El Nino Spring

[NZstorm]

Looks like we'll have weak El Nino conditions in the coming months.

Should be good for snow on the ski fields.

[Thunder]

Good news, a thundery spring come September / October? Here's hoping

Cheers
Aaron

[spwill]

More cold air than usual flowing onto the Tasman Sea ? hopefully a thundery Winter on the way as well.

[Thunder]

Yes indeed Simon, look forward to it although might mean I have to travel to the West Coast

[tgsnoopy]

I was just thinking with the conditions lately that'd I regret sending my lightning trigger to a friend to trial in the US. She has the same one and commented it had the same insensitivities mine had originally. She can find out if my modified one works better and if she prefers it hang on to it and send her one back which I'll then modify for myself. It would be logical that'd I loan it out and then need it, long may it keep up

[NZstorm]

Chart indicates we are moving into El Nino.

The weather trend for spring should be cloudy and wetter than normal in the west, warmer and dry for eastern regions.

[Michael]

Ccould be,1982 i remember was a sunny winter,but again I was in Wanganui at the time and spent a month in Wellington in that winter and was quite a sunny winter I recall and it didnt really pack up till december proper.

[Michael]

The last 10 days while we had the low near the country,Norfolk Islands experiencing our "October weather" giving a clue what "we will be in for" in the spring,such ranges as 13-14 minima and 17-18 maxima and persistent SW.

[Manukau heads obs]

amazing to see such warm water off the north coast of Alaska
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... obal&c=sst

[Richard]

amazing to see such warm water off the north coast of Alaska
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... obal&c=sst

Yer i'll say,must be a very shallow area of ocean there with little water movement.

[Orion]

Good news, a thundery spring come September / October? Here's hoping

Cheers
Aaron

Good forecast

[Storm Struck]

I was hoping our next chance would be Sunday but it looks to have gone from the models now , maybe something on Tuesday.

Yeah bring on El Nino, i remember the stint between 1995-2004 where we had really good storm seasons (not sure if that was an El Nino stint though), sometimes at xmas/new year 4-5 days in a row of thunderstorms typical southerly busters.
If we can get those then there should be some juicy reports for the website.

[spwill]

I see Niwa are suggesting weaker westerly pattern than normal for an El Nino Spring. http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/sco/seaso ... ember-2012
The westerly pattern is certainly active at the moment.


I think there should be a better than normal Tstorm season in Canterbury and perhaps up this way.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes the SOI is in the negative, with no positive likely, at the monent.
I was quite annoyed last year when the La Nina said it was coming back again
Made for a useless summer after we were plagued by the earthquakes earlier in the year.
Bring on El Nino

[Thunder]

Good news, a thundery spring come September / October? Here's hoping

Cheers
Aaron

Good forecast

Maybe, or luck! . It did feel like we are due for a thunderstormy season though.

Could still be a chance Sunday Jase and even Tuesday next week too, arghhh....

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes the SOI is in the negative, with no positive likely, at the monent.
I was quite annoyed last year when the La Nina said it was coming back again
Made for a useless summer after we were plagued by the earthquakes earlier in the year.
Bring on El Nino

Sadly, the SOI has gone to neutral, so it's not going to be either a La Nina or El Nino this summer.
So everything is going to be 'normal' or a mixture of both expectations?

[Tornado Tim]

Remember that the NINO3.4 Index is still positive by a fair margin, which means the Sea SFC temps are now in a more El Nino state.
I wouldnt rule out a El Nino Event just yet.....