Widespread Snow Event 14th-17th Aug

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Widespread Snow Event 14th-17th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Thought would start a new topic as models seem to be coming into agreement about the prospect of low level snow Sunday night through to Tuesday. Still a few days off but GFS putting out some interesting numbers. Blue skies this morning in their forecast have downgraded the amount of precipitation somewhat but are still going for good amounts of snow.
Here is Blue skies Canterbury Plains forecast for Monday put out this morning.
"Periods of snow may be heavy on Monday with strong to near gale force bitterly cold southerlies. 10-20cm likely."

UPDATED: 11am GFS showing slight backing down in precipitation but thickness still around 514 at the moment.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Storm Struck »

At the moment i dont think Precipitation will be an issue, Its a very simular set up last months same flow etc but lasts out until midday tuesday atleast before it backs off out into the pacific.
Been in the models a few days now and shaping up slightly better each day, wouldnt mind a second hit makes up for the lack of storms here the last few years.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Dean. »

Hopefully more widespread than the last one,the force field that seems to be over us this year will probably steer it up the coast again!
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

most recent model run of GFS, anyway, has backed right off....still too early to call, though...
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

gllitz wrote:most recent model run of GFS, anyway, has backed right off....still too early to call, though...
Indeed, plotting it as a non event again, infact almost dry. Those type of values wouldn't get it below 400m/500m. Hopefully it swings back next run. It was the run at this time yesterday that threw it out the door too.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I hadnt looked at any previous models before this evening, nothing showing of huge interest there atm. But as its still early will be checking this daily as you can tell it may swing either way, 50/50 atm
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

03Stormchaser wrote:I hadnt looked at any previous models before this evening, nothing showing of huge interest there atm. But as its still early will be checking this daily as you can tell it may swing either way, 50/50 atm
Having said what I said before, though for the GFS runs (2 in a row now showing nothing really), the ECMWF run at 00Z today shows the southerly blast quite clearly, whereas only a day or so ago it showed nothing....so as you say, probably 50/50...better views in the morning and later in the week... :wave:
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

3 in a row now with nothing at all on GFS. That cant be good. Infact shows the high over us instead. Ill give it one more run otherwise goodnight nurse!
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Michael »

Metservices morning model run looks better up here anyway,winds more S or SE ,hopefully it remains that way.We had our share of cloud now.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

Hmmm...12Z GFS = nothing, 12Z ECMWF = still there.....who knows......
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by spwill »

There is model agreement on a cold southerly but just how cold and wet will it be ? I generally go with the ECMWF.
Need to wait another day or two.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

Forget about this thread I reckon, its a non starter
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Razor wrote:Forget about this thread I reckon, its a non starter
Metservice forecasts as below:

Sunday: Showers, with snow lowering to sea level. Cold southwesterlies strengthening
Monday: Snow showers with strong cold southwesterlies

However, GFS does not support this at all and Blue skies have backed off big time on it also.

Although this in the press: http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/5 ... he-horizon
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

Latest metserivce for ChCh is fine weather sunday
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Not anymore....It probably should be though..
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

For anyone interested, have a look-see here:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

navigate your way to good ole NZ and get rid of ticks on the right side (like NEXRAD radar, weather stations, etc).
Zoom to the level you want to be at (I usually zoom out to where I can see AUS/NZ/and most of Southern Ocean - by using the zoom bar on the left side of page...then, go tick on the Model Data option - feel free to choose GFS/ECMWF/etc...as your choice, and then which Map Type you might be interested in (MSL/850/700/500, etc)...and feel fee to loop through the data using the slider...have a good play around, it is a lot of fun! :-)

Eventually you will notice a HUGE difference between what the GFS says and what the ECMWF says...and I mean BIG difference, especially come SUN/MON/TUE - and not just for CHCH/CANTY, but for the WHOLE of NZ...either it will be a pretty descent polar outbreak (as of the 12Z model runs for ECMWF) or nothing special...but again, all subject to future model runs...(the ECMWF has been very consistent with this, btw.....just my $0.02)

I'd be interested to know how the various weather-guessers around NZ find a balance/preference with all the models, as I know the MS use a different model as well...(and sorry to re-hash this discussion, seems to come up every now and then!) :-)
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by spwill »

Yesterday GFS had bitterly cold air moving over NZ at the weekend, that cold air is still in the model but further east.

I think the ECMWF is a more consistent model but I like to see agreement between GFS and ECMWF for a more confident forecast, the two models should come closer together next few runs.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by mattyj46 »

In MS Severe Weather Outlook

On Sunday, a cold front should sweep northwards over New Zealand, followed by very cold showery southerlies. This very cold southerly airstream is likely to persist through Monday. Snow is expected to fall to very low levels in the east and south of both islands, also the central North Island high country, as indicated on the chart. There is a moderate risk that snowfall amounts will be sufficent to warrant a warning in most of these areas. However, in Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and the Tararua District, the flow may be a bit too southwesterly for large amounts of snow. The risk of heavy snow is assessed as only low at this stage for these areas, although there may be some more on Tuesday.

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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Orion »

Local farming wisdom has it that August 15th is the last date for potential heavy snow around this area - 1992 being an anomaly.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Metservice news release earlier this afternoon.

http://www.metservice.com/about/news

Updated: GFS just through shows the blast clipping coastal Canterbury but thickness values are around 528 now....
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CWUweather »

when you say canterbury do you mean chch??
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Orion »

Welcome joliver657 :wave:
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I am going to wait out until the last run on friday, the last cold blast late July was up and down like this possibly not as much but 2 days out it showed things increased well.
You cant trust models this far out we live in hope ;P

I dont like the met services christchurch 10 day outlook i find it lazy work, sometimes you can look at it 5 days out and it says ( rain light winds ) yet the regional forecast has gales in it.
So dont read the christchurch forecast, same thing regional outlook says snow only showers on the christchurch outlook.
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Last edited by Storm Struck on Wed 10/08/2011 18:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by Richard »

The MS may have issued a heavy snow warning but there 7 Day Rain Forecast charts at this stage shows a non event.
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Re: Potential Snow Event South and East of SI 14th-16th Aug

Unread post by CWUweather »

maybe that means not much rain and lots of snow
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