South Island Storms 10th - 15th January

[03Stormchaser]

I'm glad I've checked the models before MS changed their forecast this morning, I couldn't quite understand why only a low risk south of Ashburton.
Anyway I reckon it's worth going out after lunch, worst case scenario I can enjoy a beautiful day out in the country.

I would probably go out later, looks coastal, negative Li's again, good cape later on in the evening. At least we have clear skies, but maybe this NW is a killer? Currently in Templeton its 24.1°C with Dew Point 7.7°C

[mikestormchaser]

...Visually an elevated storm would most likely look like a rainy mess. If you can see a base it would be flat and featureless.

Funny u say that, the storm i saw thursday night just before it was getting to the stage i couldnt see it due to light, it had the precipitation look about it, not a flat base of other storm types, definately a rainy mess

[Lacertae]

I would probably go out later, looks coastal, negative Li's again, good cape later on in the evening. At least we have clear skies, but maybe this NW is a killer? Currently in Templeton its 24.1°C with Dew Point 7.7°C

I don't know what to do with my day anyway ...

[Lacertae]

Low risk for tomorrow according to MS, I won't miss today's opportunity ! So out to Mount Somers after a quick sleep.

[03Stormchaser]

Low risk for tomorrow according to MS, I won't miss today's opportunity ! So out to Mount Somers after a quick sleep.

Mt Somers will most likely be to far inland, but I guess you can still see whats going on closer to the coast

[Thunder]

Thanks for the pics Richard.

Tim wrote

You need to look at the elevation scans of the radar to determine if the storm was actually elevated or not. Something we do not have access to. (unless you can see it of course)

I think the best approach for deciding on elevated storms is looking at the overall synoptic pattern and knowing whats possible/likely.

Visually an elevated storm would most likely look like a rainy mess. If you can see a base it would be flat and featureless.

Cool, I was gonna ask you guys what an elevated storm looks like as I wasn't sure. I was sort've thinking all day that there was unstable air in the upper levels but the surface stuff just couldn't connect to it and needed something else. I understand that it would've formed over the ranges then spread onto the coast, there had been big Cu cloud on the ranges for alot of the day, so why did it happen then? Stronger convergence at that time enough to get it over the cap?

Thanks for the photos Richard, now to set you up to do night time lightning photography. hehe

As for today and tomorrow's chances. I would have thought tomorrow looked a bit better but either way I'm working both days 4.30 till 8.30. Looking at the models the chances that are there they might come through just after 8.30pm anyway so I might be allright. I remember steve when it was quite NW'erly (might've been early last year or earlier this summer) and a heavy line of showers developed mt somers way then moved quickly on an angle towards the coast, still would be better to stick near the coast I think.

[Lacertae]

I guess I should have said from Rakaia I will drive towards Mt Somers, but as for Thursday I constantly adjust depending on what I see on the way. See you guys there may be ?

[mikestormchaser]

I wont be taking the route to mt somers, to far inland and for what a set up, would be more so on the coast anyways.
Im picking probably from rakia southwards would be the spots, dunsandle for a starting point anyway for me, we will see how things shape up tonight, i like the night chases!

[trickytiger]

i'm going to be in chch tonight, if anything looks like it might be good may go on a bit of a chase myself.

[Storm Struck]

Looks like a reasonable set up south of about Ashburton but a risk none the less, i can see in the models a weakoning of winds over south canterbury later on as the low centre sits closish by off Oamaru.
Even so now the westerly is slowing down not as gusty as it was this morning in north canterbury.
Tomorrow's chances do come quite late in the day as a trough comes up the coast possibly not until around 10pm though, just a question on whether anything is still active by that stage.
A small shower popped up before near Oamaru which could be an indication of development down there already.

[snowstormwatcher]

Looks like a good Cell near Geraldine at the moment, Looks dark east of here.
21 degrees currently with mod-strong northwesterly.

[03Stormchaser]

Looks like a good Cell near Geraldine at the moment, Looks dark east of here.
21 degrees currently with mod-strong northwesterly.

It did look good, think Lacertae got some photos. Im sitting just north of the rangitata atm
not much around but there is a cb moving off the alps.
Very Windy almost a direct Westerly

[Lacertae]

Yeah that cell out Geraldine was cool. Not exceptionnal but photogenic and much better than the complete nothingness I chased on Thursday ...

So first thing first, does anybody know if horseshoe vortices are likely to happen over the Canterbury Plains ? I caught this "look alike" over Mount Hutt Range in the early afternoon, it lasted a couple of minutes and dissolved without loosing its shape. Was it, or was it not ?

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Then I waited for quite some time between Arundel and Mayfield in order to stay in the sun, then showers developped and may be even hail (unfortunately one of my shot doesn't show it clearly).

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Meanwhile, a bit further north ...

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[Lacertae]

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[Twizel Dave]

Hello all. Good ness it was cold last night and this morning there is quite a bit of new snow along the tops.

[03Stormchaser]

Photo yesterday looking toward Geraldine as the clouds were dying.

storm.jpg

[Chris Raine]

Thunderstorm at Oamaru just before 8 pm . Lights flickered during a shower shot outside and a few seconds later a decent clap of thunder to the north of Oamaru town

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. I see some red blips on the radar. Sadly the new Canterbury radar coverage dosen't show Oamaru
The next radar should be installed somewhere on the Otago Peninsula to cover that gap, sorry off topic here.

[03Stormchaser]

Tracker is going nuts! Although hasnt plotted them quiet right should be just off Timaru

tracker_955pm.jpg

http://skywatcher.net.nz/

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah radar shows some white specs on it too!

[mikestormchaser]

impressive clips of the rain radar for sure, definate area of white in there, seems it might be going more onshore now, may just brush past BP if anything. on the roof atm watching the flashes.

[03Stormchaser]

Does seem to be weakening on the radar. Had crossed my mind to head out, but seeing as Ive done about 1600km this week maybe not...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It must of died now as not picking up any sferics on the radio.
Mike. Up on the roof, eh. Good one yer mate. Keeping up the good old NZ Thunderstorm Soc tradition

[mikestormchaser]

coming onshore.. might be something to look out on

[03Stormchaser]

Flashes can been seen from chch now out toward Bp