Unsettled - July 21-24

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Tornado Tim
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Unsettled - July 21-24

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Once this high that we have right now moves on we have 2 new lows that are set to pay a visit to NZ later on this week, bringing on some unsettled conditions across the country with potential thunderstorm development in the northern half of the North Island.
GFS models have been picking a low developing just off Queensland and deepening to around 995hPa in the Tasman sea and deepening further to 990hpa when it comes across the country (not that deep but its rather large).

It is expected that a steady relatively warm NE flow will develop over most of NI by the 21st of July, and temps are expected to reach the mid to late teens around this time.

I wouldn't rule out the chance of a thunderstorm as the trough of low pressure comes closer to NZ later on this week.

The most significant rain from this potential event coming up is expected to be around the usual places, Taranaki, Gisbourne, BOP etc....
The 2nd low is expected to have very cold upper air temps but is too far ahead in time to pick anything yet but we should keep an eye out on it and if it comes to anything use this thread :)
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Last edited by Tornado Tim on Tue 19/07/2011 12:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unsettled mid-late July

Unread post by jamie »

nice reporting Tim _b .

Thanks.
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Re: Unsettled mid-late July

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looking boring down here as another intense anticyclone deveops in the Sth Tasman Sea and becomes stationary :x

but,

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Re: Unsettled mid-late July

Unread post by NZstorm »

john wrote
but,
Models are hinting at snow for Canterbury about Monday, moving north onto the North Island about Tuesday.
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Re: Unsettled mid-late July

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

...being cautious there, Steven [-X :smile:

some cold weather does seem likely. have to wait to see how severe. <3

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Re: Unsettled mid-late July

Unread post by NZstorm »

I wouldn't rule out the chance of a thunderstorm as the trough of low pressure comes closer to NZ later on this week.
Looks to be a chance of elevated thunderstorms with tomorrows front over Northland.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Looks like this subtropical low isnt amounting to much up north there. Radar not impressive at all.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by spwill »

I see some Cb development top of Northland on sat pic, see how that develops. 16C at Kaitaia.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Nev »

MS still going with just a low risk of T-storms in the E'n Far N.

Around 12-13C overnight and this morn here, with 3mm of light to moderate rain so far this morn.
Not really too windy here yet, but gales further out in the Gulf already.


P.S. Thought I'd better give this thread a time-span (can always be changed). :smile:
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by bmo »

Just got hit wih very heavy rain. up to 11mm now from 3mm 30 minutes before
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by David »

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Looks like this subtropical low isnt amounting to much up north there. Radar not impressive at all.
Yep pretty much nothing here so far...2mm rain total and the highest rain rate today 1 mm/hr. Surprised at lack of wind given the tightness of the isobars
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by bmo »

Have 13mm so far today seems like most rain has drifted down he west?
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Nev »

Yeah, not really windy here at all. Still fairly sheltered by the Coromandel I guess. Dry for the last few hours of the morn, but just very light rain since - total of 7mm so far. High of 14.2C at 1:40pm.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by spwill »

Quite a big temperature spread north to south this evening, Whangarei on 15C, Oamaru Airport -3C.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by NZstorm »

Subtropical over Northland tonight with dp 14C at Whangarei and kerikeri.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by jamie »

Freezing wind here in palmerston north. Been blowing it's tits off too. Going to be in the hills of taihape this weekend so hoping for some snow flurries on Sunday before the drive home Sunday night
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Nev »

Reports of strong SE winds blowing 2 truck and trailer units over near Opiki (S of Palmerston North) earlier this morn and downed power lines in Kapiti.

Dry here today, cloud breaking up, relatively moderate SE'er, 14C atm.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

GFS is picking a huge cold pool crossing the Country around the 26th
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Isolated Thunder for southern parts of Northland last hr, the showery weather moving into North Auckland now.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by bmo »

Seems like the last few days West Auckland has had more rain than east.
Yesterday:13mm
Today:8mm
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by iomkiwi »

A few rumbles to the north of me at present (a lot closer than my boltek is showing) and some heavy rain (190mm/hr)
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, I am picking up strikes from the Hokianga area
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by iomkiwi »

all around now, really deep rumbling shaking the house (like the sub turned up way too loud on a stereo)
Boltek going crazy with noise (not strikes)
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by Nev »

Onshore tornado confirmed in Waipu at about 4:30pm this arvo going by updating reports...

'Tornado leaves 'trail of destruction' in Northland' - TVNZ
'Tornado leaves 'trail of destruction'' - Stuff
'Wretched weekend of weather' - NZ Herald

Below is the radar image from 30 minutes before the event ... '+' marks Waipu.
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Re: Unsettled - July 21-25

Unread post by bmo »

Some decent rain falling here right now for the last 20 minutes and increasing in intensity. Some really big rain drops!
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