Significant Rain Event for Eastern SI - Aug 12-15

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The last couple of models are painting some very decent and prolonged rain for parts of the eastern South Island. Still significant uncertainty on the exact track but being 3 days out now, this is one to monitor very closely! Especially for areas already sodden. Next 3-4 runs shall be very interesting!

[LittleTreeHouse]

Eep we're soaked here!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Typical, making this thread prob jinxed that. Last 2 runs backed off again big time. See what the 11am run suggests as getting close to 48 hours away from event now so unless changes back not looking anything like it was. Quite a change in GFS close out considering the consistancy it was showing for a number of runs.

[Razor]

Typical, making this thread prob jinxed that. Last 2 runs backed off again big time. See what the 11am run suggests as getting close to 48 hours away from event now so unless changes back not looking anything like it was. Quite a change in GFS close out considering the consistancy it was showing for a number of runs.

This is a good thing. We don't want this event to occur at all.

[Richard]

Certainly in the early stages its looking like lesser amounts,but Tuesday/Wednesday with that trough redeveloping again to the west could well be the one that brings the most rain.

[Razor]

Looks to be some warm advection capability on Sunday in this system?

[snowykiwi]

So what are the models looking like now? I see Metservice is mentioning the event now.

[melja]

It says clearing north of chch on sun evening in the rural and snow level has gone well up in the canterbury high country- from 700m to 1400 now and 1000m monday so looks to be a fizzer in the north.

[Razor]

It says clearing north of chch on sun evening in the rural and snow level has gone well up in the canterbury high country- from 700m to 1400 now and 1000m monday so looks to be a fizzer in the north.

That would be good thanks

[Flutterbye]

It says clearing north of chch on sun evening in the rural and snow level has gone well up in the canterbury high country- from 700m to 1400 now and 1000m monday so looks to be a fizzer in the north.

I think it might have said that before the morning update.

http://www.metservice.com/national/warn ... er-outlook

[snowstormwatcher]

Not sure where Metservice gets their data from but GFS hasn't really showed much in the last 3 runs.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Back on track this morning with GFS. Not as bad as it once was showing but more significant again. See what midday run brings to see if there is some consistancy.

[Richard]

Yes i was just about to post that its back on track Leighton,but ya beat me to it ,still even that lesser amount will help keep all the rivers about the district at there current high levels,just dont need the heavy stuff really.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes i was just about to post that its back on track Leighton,but ya beat me to it ,still even that lesser amount will help keep all the rivers about the district at there current high levels,just dont need the heavy stuff really.

Might not get the heavy stuff now, well at least not prolonged. Model run just through has backed it off again. Looks like all eases late Monday/early Tuesday.

[boomer]

You never know, you are after all on the southern side of this
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml

[Orion]

Rain's just begun pattering on the roof in the last twenty minutes.
4.5 degrees.

[Richard]

Just a steady rain here and with light winds,again the radar's not picking up much past Waipara.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Light rain over the last hour. Although more a mist at the moment. Radar suggesting it would be more persistent than it is atm. Looks like some decent stuff from around midday, although not as much as the last run was showing.

[Razor]

Steady rain here in cracroft. Stop looking at the models so much and look to the skies

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Persistent light to moderate rain all day so far. 16mm recorded thus far. Wonder if some heavier stuff will move in over the next couple of hours. Been fairly light winds most of the day, looks like SW Just starting to pick up a little.

[snowstormwatcher]

Steady light rain here all day too, Only 8mm so far though.

[Chris Raine]

Steady light rain here in Oamaru 6.6mm so far

[Richard]

Right then,its steady light rain all round,here as well

[Razor]

Yes looks like some decent falls not far away the way things are developing, fits the Blue Skies prediction of heavier stuff this evening/ tonight. Steady and fairly relentless rain so far since early morning.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Steady light rain here from about 7am, with no "thundery" falls, by that, I mean, no rain falling that it sounds like it's thundering down on my roof?
I call this deceiving weather as the rainfall bearing system comes in from between the north or east to SE but you have a surface wind coming in from the west or SW?
Anyway, will give you a rainfall total here at 10pm, on my weather blog