Storms, NW NI, late 18-20th August

[Tornado Tim]

Lastest Aus SAT picture looks amazing with all the lightning activity

Will be very interesting when the system comes closer to NZ

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S only have a low risk?
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... rm-outlook

[NZstorm]

UKmet which brings the cold front through early Monday while GFS has the front before midnight.

I notice a warm front develops tomorrow morning just west of the NI. This is something to watch as thunder could develop on it.

[Manukau heads obs]

maybe the issue re M/S is that the thunderstorm outlook only goes up to midnight sunday

[Tornado Tim]

I see New Plymouth is getting some squally embedded rain atm, some isolated CG strikes off the coast.

[spwill]

flying back from Napier this morning I could see Cb/towering cu clouds near the west coast of Waitomo/ Taranaki, some isolated storms near that coastline.

[Manukau heads obs]

yup, I can see one now offshore from here
the blitzortung picked up strikes from the cb's offshore from raglan early this morning

[Tornado Tim]

the blitzortung picked up strikes from the cb's offshore from raglan early this morning

Yes it tracked embedded storms quite well last night , More info in this thread: here

Looks like the front will grace Waikato residents with its presence around midnight tonight and Auckland a little earlier, it looks like we could get some lightning activity with its passing.
However it looks like more western areas will get a show, due to frontal passages usually weakening over land.

Id love to be proven wrong though

[Tornado Tim]

I see western northland is getting a little lightning atm..

[NZstorm]

We had 13mm yesterday evening with some heavy bursts so a reasonable front.

Today looks favourable for thundery showers over the west of the North Island. Some hail as well no doubt.
Unstable looking skies in Grey Lynn with 13C.

[tgsnoopy]

Must have hit Taranaki fairly hard...

http://www.police.govt.nz/news/updates/32477

August 20, 2012, 12:39 am
Location: State Highway 45, Oakura
District: National Alerts

Road closure due to weather

Short description: Road closure due to weather

Full description:
Police advise that State Highway 45 between Oakura and Omata, south of New Plymouth has been closed due to heavy surface flooding across all lanes at multiple locations.

Water is reported to be running nearly a metre deep in areas blocking off access to all vehicles.

Police have been checking houses in the area and there are no reports of danger to any local residents.

Roading contractors are also enroute with signage to divert traffic.

[NZstorm]

Notice the upper level trough on the sat pic out to our west.

[Manukau heads obs]

we got more rain than we needed from last nights front
now up to 137mm for August already
farms around here need some dry weather!
looks like that is coming

[spwill]

Some thundery Cbs west of Auckland/Waikato currently, perhaps coastal South Auckland/Waikato may hear thunder next hr or two.

[Tornado Tim]

Some thundery Cbs west of Auckland/Waikato currently, perhaps coastal South Auckland/Waikato may hear thunder next hr or two.

It certainly looks that way

Brian, it looks like your in the firing line

[Manukau heads obs]

I think its going to go south of me
nice CB in the innner hauraki gulf right now...ligthning active too

[spwill]

Could see that Cb developing out to the east from here, Auckland dewpoint is 14C so moist for August.

[Manukau heads obs]

just love the blitzortung
first real good test/use for it localy here lately!!

[jamie]

looks like its on a direct path to hamilton. hopfully it holds strong as it traverses across the land. We have 14 dp and 15.8 temp currently. Sunshine has been poking through between passing low cloud and high cloud.

[Tornado Tim]

Latest Outlook looks interesting:

A broad area of low pressure lies over New Zealand, and several troughs are expected to continue crossing the North Island from the west today.

There remains a general low risk of thunderstorms from southern Northland to the Gisborne ranges and south to Buller.

A larger area of moderate risk covers Auckland to East Cape, Manawatu and northwest Nelson.

The most exposed area - where the risk is seen as high - is Waikato to northern Taranaki.

Any thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr, and in the main risk areas, hail of 10-20mm in diameter, as indicated on the chart.

No other areas of thunderstorms or severe convection are expected over New Zealand during Monday.

[tgsnoopy]

Looks like it is loosing it's punch unfortunately.

[Tornado Tim]

Thunder to the west

[Nev]

A suspect report from around 8:15pm last night...


'Tornado reported in Bell Block' - Taranaki Daily News (Stuff)

[spwill]

Got onto a severe thunderstorm at Hampton Downs , gale force winds, 2cm hail. Saw some very nice lightning.

[jamie]

oh good to hear there was actually some large hail. It was a no show here in hamilton. Tim heard thunder but it wasnt loud enough for me to hear inside.