T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Looking like the central North Island convergence zone sets up tomorrow with afternoon thunder from about Ruapehu through to the BOP and over Gisborne as well. With cold upper level air there will be some hail.
-
- Posts: 3667
- Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
- Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 6332
- Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
- Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Latest Update:
Edit: Slight amendment made to initial outlook.MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 11:35am Sunday 13 Nov 2011
The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. This is expected to lead to the development of showers with some thunderstorms from Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, to Taihape and Hawkes Bay. About the ranges of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay and across the the Bay of Plenty, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
For eastern Waikato, Taupo, Taihape and central Hawkes Bay, the risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening is considered moderate. Thunderstorms through these areas have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr to localised places and hail.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, Taumarunui and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 3667
- Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
- Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Yeah baby, Yeah!
Bring it on... I sure hope my boss ordered the part I need and it arrives in timely manner tomorrow morning so I can head down to Opotiki.
Might go and refresh the Rain X on the car windscreen
Bring it on... I sure hope my boss ordered the part I need and it arrives in timely manner tomorrow morning so I can head down to Opotiki.
Might go and refresh the Rain X on the car windscreen
-
- Posts: 754
- Joined: Thu 06/11/2008 06:12
- Location: Waimairi Beach, Christchurch
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Yep good idea, redo the RainEx !
The Earth has music for those who listen.
-
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
TT index for 00Z 1pm tomorrow.
A small area of TT55 over the central North Island which is a good thunder indicator.
A small area of TT55 over the central North Island which is a good thunder indicator.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 6332
- Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
- Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Tonight's update also has extended the high risk area to include more central parts...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:03pm Sunday 13 Nov 2011
The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across to the Bay of Plenty and Taupo, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending out to Taumarunui and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr, also hail, to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2068
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
- Location: Mt Somers
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Look forward to see what happens up there tomorrow
-
- Posts: 3667
- Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
- Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Sadly I won't be going to Opotiki today. But dependent upon the look of things, there is a good chance I'll have a look regardless.
It'll be interesting to see Metservices update this morning.
It'll be interesting to see Metservices update this morning.
-
- Posts: 1056
- Joined: Sun 28/09/2003 21:27
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Looks like the action is starting there already!, Tall shower cloud tops around Whakatane showing on the Auckland and Mahia radars so some good height and now first lightning showing from that way..
-
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Looks like the main convergence line this afternoon will set up from Waiouru to Rotorua. Forecast LI's are -3 today.
Cold air means hail, a lack of shear means the hail will be small.(less than 2cm).
Cold air means hail, a lack of shear means the hail will be small.(less than 2cm).
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
has a thunder day look to it today. hopefully somthing can float around the hamilton area but looks rather unlikey with the trough so far away from us
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
M/S update out
I think Pirongia/south waikato area might even get something
might be good for a chase later on?
I think Pirongia/south waikato area might even get something
might be good for a chase later on?
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 6332
- Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
- Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Here's this morn' update...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:41am Monday 14 Nov 2011
A cold upper trough should move across the central North Island this afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across the Bay of Plenty, and the central North Island high country to eastern Waikato and Taumarunui, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. Additionally for the Bay of Plenty, Taupo and the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, there is a moderate threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 30-40mm/hr and hail 15-25mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending further west over Waikato and Waitomo and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected late morning and during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui and Taranaki as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
if i were chasing i would stay clear of the early crap. Whakatane looks like it had a one strike wonder earlyer thismorning and looks to be a lot of convective junk around that area going by the radar. Somehwere back inland closer to rotorua could be the spot maybe? Or even further back towards Taupo?
What are peoples thoughts?
What are peoples thoughts?
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Might Take a drive to the BOP today, is anyone thinking about a chase? perhaps we can link up?
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
cloud breaking up here now....
if there is good build ups in the sth waikato I would been to meet up with somefrom auckland?
if there is good build ups in the sth waikato I would been to meet up with somefrom auckland?
-
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
I think the set up is too distant from Auckland for me to chase today, and the chase country is poor east of the Waikato.
Also the light upper winds are a negative, 05kts at 500mb over Taupo, 15kts above Rotorua. The weaker upper flow limits any severe potential.
Also the light upper winds are a negative, 05kts at 500mb over Taupo, 15kts above Rotorua. The weaker upper flow limits any severe potential.
-
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
On the Lake Taupo webcam you can see the convection starting to bubble up. http://www.takeabreak.co.nz/accommodation/taupo.asp
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
interestingly there is a CB out to sea from here....to my west...
looks like a convergence....between the SWer, and lighter winds in the ridge to the north?
picking up more and more strikes in the eastern BOP from here now...
M/S hi res for waikato/BOP (thanks M/S!)
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... last-2-hrs
shows some showers developing in the sth waikato now
looks like a convergence....between the SWer, and lighter winds in the ridge to the north?
picking up more and more strikes in the eastern BOP from here now...
M/S hi res for waikato/BOP (thanks M/S!)
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... last-2-hrs
shows some showers developing in the sth waikato now
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Yup some striking going on now
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
WOW thats a neat image from MS! Love the high res. That storm due east of Taupo township is a decent one!.
Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?
Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
the taupo cam NZstorm posted is showing some great looking CB's now over the central NI mountains
that CB over Taupo town now blew up real quick just to the north of there, going by the rain radar
that CB over Taupo town now blew up real quick just to the north of there, going by the rain radar
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
Yup, and ontop on WWLN lightning data toojamie.haultain wrote: Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14
neat... now loop it at high res and 7 mins.... thanks Tim! haha
jeez your not wrong Brian... awesome web cam shots from this afternoon. look really strong updrafts.
jeez your not wrong Brian... awesome web cam shots from this afternoon. look really strong updrafts.