Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Locked
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like some unstable weather over the inland North Island Friday pm. Recent model runs have been consistent with bringing in moisture (dp15C) Friday with an upper tough/cold upper air over the area. Have to see how this shapes up but looks like the main convergence will be over the Taupo region, but thunderstorms/hail from Hawkes Bay across to Waitomo. The weakness in this set up in the eastward progression of the colder upper during the afternoon. Tomorrow morning we will know better, but given its December the thunder probs must be good.

500mb chart for 1pm
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Dewpoint plot for 4pm tomorrow. Moisture is not looking so good on the 00Z gfs run.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by jamie »

Leaving palmy tomorrow for a weekend in taihape before back to Hamilton next week. What are the chances of a storm taihape way tomorrow?
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

NZstorm wrote:Dewpoint plot for 4pm tomorrow. Moisture is not looking so good on the 00Z gfs run.
16°C is usually suffice, but I wouldnt want it to go lower than that.

Here are some nice zoomed up GFS Charts:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

What are the chances of a storm taihape way?
Chances of a ts over the Taihape region look good for mid to late afternoon. The high ground of the central North Island looks good some cb development this afternoon.

The west of Waikato could see an isolated storm but I don't like the way the upper trough is pulling away this afternoon.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by jamie »

looks to me like an east cape event today.

Tuesday looks good for the upper north island from what i can see.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

looks to me like an east cape event today.
there will be convergence/lift over the centre of the Island but a question mark over the amount of instability. The more sunshine/heating today the better.

I agree that Tuesday is looking a lot better. Hope the gfs verifies.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps all a bit far from Auckland today for an afternoon drive but I will keep an eye on it , hopefully plenty of afternoon heating and a seabreeze for western Waikato.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Flip this is getting me excited!!!! I so hope it comes true on the 5th! ;)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by jamie »

yup tuesday looking good alright. Where do you get those zoomed in maps tim? i just tend to use weather zone maps so not in any real detail for our area.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I use a program called opengrads to do the GFS plotting, however the program isnt GUI based and requires scripting access.

I could help you set it up if you wish but it does require you knowing commands to do what you want (similar to old DOS days, LOL)
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

nice summer time looking shower line /convergence line moved through here, not to the south of me...
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by spwill »

On the muggy side here with 17C dewpoints now, cloud/sunshine 22C, fresh northeast breeze, some small towering Cu, watching for some west coast convergence Waikato way. I see Hamilton has a dewpoint of 15C.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Picture...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Some nice blow ups over the Gisborne ranges now. Tracker shows some strikes.

Raglan wind is NE 12km/h. So no west coast sea breeze there.
borris89
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon 06/02/2006 21:21
Location: Havelock North, Hawkes Bay/ Dunedin, Otago
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by borris89 »

Massive storms over the northern HB ranges at the moment, went up very fast
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by jamie »

Yup massive thunderstorm over the ranges towards hawksbay from taihape. Great view here. Big CG's dropping.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

I'm looking at that shower cloud over the west of Waikato from Grey Lynn and the cb's are trying to build.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by spwill »

I drove down to north Waikato mid afternoon, towering Cu showers down there( photo), maybe an isolated storm there in the next hr. Looks like plenty of action further south, much of that will be over high ground.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Richard »

borris89 wrote:Massive storms over the northern HB ranges at the moment, went up very fast
Grab ya camera borris, would love to see them :D

Fantastic photo spwill...love it =D>
borris89
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon 06/02/2006 21:21
Location: Havelock North, Hawkes Bay/ Dunedin, Otago
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by borris89 »

Some low sea cloud stuff has come in with this easterly but if it clears I'll be sure to do that
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by jamie »

Wow me brother is 30km north of taihape an they just watched a tornado hit some trees! Dam im so jealous! He said he got some crap photos as they are driving
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Look forward to the arriving flight Monday afternoon... Question is... Will I get straight into my car and chase?

So many photo's to go through already, getting a storm in NZ would be a great returning present :)
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Wow me brother is 30km north of taihape an they just watched a tornado hit some trees!
cool!
thats a bit unexpected...the CB's did not look that intense up this way further
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Locked