Cold Outbreak first week of July?

[CWUweather]

Thought a new thread was in order for this. weatherwatch has said its reasonably likely for snow in south island late next week. don't know where or how much yet so this could be interesting! what do we all think?

[Talbotm]

Too far out yet risky stuff from weather watch putting a statement like that out. Hope it happens tho i cant even find a model that will go out beyond 7days. Not sure where he found a model so far out?? any ideas??

[CWUweather]

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps this goes quite a long way out. saturday sunday next week look likley. on accuweather christchurch they have 13cm of snow for chch on sunday the 8th july

[CWUweather]

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps this goes quite a long way out. saturday sunday next week look likley. on accuweather christchurch they have 13cm of snow for chch on sunday the 8th july

yeh to me sunday the 8th looks the most likely looking at the rain and temp maps

[Storm Struck]

Just a note, its better to wait until 2-3 days out from an event as models can change alot a week or so out.
So save the new threads until we are all more sure its looking likly, having said that this one has been in the models for a few days now but its better to lay low until about Wednesday or Thursday then bring it up again.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah GFS isnt going for this at the moment.

[CWUweather]

looking at the Metvuw GFS. Early thursday morning right through to early friday morning next week look reasonably promising for some low level snow in chch and canterbury

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metvuw GFS is hardly showing anything

looking at the Metvuw GFS. Early thursday morning right through to early friday morning next week look reasonably promising for some low level snow in chch and canterbury

Not quite sure how your seeing this....Metvuw is not showing much precipitation and certainly not cold enough at this stage...GFS seems to be improving the forecast all the time.

[CWUweather]

Metvuw GFS is hardly showing anything

looking at the Metvuw GFS. Early thursday morning right through to early friday morning next week look reasonably promising for some low level snow in chch and canterbury

Not quite sure how your seeing this....Metvuw is not showing much precipitation and certainly not cold enough at this stage...GFS seems to be improving the forecast all the time.

Its changed they do all the time

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Its changed they do all the time

Precisely! GFS hasnt showed this for a couple of days now. Thats why it helps to just wait a little longer when making a thread until models start to agree and some consistency develops. This enhances confidence for the event.

[RWood]

Its changed they do all the time

Precisely! GFS hasnt showed this for a couple of days now. Thats why it helps to just wait a little longer when making a thread until models start to agree and some consistency develops. This enhances confidence for the event.

The cold and snow lovers seem to be obsessed - they can never wait. I would have though that after 12 consecutive months with near average or below average monthly means in the Ch'ch-plains regions, a bit of counterbalancing would be desirable!

[Razor]

Yes this thread has been too hasty. Can't see it myself.

[Talbotm]

Yea this thread was too early if it happens awesome. If it doesnt well it wont be good for weatherwatch as they probably should have waited till closer to the event before even putting it out there. Very immature of them really. I think 5 days out minimum not like 8 or further.