NZ Weather Forum

Since a lots happening in april,the start will be a wet one in the north and some eastern areas but the westcoast and south of Wanganui look the places to be in early april including easter.

Hopefully we catch some warm air next week and don't end up in the cold flow around the High.

We actually havent had a cyclonic NE in sometime,its been southerly when wet of late.

spwill wrote:Hopefully we catch some warm air next week and don't end up in the cold flow around the High.

GFS seems to like the high keeping much of the activity north of NZ at the moment with a strong high over the South. The track though seems to be towards the North Island so will be very interesting to see if that high just weakens a little.

Looking forward to sun and fun in the south island, yet again

The gfs is all over the place, I would ignore it.

Looking like a tropical low pressure system moves to the area NE of NZ by Tuesday with a SE flow strengthening over the NI. Looking like Gisborne is the region that will be in the firing line for the heaviest precip mid week. Maybe the top of Northland too. But have to see how the models shape up.

Razor wrote:Looking forward to sun and fun in the south island, yet again

Do give us a daily weather report from Christchurch next week

I see areas west of high ground and the deep south having the best weather next week .
Our wine industry must be in for a poor season this year , the main wine regions have had poor weather.

The temperature has risen 5.2°C here in the last hour, that must be one of the fastest morning climbs I have seen on my weather station. A lovely sunny morning

spwill wrote:

Razor wrote:Looking forward to sun and fun in the south island, yet again

Do give us a daily weather report from Christchurch next week

I see areas west of high ground and the deep south having the best weather next week .
Our wine industry must be in for a poor season this year , the main wine regions have had poor weather.

Wairarapa and Marlborough, along with Wellington, have had an exceptionally cloudy summer, and March is again below normal sunshine levels, though not as drastically so as in February. A recent story in our local paper carried comments that it was the poorest wine season around Martinborough since 1992.

NZstorm wrote:The gfs is all over the place, I would ignore it.

Yes, I havent seen such variance in the GFS for a long time, especially as it has got closer to the event. ECMWF as we know has picked these events more accurately from long range and GFS tends to be beneficial from closer to the event. Thought some consistancy was popping up with the last 2 runs when it showed a large high to the south trapping the activity further north but this morning its flopped back to the low affecting the North Island and upper south potentially later next week. Very complex situation anyhow. Metservice has downgraded forecasts from yesterday for the North from heavy falls of rain to showers, however, the models suggest they should be pumping it up. Anyways maybe we will see some agreement over the next 24 hours. Watching with anticipation!

RWood wrote: Wairarapa and Marlborough, along with Wellington, have had an exceptionally cloudy summer, and March is again below normal sunshine levels, though not as drastically so as in February. A recent story in our local paper carried comments that it was the poorest wine season around Martinborough since 1992.

Depending on the path of this low pressure system you could score a good week out of it as long as it takes a more western route and be slow moving unlike the others and went east and spread southerlies instead of a NE flow.

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote: Very complex situation anyhow. Metservice has downgraded forecasts from yesterday for the North from heavy falls of rain to showers, however, the models suggest they should be pumping it up. Anyways maybe we will see some agreement over the next 24 hours. Watching with anticipation!

I noticed that too, the metservice 7 day model looks as 'mean' as it ever has for this system. Will have to see what MS are thinking in their severe weather outlook this afternoon...

Michael wrote:

RWood wrote: Wairarapa and Marlborough, along with Wellington, have had an exceptionally cloudy summer, and March is again below normal sunshine levels, though not as drastically so as in February. A recent story in our local paper carried comments that it was the poorest wine season around Martinborough since 1992.

Depending on the path of this low pressure system you could score a good week out of it as long as it takes a more western route and be slow moving unlike the others and went east and spread southerlies instead of a NE flow.

I hope so. This has been the "poorest" La Nina for us locally for a very long time.

spwill wrote: Our wine industry must be in for a poor season this year , the main wine regions have had poor weather.

Yes so poor in fact that two of my local vineyards are leaving 100% of there fruit on the plants for the birds

GFS now has shifted the low back further north east with the high to the south so being a day or two away perhaps this isnt gonna be much afterall. See what noon run says!

Looks like a warm wet Easter for us in the North, there will be some dry spells also, might even get a fine day Sunday or Monday.

Lovely mild day here in ChCh. Models look to have backed off a bit too, only the north of the NI should have a wet easter on latest GFS, all good for the majority of the country hopefully

Razor wrote: Models look to have backed off a bit too, only the north of the NI should have a wet easter on latest GFS, all good for the majority of the country hopefully

A few showers for the north over Easter but warm. I think the worst Easter weather will be down the east side of the country where cloud cover meets cool air and perhaps some South Island inland valleys where fog/low cloud lingers


Partly cloudy for Auckland 22C

Only the north have a wet easter Nice to be watching .

Razor wrote:Lovely mild day here in ChCh. Models look to have backed off a bit too, only the north of the NI should have a wet easter on latest GFS, all good for the majority of the country hopefully

Looks like a warm front moves in Tuesday with widespread rain in the north, the rain possibly lingering on Wednesday but see what the next EU run says.

Easter looks fine atm. Fingers crossed.

Nice day here today with little wind and plenty of sunshine. Good way to start the month.

Very pleasant in Auckland today also, though a little overcast at times. Not home most of the day so unable to report on station stats, but it was great to see the relocated anemometer spinning away merrily on the exposed side of the house. Wind direction probably won't be accurate with it swirling around the house, but at least now I'll have a chance of recording gust speeds when the low comes through this week.

The run of great weather continues here, hearing the waves crash on Rapahoe beach early this morning caused me to flashback to my youth & back to Adelaide.. very serene. Temp is dropping quick so expecting a chilly start to the morning.

Dreary morning here. Sky is virtually flat grey from horizon to horizon, apart from a sliver of blue to the South of me. Barometer at 1015 and dropping, temp 17.9, humidity 79%, wind from the South East at around 6 km/h in our sheltered little nook, although I see it's 28km over at Auckland airport. There's some spotty drizzle.

Instruments are cleaned and ready for the low moving in tomorrow.

the sat image animation does show that the area of greatest energy is just to the NE of the NI
and so a more SE flow should persist, instead of a more east or NE flow
M/S have flip flopped on which way its going to shape 2x now, latest is to go with a more SE flow for the week
(yesterday was for the flow to tend NE later in the week)
but thats the name of the game