2011 Ski Season

[spwill]

I see there is very little snow on our ski fields at the moment. Coronet Peak has 1cm and plans to open on June 4th.

Can next weeks trough/Tasman low give them a decent fall ?

[snowstormwatcher]

Hardly any snow on Dobson or Fox peak at the moment just a few patches above 1800m. That can change very quickly though this time last year there wasnt much snow on the mountains either but the system late may brought over 1.2 metres to Dobson and set them up for the season.

[03Stormchaser]

Hutt meant to open June 11th, stuff all up there.

[spwill]

I see Perisher ski field across the ditch opened this weekend.

NZ fields will get atleast a dusting of snow later in the week with the arrival of a cold trough and better conditions for snow making.

[tich]

Patchy snow on mts above Hanmer, probably above about 1500m. Hard to believe that there was snow lying on the township just over a month ago, considering how mild it was there last weekend.

[Twizel Dave]

Hello all! There is very little snow around the Alps now, possibly the least I have ever seen for this time of year. And the temperatures are so mild. All the high country has experienced was a brief cool snap a few weeks ago and then it's been warm ever since. None of the local ski field workers have even bothered to go near the slopes so far. Perhaps there is something to this global warming lark?

[spwill]

Web cam shows Coronet Peak has as much snow as Mt Eden at the moment.
Can't see the big snow dump coming yet but it will be colder from the weekend into next week with probably one or two light snow falls in a W/SW flow. The current ECMWF model run looks better for some snow tuesday.

[mattyj46]

Not really ski season related but I'm heading upto Naseby next Friday to learn the luge over the weekend, will be interested to see how the track holds up, also to see if there is any snow up around that area.

[RWood]

Hello all! There is very little snow around the Alps now, possibly the least I have ever seen for this time of year. And the temperatures are so mild. All the high country has experienced was a brief cool snap a few weeks ago and then it's been warm ever since. None of the local ski field workers have even bothered to go near the slopes so far. Perhaps there is something to this global warming lark?

A warning to those who "predict" cold winters after the first cool snap - I think you were among them back in April.

[Manukau heads obs]

with La nina fading (although not much sign of that yet in this part of the south pacific (i,e another low from the north for next weekend)), looks like a neutral start to winter
maybe a weak el nina for the spring, which would favour normal snow falls
will be late start to the ski season in any case as there is very little snow base at the moment I would say

[spwill]

Web cam shows Coronet Peak and Mt Hutt have no snow on the lower slopes. Coronet Peak will get a light dusting of snow overnight. I guess with the colder air tomorrow they will start making snow.

[southernthrash]

Coronet is making snow now, at a rate of 24 t/minute. It's a pretty normal start to the season. Snow has been accumulating above ~2000 m in the central southern alps for a while now.

New Zealand ski seasons tend to start "suddenly". It's actually best for the snowpack to have a decent period of clear cold weather, followed by initial heavy snowfalls to establish the base. Poor seasons often correspond, at least in part, to frequent small snow falls accumulating on relatively warm ground. Due to the insulating effects of snow you end up with a situation where the snow is continually melting at ground surface.

I haven't really been following things closely enough lately to make any kind of seasonal prediction, but that is largely folly anyway, especially where snow is concerned.

[spwill]

This satellite archive is good for comparing snow cover over the Southern Alps for previous years
http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz/noaa/
I believe this May is on track to be the warmest on record or close to it.

Web cams show a light dusting for Coronet Peak overnight and the snow cannons at work. Snow making should allow them to open some runs next weekend.

[Twizel Dave]

Hello all! There is very little snow around the Alps now, possibly the least I have ever seen for this time of year. And the temperatures are so mild. All the high country has experienced was a brief cool snap a few weeks ago and then it's been warm ever since. None of the local ski field workers have even bothered to go near the slopes so far. Perhaps there is something to this global warming lark?

A warning to those who "predict" cold winters after the first cool snap - I think you were among them back in April.

Hello. Yes you are quite right.

