Tasman Low / Active Front(s) - Sep 11-15

[Tornado Tim]

Owhhh, I am loving the look of this forecast!

slpwind36.png

At the current moment GFS has stormy conditions for the West of the NI on Sunday Evening and Monday.

Will have to see how this low develops later on, but its looking very very interesting.

It has been such a long time since a good low has developed in the Tasman, were used to getting the lows from the Antarctic.

[jamie]

Sunday is looking interesting to say the least

[Tornado Tim]

This Low is getting quite firm in the models, need one or two more days to firm up something. But it looks very good atm

[NZstorm]

Looks like there could be a good thunderstorm set up later Monday over the west and upper North Island. Something to watch in the gfs but 4 days out.

[Tornado Tim]

GFS has been pretty adamant on this setup, it hasn't changed much in the past 4 days.

[NZstorm]

GFS has been pretty adamant on this setup, it hasn't changed much in the past 4 days.

Mondays' set up though has sharpened up in the gfs with a decent shortwave in the eastern Tasman on Monday.
As for Sunday, could be thunder possibilities there, looks like a spell of heavy rain atleast.

[Tornado Tim]

CBs are exploding on the front coming in from the west, expect the lightning trackers to pick up more lightning as the day progresses

[Manukau heads obs]

been a while since I even checked my boltec
see one strike so far
front does look impressive!
3 fogs in a row is folklore for rain coming...

[David]

Have you had fog the last 3 mornings Brian? There hasn't been any out this way.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, valley fog type
big was thick this morning, came off the harbour...did not clear until 9:30

[Manukau heads obs]

theres lightning in them approaching rain clouds

[Michael]

The models were consistant from t240 with some sort of a low in the tasman,from the 31st Aug

Wind3285032and32mslp_Australia_240.gif

[Tornado Tim]

A fair bit of lightning in the front and the showers behind it

[NZstorm]

Just had a glimpse of the sun here after a morning of rain (15mm since 9am). Weather should gradually improve in Auckland.

Latest run of the GFS looks potentially interesting this week with a stream of cold upper across NZ with impulses passing through on a daily basis.

[bmo]

Just had the most intense rain shower i have ever heard here. Sounded like an airplane taking off on top of our roof. Even had some hail in it! Loving this weather after all the sunshine!

[NZstorm]

Can see a line of heavy showers in the W and NW. If the temperature could sneak up a bit we would get thunder but skies are so cloudy. Temp currently 15C dp 14C.

[David]

Up to 19mm here today. Been a few heavy bursts, particularly around 12.45pm.

[NZstorm]

IC lightning/thunder here just now.

[Michael]

Rediculous forecasting 19-20c on a day when a substantial front is to roll through,any clearance be too late to achieve it.Dont know why such maximums are forecasted in this situation.

[David]

Rediculous forecasting 19-20c on a day when a substantial front is to roll through,any clearance be too late to achieve it.Dont know why such maximums are forecasted in this situation.

It is strange. I see Metservice revised down to 18 for today (yesterday they said 19) but still sounds too high.

[NZstorm]

Lightning distant thunder to west.

[Michael]

Hear the thunder it wasnt a plane either!

[NZstorm]

Getting showers here and another rumble.

[David]

Heard a distant brief rumble here but can't really see much out to the west.

[spwill]

Yes, some distant lightning flashes seen here and thunder heard.