NZ Weather Forum

Thought this was worth a post as there have been signs for a couple of days now. This GFS run being the strongest for around 2nd and 3rd September. Looks to be a cold blast to start off the month with snow to low levels. Latest run would suggest sea level with 500 thickness at 514ish.

oh no ,if only it brings some thunder and lightning with it,that wont be so bad.

Yes I notice that Blue Skies has now got snow down to low levels on Fri and Sat!

Richard wrote: oh no ,if only it brings some thunder and lightning with it,.

Might be appropiate for the meeting

JohnGaul
NZThS

It's going to be interesting watching how this one develops. This could be the event that NIWA suggested had a greater chance of happening than usual this year, given the atmospheric conditions (neutral-ish SOI, negative southern annular mode) that had kind of left the door open for "number three".

I see MetService has given it a passing nod in its severe weather outlook but rates the chance of warning amounts of heavy snow as low at this stage.

Welcome along Paul

Yes, looks like snow on the cards later in the week for the South Island. 12Z gfs suggests heavy falls inland.

I flew down to Dunedin for the weekend and the Southern Alps sure looked good with all the snow.

GFS looking nice now with a decent SE dumping Thursday/Friday to low levels.

Latest MetService Severe Weather Outlook now includes a 'moderate risk' of heavy snow in Canterbury and the south of Marlborough on Friday.

I'm new to all of this, been quite interesting observing the weather so far this winter. So what's it looking like for Friday for the city and region? Snow to sea level again? I finally found the newspaper article I kept from back in 92 of the snowstorm at the end of August that year. Are we at more risk of snow to sea level with the south easterly flow?

snowykiwi wrote:Are we at more risk of snow to sea level with the south easterly flow?

Inland Canterbury certainly is more exposed with a SE flow. Latest GFS run showing the bulk of the moisture out to the east, the high needs to weaken a little to allow that moisture to come closer to NZ. Their looks to be a brief flick but its certainly the least impressive of the 3 set ups followed so far this winter. For some reason the outputs at weather noble are not updating on GFS so this is based on the metvuw charts. The chart posted at the top of this section was looking more promising than it is now. It would be too good to be true to get 3 decent sea level snow events in one season!

Sigh, here we go again ....lots of time between now and then - don't think it'll be anything like the last two snowfalls, but we'll see....

Fantastic mild evening out there tonight with NW aloft! very nice indeed, has been one those afternoons with not much win!
In regards to this weekends possible outbreak, im not really to botherd either way, yes be nice to see more snow and all again but its been awesome to have two snow storms in a winter so lucky with that.
Would be nice to see some thunderstorm activity in the next month or so esp in late october/ start november when it warms up more and the NE sea breeze kicks in along the coast!

Looks standard to me,be nothing like the 15th august etc.just run of the mill weather from the southerly quater showers,wind etc,spring is the boringest season up here.

I see Metservice have just updated at 11.49am this morning, snow to low levels for their Christchurch forecast for later on Thursday. How is the latest GFS run looking?

snowykiwi wrote:I see Metservice have just updated at 11.49am this morning, snow to low levels for their Christchurch forecast for later on Thursday. How is the latest GFS run looking?

With only 8.3mm of moisture and thickness over the critical 520 it looks to me to be a non event

Razor wrote:

snowykiwi wrote:I see Metservice have just updated at 11.49am this morning, snow to low levels for their Christchurch forecast for later on Thursday. How is the latest GFS run looking?

With only 8.3mm of moisture and thickness over the critical 520 it looks to me to be a non event

Agreed!

wouldnt be at all surprised to see clear sunny skies and a SW change thurs night but nothing much in the way of sleet, snow..

Exactly, will be a brief flick with snow to about 400m im guessing clearing within few hours or so. Not sure why there is moderate chance of heavy snow inland either. The flow to me looks SW not SE.

I guess the thinking may be that a small trough of low pressure is forming in that cold air on Thursday night and thicker cloud in that could bring a more sustained spell of snow to low levels overnight and before about 9am Friday. Have to agree I'd be surprised if we had more than a few flurries in Chch at first on Friday, and if any settles in the city it would only amount to a patchy covering here and there.

yes like its only two days out now so it should be clear whats going to happen by now surely.??
The maps don't match the forecast

It wont be much a brief flick on thursday night with wintry showers some sleet and snow flakes mixed in clap of thunder etc , then be clear by friday morning.
Nothing will accumulate enough though, still will be nice to have abit of action weather.
520THK is still cold enough for flurries 525 is generally the cut off provided the other factors come into play.

Razor wrote:

snowykiwi wrote:I see Metservice have just updated at 11.49am this morning, snow to low levels for their Christchurch forecast for later on Thursday. How is the latest GFS run looking?

With only 8.3mm of moisture and thickness over the critical 520 it looks to me to be a non event

Thats 8cm of snow remember 1mm rain = 1cm snow not that i think it will happen tho.

I think that at the meeting for the South Island Forum members on Saturday afternoon here, we will have a fine clear afternoon/evening with nothing much to glance at towards TC.
Maybe a bit cold

JohnGaul
NZThS

Looking fawred to seeing TC anyways John lol hopefully lots of thunderious activity