropical low (in 5 days time) is way further east of NI. Hawkes Bay etc dodges a bullet.

[bmo]

It's been raining here off/on for the past few hours.
3.3mm so far
strongest gust today was 51.5kph at 13:23pm
winds now are gusting at 33kph

[NZstorm]

This systen over us has a little bit of upper level support over the next 24hrs with a 100kt jet streak at 250mb moving down from the north.

[Nev]

Only 8.5mm here so far (last 12 hours) - 43mm at the Pinnacles on the Coromandel. Some heavy but seemingly isolated falls in the Far North since early yesterday, i.e 160mm at Puhipuhi and 128mm at Kaeo. Winds on the Waitemata remain quite strong after tipping gale-force yesterday arvo, while winds in Gulf have eased from at least 47 kts last night to gale-force this morn.

[Brassnz]

Only 10mm in Laingholm in last 24 hrs, and no significant wind here we are (sheltered I guess, for now at least).

[NZstorm]

Heads up for tomorrow, we may see a few thunderstorms occur over the Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty region. GFS indicates instability values of 800j/kg with low level convergence occurring NE vs NW in association with a weak front I think coming in from the west. The is no upper flow though with the 500mb wind a gutless 25kts.

[Manukau heads obs]

sure is alot of angular momentum in the system at the moment
just now need some convergence to start to occur, as you say
the CB' to the NW of northland are lightning active at the moment

[Michael]

Supposed to be a NE forecast,when are they arriving?