Polar Blast 23-26th July

[gllitz]

GFS putting up some pretty nice looking numbers for low level (sea level, dare I say it?) snow/frozen precip. for Canty and surrounds this coming SUN/MONDAY. Will keep an eye on this one for sure.....(another thread, perhaps?)

[Richard]

Interesting predictions there gllitz,was wondering if we were going to made it through without seeing any of the white stuff.

Orion - its seems normal to get some plums trees to flower this time of year regardless of the weather,then again i saw a wattle in full flower yesterday which seems a bit early.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Great day again today. Hopefully some more precipitation on the cards in the next few GFS runs with the prospect of the low level snow. Seems touch and go at present.

[03Stormchaser]

Sunday night / Monday morning for CHCH brings snow potential.

[Lawrence]

Sunday night / Monday morning for CHCH brings snow potential.

Yeah! Looking possible if that low develops of to the SE.Only numbers against low level is the pressure,what you think?

[Storm Struck]

Good example of a snowstorm whiteout there Karsh , all i can see is a white box.
Yes its certainly a system to watch for, Perhaps more inland/Foothills for snow Saturday and into Sunday then with the colder trough moving in later on Sunday presenting a risk elsewhere.

[Dean.]

All the models in agreement too.
Looking great for Sunday night.

[Lawrence]

Good example of a snowstorm whiteout there Karsh , all i can see is a white box.
Yes its certainly a system to watch for, Perhaps more inland/Foothills for snow Saturday and into Sunday then with the colder trough moving in later on Sunday presenting a risk elsewhere.

Sorry

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Precipitation to me is still a problem. Very little expected. Might see the odd isolated light snow shower about but nothing significant. If only the models cranked it up!

[JETNZ]

Sunday promises to be the most interesting in terms of where possible snow may fall. I'm travelling from Mt Cook Village to North Canterbury on this day and the Met Service forecast is somewhat conflicting; "Mainly fine about the Southern Alps. Snow likely to low levels about the Fiordland and Otago mountains, and about eastern parts of the Canterbury high country." Presumably the High Country is north of Tekapo so does this mean it would be relatively safe to head over Burkes Pass on Sunday or better to head out via Waitaki Valley. The last thing we want is to be snowed in

[NZstorm]

Sunday promises to be the most interesting in terms of where possible snow may fall. I'm travelling from Mt Cook Village to North Canterbury on this day and the Met Service forecast is somewhat conflicting; "Mainly fine about the Southern Alps. Snow likely to low levels about the Fiordland and Otago mountains, and about eastern parts of the Canterbury high country." Presumably the High Country is north of Tekapo so does this mean it would be relatively safe to head over Burkes Pass on Sunday or better to head out via Waitaki Valley. The last thing we want is to be snowed in

Going by latest GFS snow will be moving in Sunday pm so I would plan to be off the roads in Canterbury Sunday afternoon/evening. But check with the gfs for timing tomorrow.

[JETNZ]

Thanks Steven, will leave first light on Sunday to avoid being caught in the 'zone'. What's your preferred website for GFS updates? I'll have my 3G iPad so will be able to check updates.

[trickytiger]

I use metvuw and www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php for gfs updates, the other guys on here might be able to give you some other ones that may be easier to read.

Check this forum also for updates.

[spwill]

. The last thing we want is to be snowed in

Carry snow chains and you will be okay.

[JETNZ]

Already packed Thanks for the link...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice severe weather outlook going with Moderate Confidence for Heavy snow for Canterbury, Malborough and Nelson regions. (Saturday to Monday)

[Michael]

Advection looks as if it maybe earlier than sunday on the eastcoast by the setup.

[mikestormchaser]

Interesting to see snow forecarst for sunday/monday certainly sounds to be the cold one for the winter. i dont think precip isan issue really on this one for qauntity of snow, i wouldnt expect a huge amount on the ground anyway for christchurch but up on the hills and higher parts of the canterbury plains absolutly!!

[Storm Struck]

Thats right precipitation wont be a problem as its going to be an onshore flow from the S-SE, any model outputs dont pick this feature up well so potentially some areas could be looking at say 20-25mm while others perhaps close to the city with any sheltering affects 10-15mm thats just for overnight sunday anyway.
Thats not bad considering the typical S-SW flow weve had snow showers in before and theres only been 3-5mm outputs.
Inland will get the majority of the snow, but the east coast should get a small smattering too hopefully not too much for those with tarps on thier roofs in town.

[Richard]

Advection looks as if it maybe earlier than sunday on the eastcoast by the setup.

Yes i think you are right Michael,but the snow levels will start off high and slowly lower over Sat-Sun.

[tich]

I won't be there to see it, but will be travelling (by bus) from Rotorua to Wellington on Monday 25th, which could be interesting.(could be detouring around Ruapehu instead of Desert Rd) I hope Cook Strait isn't too wild when I cross over the next day.

[Lawrence]

Moisture levels have backed off a little but still looking good for now.

[03Stormchaser]

they have dropped abit, but in these setups the models tend to be light. All other indicators look good still.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Precipitation has dropped even more overnight. This potential system hasnt excited me yet. The flow is more SW now than SE unfortunately. Fingers crossed it changed back at the next run due in an hour. This one to me will be the telling one!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice Forecast just through for Sunday and Monday:


"Sunday 24
Snow lowering to sea level. Cold southwesterlies freshening.

Issued: 10:33am 22 Jul
Monday 25
Snow showers clearing. Cold southwesterlies dying out"