Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 05/10/2011 07:27

The upper trough will be parked over us today and the upper air is quite cold 500mb-22C. Daytime heating will produce instability from Northland to Waitomo, CAPE values up to 800j/kg. Have to see how the low level convergence plays out but the gfs indicates a convergence line in place over Northland down to just west of Auckland. So a few thunderstorms should fire up this afternoon with the activity drifting southward. Small hail likely.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 05/10/2011 08:19

A convergence line formed over Auckland yesterday afternoon, a low top cloud line with a few showers by evening.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 08:21

yes,that looked great from here, was a good layer of instability, great looking cloud bases

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 05/10/2011 08:30

MetService's 8am Severe Thunderstorm Outlook update now has that risk for later today. And yes, they've now included small hail.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 09:43

talking about (small) hail, there was a report of it falling not far from here during mondays active warm front thunderstorm

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 05/10/2011 10:06

ohhhh low risk of sever storms for northland tomorrow!!!!

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 10:27

I see there is a line of showers already on the north shore...

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 05/10/2011 10:37

Manukau heads obs wrote:I see there is a line of showers already on the north shore...

Those showers wont do any good. Starting too early. I suspect they will only pollute the surronding atmosphere with cold air.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 10:48

shower just passed to the NW of me has gone glaciated already,anvil and all

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 12:47

M/S put out a nice graphic of the lightning strikes yesterday via their facebook feed
I guess it could be re posted here?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 05/10/2011 14:18

More NE breeze today which should keep out sea breeze convergece. Some towering Cu and isolated showers about.
A pleasant 19C, dewpoint 13C.
Edit, I see a line of showers has developed near Auckland/Northland west coast with isolated thunderstorms.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 15:12

nice CB just off the coast here, real black

inflow shelf cloud and all

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 05/10/2011 15:32

Had a high of 20.1 here today, warmer than yesterday & the first time my station has hit 20C since May. A dry day.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Wed 05/10/2011 16:33

yea brian, thats a massive and ominous looking thunderstorm going by the looks of the radar..

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 16:38

can see good CB tops to my SE, in the waikato, and am picking up strikes from them

rain radar shows to be on the Kaimais
Tim?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 05/10/2011 16:39

Havent heard any thunder... i was outside and i got soaked!!!!

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 05/10/2011 16:59

Cloudy and very unstructured to the NE Brian from my view anyway.

NW looks a bit better......

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 05/10/2011 17:31

SW looks best

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 05/10/2011 19:00

Puhoi Tornado/funnel Video - posted on facebook by Times FM (Orewa radio station). Looks like it briefly touched down. My guess is around about 10:30am?

Comments by Metservice at Stuff - Tornado hits near Puhoi tunnel

And comments by WeatherWatch at NZ Herald - Small tornado north of Auckland

Edit: May have been a little earlier going by the radar...
.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 05/10/2011 19:15

Thanks for finding the video, definitely a tornado

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2011 19:39

good stuff

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 05/10/2011 20:08

Could see the shower clouds building over North Auckland this morning, good to see that clip.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 05/10/2011 20:36

Interesting tornado report.

Looks like the convergence will be more over Auckland tomorrow so we should see showers, unlike today which was mainly fine.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 06/10/2011 07:00

12Z gfs points to a nice day for Auckland with just the chance of an isolated convergence shower. We'll take that, I'm enjoying this fine mild weather.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 06/10/2011 07:32

no 2 days are the same....

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Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

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