Heavy Rain & Sth'n Snow, Deep Tasman Low - Jul 29-Aug 3

[spwill]

Not looking overly cold over the South Island next week but I would say where heavy precipitation occurs inland snow will fall to quite low levels. At this stage the very cold air stays south of NZ.

[Razor]

Metservice has a snowflack over Queenstown for monday. Interesting, I'm working in Alexandra on Monday then on to Dunedin on Tuesday. Will report from the feild if anything interesting occurs....

[spwill]

I'm working in Alexandra on Monday then on to Dunedin on Tuesday. Will report from the feild if anything interesting occurs....

Take the Ranfurly/Middlemarch route to Dunedin, carry snow chains. I usually go this way, less traffic and better scenery.

[Talbotm]

How low do we think the snow will get around Canterbury Guys?? The metservice still dont seem to want to put heights for the snow level saying this could become a significant event?? What do you guys think??

[CWUweather]

How low do we think the snow will get around Canterbury Guys?? The metservice still dont seem to want to put heights for the snow level saying this could become a significant event?? What do you guys think??

Well.... their sever weather outlook say there is a low risk of heavy rain and heavy snow in all of canterbury. should be a higher risk of rain sooo... could get as low as where you are, maybe..... i would say maybe good falls above 500m. judging by forecasts and models at the present. we will se how it pans out over the next couple of days. certainly lots of precipitation, what it falls as is a mystery. will be very very cold tho

[snowstormwatcher]

I reckon snow to around 500-600m for Canterbury but it could fall lower in some inland valleys and basins.

[Talbotm]

well hope it gets lower snowstormwatcher. wouldnt mind another snow dump

[moylanr]

Blue Skies are forecasting 700 m mid week then 600 m. 500 m by the weekend.

[TonyT]

Blue Skies are forecasting 700 m mid week then 600 m. 500 m by the weekend.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Not looking as anywhere near as wet anymore.

[CWUweather]

Not looking as anywhere near as wet anymore.

Where you getting that from?? to me it is

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metvuw GFS. Still can change back buts its not looking anywhere near as significant this morning as has at times over last couple of days

[Richard]

yes i think its lots of that drizzly stuff spread over many days.

We still have a very misnamed thread here as there's no polar blast coming,and cold?,well its winter,its nearly always bloody cold

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah Im thinking mainly light rain and drizzle with plenty of dry periods as well. The usual non exciting stuff

[snowstormwatcher]

Still looks rather wet futher south, GFS has been pretty consistant showing around 50-60mm for this area.

[NZstorm]

Rainfall accumulated chart for the next 120hrs. Looks like very heavy precip west of the SI. A decent soaking also for the east of the SI.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Models are showing some consistancy now with the latest run backing up this mornings and being less than 3 days. As expected, Metservice have removed the heavy rain from the forecast for Canterbury.

[Storm Struck]

I would say its going to be light rain drizzle until about midday tuesday then it comes and goes with heavier falls until Thursday, but the majority bulk of the rain seems to be over South Canterbury.
Still 30-50mm is alot for a city still battling with the roads and sinking land isssues.

[CWUweather]

Weatherwatch.co.nz maps are showing heavy rain up most of the east coast of the south island all week! lots of rain by the looks of things. could get interesting with these south east winds too

[Dean.]

Eastern rivers are going to be running very high looking at this mornings GFS run.

[CWUweather]

Eastern rivers are going to be running very high looking at this mornings GFS run.

yeh i thought that. just worked out. about 200ml of rain in chch this week!

[Storm Struck]

Eastern rivers are going to be running very high looking at this mornings GFS run.

yeh i thought that. just worked out. about 200ml of rain in chch this week!

Nowhere near that much, the models are not an exact science especially with GFS and you have to take into affect of the topograpical features which will cut down that precipitation rate for the city.
The fact its going to be a strong S-SE flow means the peninnsula will shelter the city in parts bringing only lighter falls and heavier falls inland, weve seen this time and time again.
However that low is now slightly positioned further north than the last few days, so it seems the bulk of the rain will be directed from Timaru up to Kaikoura by Thursday.
Your looking at maybe 50mm for the city that in itself as i mentioned earlier is tough enough on the roads etc, south canterbury will get the bulk though.
It kinda looks like that low breaks up but remains stubborn and brings in further patch falls come the weekend.

[Manukau heads obs]

barometer dropping fast here now

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest GFS run just through shows Christchurch to be a little more in the firing line with a slight tracking further north. As Jason says expect to see heavier falls inland of the city due to the topography effect. Will be interesting to see the next one tonight as we are getting to less than 24hours away from the start of this event here. Looks like quite a strong easterly flow developing tomorrow afternoon with 980 low centre lying just off the west coast

[CWUweather]

i still reckon we in chch will get upwards of 150mm over the week