NZ Weather Forum

Looking like Cup Week and Show Week could be a traditonally warm one here in Christchurch. NW flow looks on the cards with temperatures possibly reaching near 30 for the first time in isolated areas. The start of the month though looks unsettled as we know with a reasonable area of low pressure moving quickly down the nation followed by colder southerlies in behind later in the week with snow to around 600m or so in the deep south on the cards.

Some omph as Jim would say in the front on Friday with colder air, could well see some thunderstorms sneak up on the wind change although it will be NW before hand.
But yes a warm start to the month with summer just about poking its head around the door.

26.7 degrees at 11am at jeffs. A very warm morning with the sun out and no wind. Average wind speed 0.4km with maximum gust since midnight of 10km/h (which is currently). High cloud with us now and no sun, looks like we have seen the last of the big yellow today and temperature dropped down to 25.2 now with that. Feels very mild and bearable now.

This is in the Metservice thunderstorm outlook tomorrow afternoon for North Otago to Mid-North Canterbury.

"These thunderstorms are expected to be relatively slow moving and so could deliver rain rates in the 10-25mm/hr range and hail around 10-15mm in diameter. There is also the possibility that the wind shear environment may be favourable for the formation of a small tornado with one of these thunderstorms..."

Overcast with light rain in Auckland. 17C.


Looking at the 12Z gfs, Thursday looks like the thunder/hail day for the east of the South Island, particularly Otago.

I'm looking at tomorrow with interest to Leighton, will write more later. Spose initial thoughts are hope we don't get too much cloud cover leading to reduced heating but I haven't really looked at too much at this stage. Here's hoping something happens!

Cheers
Aaron

Oh boy quite possibly some of the worst reporting i have ever seen. Acording to NZ herlad BOP ranges and Fiordland will recieve nearly 1m of rain each. Easy mistake but silly one to do.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=10763149

NZ herald

In the 15 hours from 9am, another 60-80cm is expected in Fiordland south of Doubtful Sound.

In the ranges of the Bay of Plenty, rain is expected to get heavier this evening, with 70-90cm expected in the 15 hours from 6pm. During this time 50mm may fall in some coastal areas.

Do they not edit these before they go online?

23 degrees here this afternoon. First time since April where the temp has stayed in double figures overnight.

Some mostly light rain here this afternoon, more active looking Cb( isolated thunderstorms) have formed on the front northwest of Northland /Auckland.
http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/satellite/ ... ye=1&lyf=1
On the humid side for early November, 16-17C dewpoint.

A southerly change is expected to move up the east coast through the afternoon and evening. With the cold temperatures aloft, afternoon heating and wind convergence, there is a moderate risk of afternoon thunderstorms from eastern Otago to mid-north Canterbury. These thunderstorms are expected to be relatively slow moving and so could deliver rain rates in the 10-25mm/hr range and hail around 10-15mm in diameter. There is also the possibility that the wind shear environment may be favorable for the formation of a small tornado with one of these thunderstorms, but this is only tentative at this stage.

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... rm-outlook

Unsure the need for stuff to write an article about the risk of tornadoes, almost scaremongering.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/5 ... ristchurch

Yes, agree Steve. Anyway, work time.

Unsure the need for stuff to write an article about the risk of tornadoes,

Its an odd ball prediction.



Looks cold for Invercargill later this week. I see 850mb temps -6C on gfs. And the hotter airmass for Monday is still there on the gfs!

Good downpour here currently as the front moves over.

I see the BOP hi res rain radar (due to Rena) , M/S have expanded its coverage
now covers the waikato...maybe due to my suggestion would have helped with milk disposal on pasture (which is still on going (re the milk stored in effluent ponds)
in any case, great!
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... last-2-hrs

spwill wrote:Good downpour here currently as the front moves over.

Must be localised - no heavy rain here. Patchy light rain with a few moderate showers mixed in. Was hoping for better rain than this - didn't really want everything to be dry before summer even starts...

Some lightning activity on the the front near Great Barrier Island.....

As long as there is some sun out tomorrow I'm thinking there should be some storms somewhere, but the low is a little complex and a slight movement could mean storms won't be say around chch and will more likely be nearer Timaru for e.g. At this stage its looking more South / Mid Canterbury and early to mid afternoon, fingers crossed and I'll be out and about hopefully if it looks promising in the morning.

Cheers
Aaron

Yea tricky one, very low risk to me at this stage for much to happen let along a tornado. Like Aaron says depends were the low moves depends were anything might happen. Even so Ive charged the batteries anyway. Friday looks better.

what were you doing posting at 03:10am Aaron?

Nice to hear the heavy rain on the roof last night. 17mm.

Just 5mm over this way in the last 24 hrs.
Fairly sunny atm - light to moderate NW'er - 15C overnight - currently over 17C.

Gisborne on 20C already!

03Stormchaser wrote:Yea tricky one, very low risk to me at this stage for much to happen let along a tornado. Like Aaron says depends were the low moves depends were anything might happen. Even so Ive charged the batteries anyway. Friday looks better.

Have started a new thread, I think it looks very promising for storms here today

03Stormchaser wrote: very low risk to me at this stage for much to happen let along a tornado. Like Aaron says depends were the low moves depends were anything might happen.

Yes, I prefer to see colder upper level air. Friday looks the day to me at this stage

Light rain here now.

Razor wrote:Light rain here now.

Really? Sun is shining brightly here with the most blue sky showing all day

Yes Leighton Just a light drizzle shower under a 7/8ths overcast sky here in central ChCh

EDIT sun trying to come back out now 20 mins later