Christmas Day Forecast

[Michael]

At this stage 12 or so days out would reckon judging by models we'll be in either a wet or warm period inbetween anticyclones over the day,dont actually mind it cooler or rain on the day myself.

[jamie]

could quite safely put your money on a NE type flow with cloud and drizzle for the north half of the north island i think.
Quite similar to what we are today and yesterday and forecast for the rest of the week

[Manukau heads obs]

certainly looks that way.....
this month is making up for all the SW/W winds of last month

[Richard]

I'd be happy with a NE type flow for the day,still early days yet

[Storm Struck]

Blue skies going for a northerly xmas eve and a southerly change on xmas day with showers, wouldnt mind if those showers were thunderstorms be a nice xmas present

[NZstorm]

Latest gfs chart for Xmas day. Maybe a cloudy E with a few showers for Auckland.

[spwill]

At this stage I think it will be fine for Auckland and a mostly fine Xmas day around NZ with a High dominating our weather. East coasts from Gisborne to Northland will likely see some cloud and perhaps an isolated shower in the E/SE flow.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Fine Fine Fine
Looks like the weather over the Christmas period which will delight most New Zealanders with a stubborn anticyclone over the country. Hope it dosen't produce low cloud stuck under it which could happen

[NZstorm]

Fine Fine Fine
Looks like the weather over the Christmas period which will delight most New Zealanders with a stubborn anticyclone over the country. Hope it dosen't produce low cloud stuck under it which could happen

Yes, looking great for Xmas. Only Gisborne and Northland may catch some cloud with an onshore flow. Looks hot over the inland South Island and very warm inland North Island. GFS indicates some inland heat showers over the South Island but I can't see where the moisture is coming from.

[melja]

Fine Fine Fine
Looks like the weather over the Christmas period which will delight most New Zealanders with a stubborn anticyclone over the country. Hope it dosen't produce low cloud stuck under it which could happen

Yes, looking great for Xmas. Only Gisborne and Northland may catch some cloud with an onshore flow. Looks hot over the inland South Island and very warm inland North Island. GFS indicates some inland heat showers over the South Island but I can't see where the moisture is coming from.

Large hydro lakes but im not sure if this can happen?

[NZstorm]

Large hydro lakes but im not sure if this can happen?

Yes, you do get some moistening of the air from daytime evapotranspiration. I have seen it happen in USA, showers from ET moisture.

But not sure it could happen in the South Island. I think the moisture will mix out.

[Richard]

Well it has happened before during periods of high pressure in past summers so inland heat showers are possible

[NZstorm]

Well it has happened before during periods of high pressure in past summers so inland heat showers are possible

I'm not saying you can't get inland heat showers in an anticyclone. I'm just asking the question about the moisture on the 25th.
If you can get the high out to the east of the country (NE flow) then that can bring moisture in.

[Richard]

yep i can see ya point

[Storm Struck]

Looks like there will be inland heat showers possibly thundery for a time in the late afternoon/evening, otherwise will be a nice day all around i think something all of us need after the year we have had.