Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12-13th Jan.

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Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12-13th Jan.

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like theres going to be plenty of lightning out to the west of the country tonight, it could well affect Taranaki as it moves SE.

Also, I'm wondering about the possibility of elevated storms with that warm front crossing Northland this evening.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Morning all, fantastic morning here, although rather warm at 8 AM....
Yes this front will very interesting coming this arvo.
Current Sat Pic with GPATS Lightning Overlay:

Courtesy of Weatherzone AU
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by NZstorm »

500mb chart for midnight. Upper ridge over the north will steer Tasman Sea convection SE away from Auckland. Notice the contrast in upper level temperatures between Auckland-9C, New Plymouth-17C.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I see that M/S has put a Mod risk for severe thunderstorms in the mid coastal region of the NI which carries the potential for a damaging tornado.
New Plymouth would be the hotspot I would imagine....

Id expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued this afternoon.

I have attached the 12 Z sounding from WP, very strong upper level winds going on atm..
It seems any storms in the coastal regions will be quite fast moving..
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Rogue »

Hi, does anyone know of any online webcams located near the areas likely to be affected by this system? Cheers.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Rogue wrote:Hi, does anyone know of any online webcams located near the areas likely to be affected by this system? Cheers.
Niwa's Raglan Webcams might be good, although they are 2/3 ground: http://www.niwa.co.nz/cam-era/raglan

Seas looks rather choppy......
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like there is some evevated convection occuring just off the coast here on dark
getting spits of rain here
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Michael »

Looks tomorrow morning could be rough in some west facing areas though like taranaki,maybe even down to kapiti.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by David »

No thunder here but just got woken by very heavy shower, heaviest I've heard for a while. Max rain rate of 110 mm/hr showing on the weather station...
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by jamie »

HOOOOLLLLYYYYY!!!

This is the best storm ive ever had here by far!
225mm/h with gust of 67km/h at same time. THe wind sounded waaay stronger than that though, must have been the rain making it sound stronger
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yes good squall line hitting now :)
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by jamie »

So that dropped like 13mm in about 10mins. Just beat a 2008 rain rate record by over 10mm/h.

Have not had a night time squall like this since jan or feb 03 or 04 when the big floods were.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

not as heavy as that here, but still woke me up, with 50 knot gusts and 7mm in a short period
great test for the replacement wind turbine from canada we just put in yesterday!
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by jamie »

Lost a tree last night and also 1/4 of my giant pumpkin plant. Might have said goodby to my chances of winning biggest pumpkin this year.

the tree also fell ontop of a parked up digger which is no good
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I would suggest that heavy rain like that sort of adds force to the wind behind it for trees
plus the ground is relatively wet
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by BeaconHill »

Woke at just on 3am to a distant roll of thunder to the north east of Wellington. Looking at Trevor McGavin's site in Lower Hutt, he detected a significant number of strikes around 2-3am

http://mcgavin.no-ip.info/weather/lower ... um_day.png

Have not heard anyone else mentioning the thunder and lightning though. Maybe it passed though north of the Hutt?

Would be great to have access to the data from MetService to be able to see the track of the storm, both after the fact, and ideally in real time. We can only but dream it might happen one day!
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

BeaconHill wrote:Woke at just on 3am to a distant roll of thunder to the north east of Wellington. Looking at Trevor McGavin's site in Lower Hutt, he detected a significant number of strikes around 2-3am
Yes Lightning did well increase on the squall line down further south around 2 AM but rapidly disintegrated when it hit land. Does look like it was north of the Hutt, seems that oregraphic lifting might have played a fact in squeezing out the last bit of lightning due to extra forcing there.
Reference: Weatherzone Satellite with GPATS Lightning Overlay:
2AM Sat Image, 13th Jan, 2012.jpg
3AM Sat Image, 13th Jan, 2012.jpg
BeaconHill wrote: Would be great to have access to the data from MetService to be able to see the track of the storm, both after the fact, and ideally in real time. We can only but dream it might happen one day!
Keep an eye out on the new network me and Ricky are making via Blitzortung, we wouldn't mind a person from Wellington joining ;)
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by GreggWard »

Tornado Tim wrote: ... seems that oregraphic lifting might have played a fact in squeezing out the last bit of lightning due to extra forcing there.
Just had some heavy showers pass through Palmy and a thunderstorm that developed to the SE, with five claps of thunder heard. This thunderstorm only seemed to start firing as the band of showers were being lifted across the Tararua ranges, which ties in with what Tim was saying earlier.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by jamie »

If this front hit the north island at peak day time heating then wow it would have been a cracker.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12 Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

T-storm Warning for Kapiti Coast:
issued by MetService at 05:10 pm Friday 13 January 2012.
Valid until 06:00 pm Friday 13 January 2012.
This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
KAPITI COAST, UPPER HUTT CITY, PORIRUA CITY and SOUTH WAIRARAPA.
At 05:00 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near OFFSHORE KAPITI COAST.
These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast, and are expected to lie near UPPER HUTT and KAITOKE at 05:30 pm and near THE AORANGI MOUNTAINS, TUTURUMURI and RUAKOKOPUTUNA at 06:00 pm.
These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.
Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.
Very strong wind gusts can break branches from trees, damage roofing, and make driving hazardous especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for KAPITI-HOROWHENUA, MANAWATU, TARANAKI and WANGANUI.
Courtesy of M/S

Not very lightning active but oh well its what M/S considers to be a severe thunderstorm.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12-13th Jan.

Unread post by Weather Watcher »

Lots of thunder and lightning here in Upper Hutt with that cell.
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Re: Front, Lightning possibilities West NI/SI, 12-13th Jan.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The sferics emitted must be pritty weak then.....
Detectors around NZ arnt picking up too much down that way.
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