NZ Weather Forum

This is a long way out but models seem to be showing some very cold air coming up from very far south into the later days of next week, with a large high dragging it all northwards. What do we think about the potential for snow to some very low levels?? Looks promising

note that it starts off as SWer
and that it originates as a warm NWer from south of OZ
will be good for the NI mountains when its first a disturbed SWer

looks normal for the time of year/weak el nino

Yes nothing exciting looking about this. Certainly far to WSW for Canterbury to get much moisture also.

its also not just the fact that the ridge will be providing a South flow,....but its the length of time that has been like that to bring the cold air north...in this case, not much time

The GFS suggests snow for Queenstown to Gore early next week, see how this develops in the models over the next couple of days

Should really be waiting till its a bit more certain before starting a thread on any possible event given its still a week away yet,i think

I think this thread is fine, its good to see how things pan out and see who thinks what. Looks to get progressively colder each day next week, I'm meant to be away to Central Otago for work next week could be fun

Even looks like the North Island ski fields get snow as well next week.

It was good to miss the snow dump whilst we were away in Brit.
Don't really want another one at the moment, thankyou, as we adjust to the winter at the moment

no one is suggesting a snow dump like you had (which was a special warm advection event)

I might be in Central Otago early next week.
At this stage Tuesday has a wintry look to it.

Looks like the souths turn with a river of ice moving up the coast here.

spwill wrote:I might be in Central Otago early next week.
At this stage Tuesday has a wintry look to it.

Queenstown will have a white out!

Ruapehu will get its first decent snow of the season.

GFS 500mb temps show the coldest airmass of the winter so far. Tuesday midday.

Jeepers this keeps getting colder and colder.

This might be the smae image as NZstorm has already put up. Wouldnt want to be in southland with this one.

So, how much snow for places with this one coming?

snowykiwi wrote:So, how much snow for places with this one coming?

i would say it is more of a southland otago event. quite alot of snow in those areas i would think

The flow might be a bit westerly for much in the way of snowfall over the Dunedin region.
West Otago, Southland, Fiordland and South Otago in the firing line.

Certainly seems like a polar blast could be coming for the Southern end of the South Island.

Forecasts suggest a tight low pressure system quickly developing off the southwest to southern coasts.
Could potentially have some quite strong wind with it too, something to look out for due to wind chill factors.

GFS through at midnight has backed totals for Southland and Central Otago right off with an even more westerly flow and the low moving away to the east of the country, much shorter lived at this stage. See if it swings back.

M/S have put out gale values for the marine weather here for monday nite/tues already...

metservice are saying a bit of snow possible at low levels for Tuesday on the Canterbury plains forecast!

i see tuesday morning looks promising for a little snow in chch??

joliver657 wrote:i see tuesday morning looks promising for a little snow in chch??

What are you looking at? no chance of snow in chch.

It's changed again It was saying snow on metservice this morning!

Well, we have past the shortest day , so it should be cold for the last week of June.
The sun may shine, but the cold, cold SW wind will blow.
I think that grey cloud will be in the sky for much of the period, and some weak sun trying to penetrate through.