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Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Sun 16/10/2011 21:31
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Looks like many eastern SI places, especially south of Woodend Beach, may get a good fall of rain, starting tomorrow night and continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday and even including Central Otago.
I have never seen a heavy rain warning for Central Otago so that might be interesting.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 07:46
by CHCH Weather Chaser
GFS going for well over 100mm south of CHCH and about 75mm for Christchurch. Metservice saying rain developing tonight and heavy falls Tuesday and Wednesday for Christchurch, however, Tuesday looks pretty dry here and seems that Wednesday will be the wet day.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 10:40
by Twizel Dave
Hello all! According to someone who gets email from the Met service, more than 1 metre of snow is forecast for the high country tops on Tuesday!
Dave.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 11:51
by Andy
Central Otago needs this rain! Clear blue skies here today.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 12:21
by Nev
Twizel Dave wrote:Hello all! According to someone who gets email from the Met service, more than 1 metre of snow is forecast for the high country tops on Tuesday!
Yes, although I think that's, 'from midnight tonight until early Wednesday morning that one metre of snow could accumulate above 1000 metres', according to this morn's 10:34am '
Snow Otago Warnings'. Lighter falls 'may fall as low as 600 metres'.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 13:15
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Its weird, GFS is going for 84mm for CHCH but on the GFS output maps (3 day rainfall) Metservice uses it looks like no more than 15-20mm...? I sent Bob McDavitt an email enquiring about rainfall from this event and he said christchurch could miss out altogether with some models indicating that and others suggesting around 20mm.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 13:56
by Chris Raine
Currently fine and breezy northeasterly in Oamaru. Weather Warnings to the community have been issued by Civil Defence . Now we wait to see what happens. We are dry and could do with 25mm but the forecasted 100-150mm may be a tad too much
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 14:38
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Yes Oamaru is certainly looking like it will take a pounding.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 14:52
by snowstormwatcher
GFS going for 84mm for here starting early tuesday, Dont think we will see that much but 50-60mm seems quite likely.
Nice and fine today though, Currently 18 degrees.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 16:45
by Andy
Light rain starting to fall here now.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 17:48
by Chris Raine
Now cloudy and threatening to the west . Farmers are warned , low lying homeowners and those prone to flooding also advised .CD cordinators and their volunteers all notified .Media notices issued . Now we wait
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 18:10
by Razor
Some pretty funky mammatus around here at the moment. Very dramatic sky, and a few spits of rain
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 18:18
by Richard
Latest radar is showing mod-heavy rain around Dunedin and towards inland,considering that area is a blind spot in the radar system,it must be pissing down right now.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 19:02
by Orion
First puff of wind from the southwest here five minutes ago.
Temperature was 18.2 degrees then, now 17.3.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 20:42
by Chris Raine
Light rain in Oamaru , still NW though
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 20:44
by Chris Raine
Nope we are now Southwest!
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 20:51
by Richard
Looking fantastic for an interesting day tomorrow my way,dont mind at all been north of the main rain bearing front with this kind of forecast
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 21:16
by trickytiger
yes looking very interesting here tomorrow, hopefully it eventuates and we get a decent thunderstorm. Just a pity I have to work tomorrow at least i'll still see and hear it whether i'm in the shed or not
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 21:26
by Andy
10mm of rain here since 5pm, temp 7 degrees.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 21:32
by Fujita Phil
Richard wrote:Latest radar is showing mod-heavy rain around Dunedin and towards inland,considering that area is a blind spot in the radar system,it must be pissing down right now.
Not a drop yet in Dunedin
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 21:38
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
I finished all the lawns today but this afternoon did notice a nice line of developing castellanus to the north-west. Castellanus usually means a possible tendancy for thunderstorm development later.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Mon 17/10/2011 23:56
by Chris Raine
We had lots of castellanus today as well. Now raining steadily , breezy Southerly 9.9 degrees
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Tue 18/10/2011 06:36
by snowstormwatcher
Only just started raining heavily here in the last hour. 6mm so far.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Tue 18/10/2011 08:06
by CHCH Weather Chaser
snowstormwatcher wrote:Only just started raining heavily here in the last hour. 6mm so far.
The heaviest rain for the area is still hours away. Little bit of shower activity popping up on the radar now for here. Not going to get the sunny spells to allow for heating here. Dull with low cloud, southerly breeze and looks like it will start drizzling any minute.
Re: Heavy Rain Event for the Eastern South Island 18 & 19th Oct.
Posted: Tue 18/10/2011 08:18
by Richard
Clear sky here with a convergences line out to the east, this cloud is moving to SW,also building cloud is now popping up all round,Looking really good
10deg and no wind currently