[Twizel Dave]

Hello all. It is quite true that there is so little snow on the Alps at the moment and the mountains are strangely bare for May! My wife tells me that our ski field worker neighbours are packing to go up north to work in the hope there will be a winter at Ruapehu etc. In my lifetime there has always been a goodly covering of snow on the Alps by May and we get some of our heaviest falls by the end of May and the beginning weeks of June. Yet here we are on the 28th of May and it looks like late March as far as snow cover and temperature goes! From what I gather there is little prospect of significant wintry weather in the next few weeks so perhaps Mr Wood I shall about face and guess this year we are likely to get a winter without real snow or cold?

[Manukau heads obs]

just because its warm now though does not mean the whole of the winter is going to stay warm
should actually be around normal (slightly above since sea temperatures are still a bit above normal) given returning to neutral conditions for la nina/el nino

[spwill]

The weather could turn cold any time and during winter snowfall at higher levels is more about precipitation levels than temperature levels. Certainly the May pattern has been very poor for producing snow.

[southernthrash]

Actually, the climbers might beg to differ. Early season conditions have not been too bad with plenty of snow and lots of ice forming (earlier than usual in some places). If you look at the alps from the plains/basins you are still only seeing a small sample of what's there.

The NOAA AVHRR archive is cool, but remember that it is a very coarse resolution (1km) sensor, and fraught with technical issues. The landsat archive is online and free. MODIS imagery can be found too.

[Manukau heads obs]

ice would point to melting then refreezing (because of the warm northerlies), yes?

[spwill]

If you look at the alps from the plains/basins you are still only seeing a small sample of what's there.
.

But you get an excellent view of the ski fields . The east side on view is the shade side so you tend to see the best of any snow cover.

[Twizel Dave]

Yes good points. There was that brief cold spell which probably contributed to the ice but very little snow fell anywhere. Definitely there is a good view of the ski fields from the eastern sides and certainly there is less snow about up there than I can ever remember seeing. How much can there be on the western side which gets the sun shine and warm winds? Those ski fields must be months away from being able to open. Certainly so would be the Round Hill field by Lake Tekapo. But The Dobson and the Ohau have next to no snow at all by the look of things and they aren't even thinking of getting going, according to the people who work on those fields. My word what unusual weather!

[southernthrash]

ice would point to melting then refreezing (because of the warm northerlies), yes?

Some, but most of the water ice that the climbers love comes either from freezing waterfalls (still early for that) or form the frozen run off from high altitude glaciers/snowfields (which almost always have liquid water at the base, even in winter).

[southernthrash]

If you look at the alps from the plains/basins you are still only seeing a small sample of what's there.
.

But you get an excellent view of the ski fields . The east side on view is the shade side so you tend to see the best of any snow cover.

The skifields aren't really that representative of what's going on along the main divide/in the central alps. Most of the ski areas are much lower than main divide peaks, and in the rain shadow, so the conditions between the two tend to be very different. The years of really good snow for the skifields are sometimes not so great for the high mountains and glaciers.

[Twizel Dave]

Hello southernthrash. Anyone living within cooee of the Alps will tell you there is very little snow to be seen. And if you fly over them you will also see that there is very little snow on the mountains for this time of year. It is really rather extraordinary. In fact I have seen more snow on the Alps after an unseasonable late spring or early autumn dumping than there is now when we're almost into the best part of winter. For the sake of the ski fields we will need to see some very large amounts of snow falling soon if they are to survive. One thing I wonder about is the ground temperature because it is still rather warm compared with this time of year previously. Will any snow that falls linger for very long? That again would be reliant upon a very large dumping which is not something we usually see. Normally the snow accumulates through many small dumpings over the autumn and winter, but there have been none of those yet and we're almost into June! None of this bodes terribly well for a particularly worthwhile ski season, although every one else not involved with skiing doesn't appear to be unhappy about the situation!
All the best
Dave

[Manukau heads obs]

note that august is usually the snowiest month, so plenty of time yet