Thunderstorms for Canterbury Spring/Summer 2011/2012

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

With the SOI where it is at the moment and judging by weather patterns, their movements, it's looks like a good potential for frontal thunderstorms this coming spring and summer for eastern regions of the South Island, and possibly the North Island.
We had a very thunderous season last spring/summer/autunm come winter but 100% of those 'thunderstorms' were underground and nothing above.
Lets hope we can get some decent ones this thundersorm season, in the atmosphere, this time

[NZstorm]

Hopefully La Nina does not return as that was the problem last summer. It prevented polar troughs from making it to NZ.

[Richard]

well here's hoping hey,after all the last time i heard thunder here was back in Jan when there was some Intracloud lightning from a Northwester

[Michael]

Prefer la nina even means more rain than awful el nino with the wind.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Still looking ontrack, especially, now with another cold southerly outbreak coming this WE and the movement towards Spring/Summer showing possibly similar weather patterns as what we are getting at the moment.
The large systems in the eastern Indian Ocean looks likely to track east as well in the Spring months
This with a rather neutral La Nina/El Nino make this possibily quite feasable, aiding the crucial SWflows to develop in the Sth Tasman Sea.
Locally, I can see many NE developing against this.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Still looking ontrack for this late spring and into the summer
...besides here, other parts of the country look promising as well, this depending on timing and situation

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Now, sadly after confirmation of NIWAR's out-look for the coming spring and summer, it looks now unlikely that all my predictions for thunderstorms for Canterbury this Spring and Summer will NOT now eventuate.
Any high hopes for storm-chasing here is now looking very unlikely.
Anyway , enjoy the summer if you can

[Richard]

Now, sadly after confirmation of NIWAR's out-look for the coming spring and summer, it looks now unlikely that all my predictions for thunderstorms for Canterbury this Spring and Summer will NOT now eventuate.
Any high hopes for storm-chasing here is now looking very unlikely.
Anyway , enjoy the summer if you can

JohnGaul
NZThS

Oh no gees if these poor seasons keep up John,you may stop trimming your pine hedge if nothings happening in tc

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Oh no gees if these poor seasons keep up John,you may stop trimming your pine hedge if nothings happening in tc

Just had the shelter belt trimmed, but I will reiterate, the thunderstorm potential for Canterbury dosen't look very healthy at all
I could always take up golf or collecting beer mats or peeling onions for a hobby?
]

[Richard]

Just had the shelter belt trimmed, but I will reiterate, the thunderstorm potential for Canterbury dosen't look very healthy at all
I could always take up golf or collecting beer mats or peeling onions for a hobby?
JohnGaul
NZThS

Yes it doesn't look good for the plains does it,i can only hope weather patterns will allow for more storms like that of what we experienced here over the week or so.

A word of advice John,less tears if done under running water.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A word of advice John,less tears if done under running water.

Thanks for that advice.
I think now that seismic waves from earthquakes, hinder thunderstorms as they go up from the ground through the air.
As a lot of them have been happening over the past 13 months any potential for thunderstorms around the earthquake area have been thwarted, except during the snow period in July/August when there were a couple of 'Snow-claps'

[Tornado Tim]

As Nzstorm said, La Nina is responsible for the lack of storms, if it trends that way which it currently is doing our season is going to be quite pathetic around the country.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Ah well Here's to the Nor-westers tomorrow

[Lukemyster]

Ah well Here's to the Nor-westers tomorrow

JohnGaul
NZThS

sand storm

[Richard]

Ah well Here's to the Nor-westers tomorrow

JohnGaul
NZThS

No no here's to the Nor-westerly,i did a heap of hoeing yesterday and i need the weeds to dry out.

No sign of the wind yet as there's a real pea souper here this morning

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, well. it was 'non-burger' for today.

[Storm Struck]

If the general trend keeps following the way it is with a westerly pattern, and the highs are not too stubborn to swing the flows more S-SW after westerly phases then we could get a better season like in the 1999-2004 xmas to new year period.
Ill be crossing anything i can though and hoping your hedge plays us some magic this season John.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

As thunderstorms looking very unlikely thanks to the resergence in the La Nino instead of being a quiet period
before the next El Nina, I will sadly, close down this thread.

[Tornado Tim]

As thunderstorms looking very unlikely thanks to the resergence in the La Nino instead of being a quiet period
before the next El Nina, I will sadly, close down this thread.

Its El Niño and La Niña....... your getting the El and the La mixed.

[melja]

I think hes being funny tim.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think hes being funny tim.

I am coz I'm not a moderator any more

[Richard]

I think hes being funny tim.

I am coz I'm not a moderator any more

Oh 0k,does mean you going to be even more of a larakin now John

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not really.
I was correct with my prediction for lackage of thunderstorms for Canterbury for the tail end of the year 2011, over the summer period. Nothing here at all. It's shame La Nina came back and deluged places like Nelson.
2012 summer may be the same but later on in the year for next summer, things may be more friutful, depending if this ruddy La Nina system goes away. Too strong at the moment for thunder/lightning related activity over Canterbury which is good in some ways as ongoing earthquakes here are still upsetting people and they don't want unnecessary thunderstorms to upset them further.

[mikestormchaser]

Speaking of Canterbury thunderstorms.. decided to go out for a chase yesterday with steve ( 03 stormchaser) Aaron wilkinson and jasetrm in springs junction/ murchison area, unfortunately nothing eventuated from it but was worth it to atleast get out and give it ago!
Here are some photos from what became more of a nice road trip then anything els but was a great day none the less!

[Thunder]

Well, there were storms a little to the east but due to the roading network couldn't really get to them. I wouldn't mind going up there again if the situation looked perhaps a little bit more convincing but you know it didn't look to bad. I actually had a pretty good day and enjoyed the day trip, visited a few places I hadn't been to before. Mind you if we had've hung around that valley / road that goes between Springs Junction and Murchison for another hour it looks like some downpours did develop over that area, whether there was lightning I'm not sure. At the time we thought maybe it might die away when we left but that wasn't so. I'll put a few pictures up a little later after some tea! Thanks mikey, good stuff.