Heavy Rain & Sth'n Snow, Deep Tasman Low - Jul 29-Aug 3

[CWUweather]

Hi guys. still a few days out. but there has been talk of another cold possibly polar blast early next week. just want all your thoughts?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I doubt it, looking rather calm down there.
Possibly more active later in the year as the anticyclones moving across become weaker.

[spwill]

Models have been consistent for onshore flow/precipitation east coast South Island early next week, I think we will have a much better idea on how cold the flow will be in a day or two.

[NZstorm]

Both 00Z GFS and ECMRF suggest snow to low levels over Canterbury on Tuesday. Still a week away but interesting the 2 models agree.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just re-looking at the models,maybe cold but no significant event looking likely, at this stage.

[Storm Struck]

Fairly well ridged this system for next week, highs either side the one in the south Tasman sea seems to at the moment be in the right position for dragging cold air up from the ice caps.
Even if there isnt anything snow wise for snow fans in the city there will sure be a good dumping above 200m atleast, and some reasonable rainfall too maybe 50mm+.
So certainly something to keep watch on, been in the models the last 3-4 days now.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The overnight run was looking like very healthy precipitation but this mornings run just through has dropped off big time. See what the next couple bring.

[Richard]

Going to be about a 500m and higher snowfall event i reckon,thread's named wrong,should be something more like "prolonged eastern SI wet period"

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Going to be about a 500m and higher snowfall event i reckon,thread's named wrong,should be something more like "prolonged eastern SI wet period"

Couldn't agree more for the name of the thread Richard! I personally cannot see it getting any lower than 300m at its very lowest, even if it does change. Im thinking the potential is more for significant rainfall around the area.

[spwill]

thread's named wrong

Start a thread for the low system/rain.
There is very cold air lurking just south of NZ in the models so it is something to watch but the model trend has tended to keep the very cold air off NZ.

[snowykiwi]

Wouldn't surprise me if it's very cold the next two weeks. Everytime I change shifts I end up driving with the coldest weather Back to the thermals again. Will be interesting to see how much rain we get with this next weather event. I see metservice are saying heavy falls for Monday at this stage.

[CWUweather]

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... er-outlook

well...............

[snowykiwi]

I really do hope the situation changes, hopefully we'll just get a lot of rain. We really don't want another snow event this winter. Will be interesting to see how things shape up over the weekend as we get closer to the event. How are the models looking this evening?

[moylanr]

Hi all - I'm new to your forum and have an interest in next weeks forecasts as I work in power distribution in Christchurch.

I'm guessing the load on the power network wont be as high as 6th & 7th June as I think the discussion is indicating the weather wont lead to businesses & school closures.

I'd appreciate a heads up if any of you think there could be closures.

Thanks
Richard

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Re: my earlier posts, it looks likely to be a rainy event as we haven' t had much precipitation since that snow event in June that I missed. There will be snow around by the looks of it but not to sea level, if so not great hunks of it.
The ski-fields should get replemished

[Talbotm]

I think you need to hold back abit more joliver657. The event you are talking about is probably a 10% chance that it will snow down to 300m and and even lesser chance down to sea level. Looks more rainy to me but i hope the cold does come been ages since we had a good cold southerly. M/S seems to be talking about this system but also saying that its very unstable and could go either way a 50/50 call to me. We will know more on a couple days.

[CWUweather]

The title of this thread says cold or polar blast. it will definitely be cold. maybe not polar. so no i dont need to hold back

[Razor]

Looks like a normal winter wet spell to me. Nothing to write home about at this stage.

[CWUweather]

WeatherWatch.co.nz are saying it is quite unusual to have this much rain in such are short amount of time

[CWUweather]

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... er-outlook

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A bit more than violent drizzle you wreckon

[CWUweather]

A bit more than violent drizzle you wreckon

Hell yeah!!

[Storm Struck]

Yes the models tend to show it more E-SE flow now with that low sitting a little further north, so it would be typical of higher inland areas in the high country 400m+ to get a decent dumping.
Still a decent rainfal event for many areas given the state of some of the land around the region and pot holes , some areas will be sheltered though from the peninnsula so the city may not get a huge rainfall but elsewhere should get over 50mm .

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This morning it is further south on the GFS which eastern Otago more in the firing line for good falls of rain. Maybe it will find a middleground in the next couple of runs.

[NZstorm]

GFS 250mb wind chart for 12Z Sunday. Both the subtropical jet and the subantartic jet are in favourable positions for cyclogenesis in the eastern Tasman!