South Island Storms 10th - 15th January

[snowstormwatcher]

Few rumbles of Thunder here now coming from a storm just NW of here.

[Storm Struck]

A reasonable Convergence went up near Oxford from mid morning almost in a line following the waimak river, i do wonder if this land feature helped to channel and swirl winds up the river bed so as to create a form of converging winds.
Much stronger TCU very simular to what Steve posted above which popped up around 5pm looking towards Mt Thomas area, i tried to cut down some side roads on the way home to get a photo on my phone but there was too much broken mid level in front of it.
Pitty this low cloud has rolled in cant see much from home , it has been a very warm day though.

[snowstormwatcher]

Thunder here every few seconds now, Cant see any lightning as the low cloud has just rolled in.

[03Stormchaser]

Thunder here every few seconds now, Cant see any lightning as the low cloud has just rolled in.

Hope your taking some photos!

[snowstormwatcher]

Thunder here every few seconds now, Cant see any lightning as the low cloud has just rolled in.

Hope your taking some photos!

Nothing much to take photos of. low and middle level cloud have obsucured the view of the storm structure.

Mod/heavy rain here now.

[Thunder]

Maybe with low cloud photos would be no good. Today did look more marginal compared to yesterday but saw some nice big cumulus congestus clouds which was good, got some nice photographs.

As I've noted to Steve I'm interested in tomorrow, high cloud might be a worry but if it's just thin wispy type high cloud then maybe it might be ok. I mean, what's that I'm seeing just of the coast tomorrow at 4pm, -4 li's?? And cape around 6 or 700. Shear looks resonable with some turning with height, don't have time to do sweat figures and all that but maybe tornado / funnel possibilities are there if storms form. The gliding model is showing a southerly and northeasterly clashing in the middle of a small low in the afternoon. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, it could be an all or nothing day.

Cheers, Aaron

[Lacertae]

Not the kind of setup I've been chasing so far, not sure where to go after lunch tomorrow ... models looking interesting after 15:00 but confusing me more than anything in the end.
Oh well, ye old little finger will give me a direction !

[03Stormchaser]

Still have storms going off in the south, probably should have gone south. Just I was thinking they would be more Central Otago than were they are. Aaron and I did in the end here about 3 rolls of thunder just out of Sheffield round 5pm from memory.

Another quick look over tomorrows setup, still looks like the best day out of the last few (will be the 3rd thunder day in a row for Canterbury), CAPE topping 650, Li's of -5 which just screams insane, this morning this was around -3 so I guess the next model run will confirm this. Upper air isn't overly cold but then neither was today and look what we have down south. What isn't looking good is high cloud, if this breaks up enough we could be all on for an awesome day, on the other hand it could totally kill everything. Heading out by noon with Aaron, should see things fire about mid afternoon all going to plan, any where from about Fairlie to Ashburton at this stage.

[Twizel Dave]

Good evening all. What a spectacular lightning show that was! The fireworks started around 9.30 pm and put on a fine display. It has passed over us towards Omarama and Cromwell and probably the east coast but I can still see the enormous flashes.

[Thunder]

Yes Steve tomorrow could be interesting, will just have to see how it goes. Could be very good should things fire, and I'm still thinking funnel / tornado possibilities are there (area of focus anywhere south of the Peninsula on the plains through to Temuka). It may not happen even if storms are there but it's more likely I'd say then other days for sure. Atleast we both have the day off so no limitations which is cool. Should be good surface dewpoints. I'd laugh if there was a whole heap of low scraggly cloud about tomorrow on the plains and nothing happened, what else could you do? But I think it should be fine in that regard.

Took a few photos today of course, nice to see some big Cu but not enough omph there. South of Fairly looked to produce the goods, would've been awesome Twizel Dave with that night time lightning. What a show it would've been!

[mikestormchaser]

I cant decide wehther i Should of tried to get day off, hmm i think ill go to work as its just easier that way.. and chase if things fire and leave work at the earliest time i can witch would be 3 30.
Keep me posted boys

[NZstorm]

yes, looking potentially good if you can get enough heating across those inland hills where the convergence looks to be. Hopefully the high cloud doesn't thicken up too much for you guys. Some decent instability numbers/reasonable upper flow could produce a localised severe hail storm.

[Razor]

Had a shower though here this morning in town already, large drops. Looks to be a reasonable cell or two playing around between here and Amberley

[NZstorm]

Had a shower though here this morning in town already, large drops. Looks to be a reasonable cell or two playing around between here and Amberley

Will be elevated showers.

[TonyT]

Been raining steadily for 40 mins here, blue patches all around but a solid messy cloudmass directly above.

[Thunder]

Mabye it's time to laugh, an't nothing gonna happen on the plains unless this low cloud clears. Still, early days..... Model has pulled back a we bit on figures. They seem to oscillate backwards and forwards between each run slowly narrowing down to a final forecast, maybe the 18z run will look slightly better again.

[03Stormchaser]

I see metservice going with high risk today

[Razor]

Low cloud is clearing rapidly here in ChCh city so the heat is coming....

[03Stormchaser]

Hmm I dont think the latest run looks that bad Aaron, has pegged back a little but still very positive! I guess the next run will give us a better idea, crazy cape in Southland this afternoon! btw suns out

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Low cloud here and I cant see any blue sky when looking out in all 4 directions at the moment. Hopefully she clears soon out this way too!

[Razor]

Low cloud here and I cant see any blue sky when looking out in all 4 directions at the moment. Hopefully she clears soon out this way too!

Suns been out here for over an hour here in town blue dome stuff to the east and south apart from some scrappy high cloud

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Blue sky here now! Going to be a nice day ahead by the looks

[snowstormwatcher]

Low cloud here and theres no sign of it clearing anytime soon so not much chance of storms here today.

Heard of a report of 15mm in 1 hour near Kimbell from yesterdays storm. Only 3mm here but all that fell 5mins.

[Razor]

Low cloud coming back in. Yesterday seemd a better set up round Canterbury

[03Stormchaser]

Sitting not far from the Rakaia gorge, Cb over the foothills atm
Low cloud has cleared atm, sunny temp back up to 22C