NZ Weather Forum

Going by the warnings out for Canterbury Wednesday and later for Marlborough on Thursday its needing its own thread.

With ground already very wet from rain last week it wont take time for river to rise

Started rain here from 4pm.Will be interesting to see how much falls?

Latest couple of runs, especially this latest run has backed off totals considerably. Rain stopped here from North. 1.5mm. Will track back north tomorrow but way quicker moving and over by early afternoon. The bulk for South Canterbury and about the Kaikoura Coast. Nothing substancial for the city.

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Latest couple of runs, especially this latest run has backed off totals considerably. Rain stopped here from North. 1.5mm. Will track back north tomorrow but way quicker moving and over by early afternoon. The bulk for South Canterbury and about the Kaikoura Coast. Nothing substancial for the city.

Noted, will rate your prediction tomorrow

If the flow is southeasterly, Chch should get less rain due to BP sheltering rainshadow.

Rains got heavy here in the last half hour

Just 15mm here for the event so far, Certainly none of the heavy falls that Metservice said would arrive at 9pm last night.

4.8 degrees currently with light/moderate rain.

tich wrote:If the flow is southeasterly, Chch should get less rain due to BP sheltering rainshadow.

Could well be just what the MS are thinking, i see they have CHCH with only 2.2mm over the next two days

Fresh to strong southeasterly breeze here; light to moderate rain;
5.2 degrees.

light to moderate rain here too,6.5deg and a very light westerly wind.

The snow warning has been downgraded slightly from 20 cm to 10cm above 800m elevation. Some rain has fallen so far but not much snow away from places near or in the Main Divide.

Cleared here an hour ago

Still heavy here with no wind,very much an inland rain going by the radar

Heavy here too, 43mm so far.
Lots of surface water around, Rivers aren't running too high yet.

There had been 20mm here to 9am this morning, and there has been a further 12mm to now.
Very Wet

Don't know how much i've had here,ive gone and frozen and f#*+ another rain gauge,second for the winter i'll have to ask the neighbour how much.

Cant see the heavy rain that M/S have for sun/mon here, looks to far north too me but will wait and see.
Only 13mm here today.

Razor wrote:

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Latest couple of runs, especially this latest run has backed off totals considerably. Rain stopped here from North. 1.5mm. Will track back north tomorrow but way quicker moving and over by early afternoon. The bulk for South Canterbury and about the Kaikoura Coast. Nothing substancial for the city.

Noted, will rate your prediction tomorrow

How did i do?

Looking at the latest GFS for the weekend, looks like next to nothing. I see Metservice have low confidence for heavy rain for Canterbury in their severe weather outlook for the end of the week/early next week and make mention of heavy falls in their forecast outlook but GFS has the high far too strong to the south of NZ.

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:
How did i do?

Did alright ,though along with South Canterbury,north of Waipara had heaps today also.

Weatherzone have a lot of rain Sunday though to Tuesday

Small patch of blue sky over Halswell in the last half an hour - very small, but no rain.

10mm here since 4pm yesterday not sure how it was here but at work inland it was coming down steady/heavy at times from midday to around 2pm.
Small lull in the weather at the moment, i would say another band will shift north again as the low moves off and directs a more S-SE flow overnight.

Yes not overly the best looking on the models as it was yesterday for the weekend/into next week, but it looks like a very cold frontal system collides with the moist laden air from the eastern low early week.
This could see some low level snow fall for the region, maybe not low enough for sea level but there could be some sleet and hail in those showers early week definatly at this stage.
Flow is S-SE so generally a good moisture producer without reading into the models.

Spot on Leighton

About 35mm in Oamaru from the today's event .Lots of water in paddocks and some closed rural roads . Rivers came through Ok though , kept within their banks . As you say Metservice have us facing a third event late this weekend, Unless the models change I am quite confused by what the current models say and what Metservice can see in their forecast models , just that we need to plan the Civil Defence side for assisting rural communities as we can't take much more rain (about 90mm in a week here on the plains and 140mm in the hills)

Unless the models change I am quite confused by what the current models say and what Metservice can see in their forecast models

Both the gfs and ECMWF suggest snow will be the issue in east Otago rather than heavy rain Sunday/early week. But have to see how they shape up in the next day or two.

How are the models looking for late weekend/early next week. I hope it all stays in East Otago and not here in Canterbury.