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Canterbury Non Thunder Nov 2nd but Possibly the 4th

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 08:45
by Razor
Well well the misty drizzle is radiply clearing and some interesting cloud blowups already apparently starting overhead here in ChCh

With some decent sun and a NE developing it could be a real cracker this afternoon

(also noting we are nearly 48 hours without an aftershock- I think thats a record since Sept 3 2010)

Hopefully no thunder from down under today....only aloft

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 09:00
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Yes still a lot of low cloud about but the sun is trying to pop through at times and where it does appear you can be some bubbling CU above the lower level cloud. Clear sky, clear!

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 09:01
by Manukau heads obs
sounds like a great setup.....get ready to chase!

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 09:29
by Razor
Low cloud has come back in, hold the phone

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 09:35
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Razor wrote:Low cloud has come back in, hold the phone
Yes was thinking the same thing. The good thing is its reasonably mild out there, but it isnt looking so promising currently. I give it hour and a half tops to clear or goodbye to that.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 09:43
by Manukau heads obs
low cloud is OK...means there is lots of moisture and there is a cap (inversion)
sounds like a good setup
get ready to chase in the afternoon

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 10:28
by Razor
Its trying to break here, touch and go

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 10:36
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Key hour coming up. 13 degrees currently with a DP of 10. Light SW breeze.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 10:56
by NZstorm
I agree with 03stormchaser, the risk looks quite low today. If the cold upper air can come in a bit quicker something could fire over the North Otago/South Canterbury but its a struggle to get instability today.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 11:24
by Razor
Bright sunshine between scattered cloud here with a light NE

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 11:41
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Razor wrote:Bright sunshine between scattered cloud here with a light NE
sun is out here now too. Still lots of cloud about. Any interesting cloud formations from your viewpoint? 16.3 degrees now with a very light SW.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 11:48
by Chris Raine
Overcast in Oamaru . temp 13.4 C light SW.Needs to clear a bit if anything is to happen

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 11:57
by Razor
You can forget about any action weather here today.

Met service wide of the mark after all

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 12:02
by 03Stormchaser
Nothing happening yet, but then metservice hadnt predicted anything would by now anyway razor. It is heating up nicely tho.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 12:05
by Lacertae
I'm heading south in a few minutes, I'll send txt updates to whoever wants, my cell is 021 163 6094. I trust MS when it comes to the possibility of small tornadoes, let's hope I'm not a fool !
See you guys later, hopefully with some interesting material. ;)

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 12:54
by CHCH Weather Chaser
When that sun comes through it almost feels hot and then when it goes behind the cloud its a tad cool. Cloud build ups arent impressive. The temperature is there now though at 19.3 with a dp of 11.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 13:01
by NZstorm
I trust MS when it comes to the possibility of small tornadoes,
But there is no shear there. 850mb flow is 10kts on gfs.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 13:51
by Manukau heads obs
there will be vorticity associated with the low crossing the southern alps
that vorticity will get transfered to canterbury as the low tries to cross over the alps
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/NEWZIR.JPG

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 15:13
by Orion
Has been dull and overcast here all day; currently 17.0 degrees and 69% humidity; light rain has begun to fall and the breeze is northerly. Nothing spectacular on the horizon.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 15:45
by Chris Raine
Light shower here in Oamaru , radar shows some activity building on the north side of the Waitaki River inland

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 15:48
by snowstormwatcher
Not much chance of any storms here, cloud cover all day with a few spits of rain.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 16:07
by Razor
ChCh radar picking up something decent inland of rakaia?

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 16:23
by Chris Raine
Looks like something heavy around the Waitaki Bridge area on SH 1

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 16:28
by Orion
Rain getting heavier here; wind has freshened, still from the north.
Down to 17.7 degrees [after being 18.5 earlier]; 64% humidity.
Looks like banks of very rainy low greyish clouds both to north-east and to distant south.

Re: Canterbury Thunder 2 Nov?

Posted: Wed 02/11/2011 17:00
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Nevermind, perhaps Friday will be more interesting for us. A muggy day none the less today. Completely overcast here again now.