Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Tornado Tim
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Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Looks like the Low that centered just off the coast of Victoria, Australia will travel south and join up with a low in the Southern Ocean.
This is expected to become a more broad trough of low pressure as it gets closer to New Zealand with a Cold front expected to hit the SW of South Island. The Northern tip of the Cold front is expected to become more active over the central Tasman as SFC Sea temps are expected to be warmer.
As the trough of low pressure approaches the West Coast of the South Island it is expected to redevelop in to more of a low of sorts and cross the midriff of NZ.
There is a possibility of storms for parts of the west coast of the NI on the 12th as a pool of colder air contained on the NW sector of the Low moves further east towards land. A low risk at this stage for Waikato for an evening storm, possibly a moderate risk on the coast as showers/storms form over sea and move onshore in a westerly flow.
Will have to see how the models firm this up later on.
This is expected to become a more broad trough of low pressure as it gets closer to New Zealand with a Cold front expected to hit the SW of South Island. The Northern tip of the Cold front is expected to become more active over the central Tasman as SFC Sea temps are expected to be warmer.
As the trough of low pressure approaches the West Coast of the South Island it is expected to redevelop in to more of a low of sorts and cross the midriff of NZ.
There is a possibility of storms for parts of the west coast of the NI on the 12th as a pool of colder air contained on the NW sector of the Low moves further east towards land. A low risk at this stage for Waikato for an evening storm, possibly a moderate risk on the coast as showers/storms form over sea and move onshore in a westerly flow.
Will have to see how the models firm this up later on.
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- NZstorm
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Also a thunder risk Sunday evening from Taranaki to upper South Island associated with the front/warm sector moisture. Could be also be a risk over Northland/Auckland Sunday pm but its a long shot atm. See how it looks tomorrow.
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Looks better with atleast isolated thunderstorms possible from Northland to western Waikato Sunday afternoon. We need some daytime heating. The dewpoints will be in the 18-20C range. There will be mid level cloud though.Could be also be a risk over Northland/Auckland Sunday pm but its a long shot atm. See how it looks tomorrow.
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Yes that is certainly the case as the upper air isnt very cold at all, -10 to -12°C. GFS has now brung in more moisture onshore bringing up the SFC CAPE.NZstorm wrote: isolated thunderstorms possible from Northland to western Waikato Sunday afternoon. We need some daytime heating.
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- David
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Metservice have a moderate thunderstorm risk for Northland Auckland & Coromandel tonight.
A cloudy humid day here so far with 95% humidity
A cloudy humid day here so far with 95% humidity
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
looking better now to the NW on the rain radar and I have picked up a few strikes too now from there
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Re: Possible Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
The main shower line to west is looking better now.
Dewpoint above 19C here.
Dewpoint above 19C here.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
21.8mm of rain fell here with passage of the front overnight, not bad
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- Nev
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
This is windier than the saturday before last here,the wind hasnt stopped whistling since 11am.At least then it was sunnier.
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
I recorded a peak gust of 62 km/h at 6.34pm, which is the same max gust I had from the recent weather bombMichael wrote:This is windier than the saturday before last here,the wind hasnt stopped whistling since 11am.At least then it was sunnier.
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Our windows are buckling and banging going on from the tree.Last week we had more isobars over us when east or SE and they kept telling us strong winds for 3 days,we lucky if we got a gust on 1 occasion 1/2 this speed today.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Just checked the rain rate figures last night, got very heavy at one stage around 1 AM.
From 00:57 to 01:07 (10 min accumulation time) 7.8mm of rain fell.
From 00:57 to 01:07 (10 min accumulation time) 7.8mm of rain fell.
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- Nev
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Just for the record though, most places around Akld generally recorded peak gusts on Monday evening about 2/3's lower than those (mainly westerlies) on Mar 3 - most notably, Brian's 115 km/h gusts early that Saturday morn versus 69 km/h on Monday. Below are a few more 'official' readings...on Monday David wrote:I recorded a peak gust of 62 km/h at 6.34pm, which is the same max gust I had from the recent weather bombMichael wrote:This is windier than the saturday before last here,the wind hasnt stopped whistling since 11am.At least then it was sunnier.
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Akld max gusts (km/h) c/o NIWA - 24 hours to midnight.
Site Mar 3 Mar 12
Warkworth 84 63
Whangaparaoa 98 63
Albany 70 43
Whenuapai 80 50
Musick Pt 101 78
Lincoln Rd 76 53
Penrose 59 53
Pakuranga 56 47
Mangere 85 62
Auckland Aero 85 58
Pukekohe 62 51
Ardmore 81 54
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
note that westerlies funnel big time here (same at the signal station)...SW I am not much windier than elsewhere
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Re: Low Pressure system 11-12th March, 2012
Thanks Nev - looks like my readings were an exception then