Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

The upper trough will be parked over us today and the upper air is quite cold 500mb-22C. Daytime heating will produce instability from Northland to Waitomo, CAPE values up to 800j/kg. Have to see how the low level convergence plays out but the gfs indicates a convergence line in place over Northland down to just west of Auckland. So a few thunderstorms should fire up this afternoon with the activity drifting southward. Small hail likely.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by spwill »

A convergence line formed over Auckland yesterday afternoon, a low top cloud line with a few showers by evening.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes,that looked great from here, was a good layer of instability, great looking cloud bases
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Nev »

MetService's 8am Severe Thunderstorm Outlook update now has that risk for later today. And yes, they've now included small hail. ;-)
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

talking about (small) hail, there was a report of it falling not far from here during mondays active warm front thunderstorm
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by jamie »

ohhhh low risk of sever storms for northland tomorrow!!!!
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see there is a line of showers already on the north shore...
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by jamie »

Manukau heads obs wrote:I see there is a line of showers already on the north shore...
Those showers wont do any good. Starting too early. I suspect they will only pollute the surronding atmosphere with cold air.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

shower just passed to the NW of me has gone glaciated already,anvil and all
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

M/S put out a nice graphic of the lightning strikes yesterday via their facebook feed
I guess it could be re posted here?
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by spwill »

More NE breeze today which should keep out sea breeze convergece. Some towering Cu and isolated showers about.
A pleasant 19C, dewpoint 13C.
Edit, I see a line of showers has developed near Auckland/Northland west coast with isolated thunderstorms.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

nice CB just off the coast here, real black :)
inflow shelf cloud and all
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by David »

Had a high of 20.1 here today, warmer than yesterday & the first time my station has hit 20C since May. A dry day.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Vertigo »

yea brian, thats a massive and ominous looking thunderstorm going by the looks of the radar..
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

can see good CB tops to my SE, in the waikato, and am picking up strikes from them :)
rain radar shows to be on the Kaimais
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by jamie »

Havent heard any thunder... i was outside and i got soaked!!!!
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Cloudy and very unstructured to the NE Brian from my view anyway.

NW looks a bit better......
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by jamie »

SW looks best
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Nev »

Puhoi Tornado/funnel Video - posted on facebook by Times FM (Orewa radio station). Looks like it briefly touched down. My guess is around about 10:30am?

Comments by Metservice at Stuff - Tornado hits near Puhoi tunnel

And comments by WeatherWatch at NZ Herald - Small tornado north of Auckland

:smile:

Edit: May have been a little earlier going by the radar...
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Thanks for finding the video, definitely a tornado
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

good stuff :)
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by spwill »

Could see the shower clouds building over North Auckland this morning, good to see that clip.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

Interesting tornado report.

Looks like the convergence will be more over Auckland tomorrow so we should see showers, unlike today which was mainly fine.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

12Z gfs points to a nice day for Auckland with just the chance of an isolated convergence shower. We'll take that, I'm enjoying this fine mild weather.
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Re: Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

no 2 days are the same....
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