Subtropical Low - Dec 29 2011 - Jan 1 2012

[NZstorm]

The Auckland cb has drifted south to be over west Waikato.

Hopefully another cell can fire up over NW Auckland.

[bmo]

We have shiwers than sime scorging hot sun than some showers and then some very not sun again temo goes up to 24°c each time in the sun

[spwill]

Skies starting clear, this Cb developing to the Nw of Ak

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

John i am in kaiteriteri. Still moderately raining. Surface water all over camp ground.

[Manukau heads obs]

rain off and on here , no sun
8mm since 9am, now at 241mm for the month, thats a winter month total

[GraemeWi]

Quite an anvil off the cb to the NW of Auckland, lets hope it produces. Looking quite dark under it

[Tornado Tim]

well it has finally cleared out a bit here, 24°C atm. Cumulus Congestus around but no cb's.
Update: I take that back,CB Incus just to the east me.... very very fast updrafts....

[Tornado Tim]

Distant Thunder now.......

[Manukau heads obs]

your CB from here Tim

[NZstorm]

Still some convection firing out to W/NW of Auckland this evening. This photo taken in about 20mins ago.

Lots of low clouds around Auckland but finer skies in the west.

[Tornado Tim]

Very Nice shot Steven, a very nice cell has developed in the Pacific around 360K just off Great Exhibition Bay Northland.
Boltek is picking up frequent CG's from it and the Radar has picked up on it well.

[Manukau heads obs]

I am picking up that one too

[NZstorm]

Some juicy air over the central North Island today. 7am Taupo dp is 18C. Looking like the wider Taupo region is where the best convection will be today. Localised heavy falls likely.

[Manukau heads obs]

NW wind change here now and skies are clearing slowly

[Tornado Tim]

Wow, not often when MS issues a High risk of severe storms.....

The central North Island is expected to become very unstable this afternoon as the low to the west moves onto the area and warm humid conditions persist.

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected about the central North Island from Waikato, inland Bay of Plenty and Gisborne down to inland Taranaki, Taihape and inland Hawkes Bay. A lower risk extends from Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula to inland Wanganui and northern Manawatu, as indicated on the chart.

Heavy rain will accompany these thunderstorms and there is now considered a moderate to high risk of severe thunderstorms with localised downpours over central parts of the North Island. These areas include southern Waikato,Waitomo,Taumarunui, northern inland parts of Taranaki, Taihape, Taupo and inland Hawkes Bay, where rainfall rates of 25 to 50mm per hour are possible.Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding,possible slips, and make driving conditions hazardous.

In the South Island, there is a low risk of one or two thunderstorms about the MacKenzie Country and inland northern Otago during the early evening as well as about the Nelson Lakes area, as indicated on the chart.

No other thunderstorms are expected.

[tgsnoopy]

Hmm, Batteries on charge

[spwill]

With all the cloud cover today will there be much to see ? I think the clear sunny days with the lower Thunderstorm risk are better chase days.
As always I will keep a watch on today .

[NZstorm]

I agree with spwill, may not be so good for chasing with a lot of scud and precip. Could be a lot of lightning though.

[Manukau heads obs]

the sat pic does show brigther conditions with the NW change moving now into the waikato
and a bit of morning heating and the cloud should lift a bit...
so could be on....

[NZstorm]

Hopefully the cloud will burn back and we get a nice day in Auckland to start the year. Could top 25C today with some sun.

The moisture convergence for storms is a long way south of Auckland, I see zero chance of anything near here.

[Tornado Tim]

Yes I agree to some that the cloud will be limiting factor today, as it was yesterday but that was kind of expected to limit the lapse rates.

WV image shows more incoming moisture with a NE flowing into the mid NI, ideally we want the cloud to clear before 12PM but if it comes down to it no later then 3 PM (since daylight goes to 8.30 - 9 PM now).

I hope it does but I probably wont hold my breath.

[Tornado Tim]

The Metservice Severe Thunderstorm Watch and outlook do not match:
The outlook severe thunderstorm risk is more east, in the watch its more west, i dont get it.

[NZstorm]

The Metservice Severe Thunderstorm Watch and outlook do not match:
The outlook severe thunderstorm risk is more east, in the watch its more west, i dont get it.

Theres an area of heavy precip over Waitomo currently.

[Tornado Tim]

Theres an area of heavy precip over Waitomo currently.

but they wouldnt have known that when it was issued at 9 AM.

The two should essentially match, because it means one is incorrect.

[ricky]

Great explosion of lightning activity in the last 45mins over the central NI!