NZ Weather Forum

We are kicking off a new month and a new season after another very wet winter for the east of the South Island, should prove good for future spring growth though, i noticed some trees are coming out alot earlier this year including the Poplars which dont normally come out here until early October.
Anyway it looks like we have a general westerly flow developing for September which will bring warmer temperatures out east, some SW changes hopefully with some thunder chances.
The system over the weekend and into Monday is very slow moving and the models want to develope a low to the east later on, so should be some brief juicy rainfall totals for much of Canterbury and Marlborough.

The system on Monday doesn't look too interesting for Auckland. A wet morning but clearing pm. Maybe isolated cb in the afternoon westerly.

Accumulated rain chart for next 3 days according to gfs.

Great start to spring here with 19.4 degrees currently. High cloud with the sun through thin high cloud and a light N-NE breeze. Looking like some mild to warm days ahead over the next 10-12 days with some cooler spells as well.

the above average rain for eastern SI over the winter months...
that was not really predicted ....eg NIWA did not have that...i.e tending to el nino normaly would not have caused that...
was caused by weeekly lows crossing the NI or central NZ

The dewpoint temperature for Auckland this afternoon was just 6C with a fresh NE breeze, an unusual combination for Auckland, the dry air gives the breeze a cool/cold feel. A sunshine/ cloud mix today, max 16C.

NW Arch cloud today to welcome the commencement of the 2012 calendar/astronomical Spring.
For me this is the 2nd Spring of the year as I experienced Spring in the UK earlier this year.
Nice to see the daffs again

Manukau heads obs wrote:the above average rain for eastern SI over the winter months...
that was not really predicted ....eg NIWA did not have that...i.e tending to el nino normaly would not have caused that...
was caused by weeekly lows crossing the NI or central NZ

Its precisely the seasons trending from La Nina to El Nino which have this pattern. So it was certainly predictable.

The reed switch on my anemometer is stuck.... no wind speed reading for the last 7 hours
Last time this happened it was also windy - coincidence?

David wrote:The reed switch on my anemometer is stuck.... no wind speed reading for the last 7 hours
Last time this happened it was also windy - coincidence?

Just been up on the roof and waved a magnet over the turning part... all good now

put it out this coming week,it should blow it apart...lol and clear the cobwebs too.

David wrote:

David wrote:The reed switch on my anemometer is stuck.... no wind speed reading for the last 7 hours
Last time this happened it was also windy - coincidence?

Just been up on the roof and waved a magnet over the turning part... all good now

@ TonyT: and so did anyone predict it if it was predictable?

Manukau heads obs wrote:@ TonyT: and so did anyone predict it if it was predictable?

A cloudier, colder, and probably wetter season was in our long range predictions from March through June. They included statements like this:
"So long as the ENSO pattern trends away from La Nina towards El Nino we can expect to see weather systems around New Zealand to continue to be highly variable, with storms developing in the Tasman Sea and moving over the country, and ridges of high pressure angling to bring periods of easterly and southerly airflow over Canterbury. This was the pattern we anticipated some months ago when we predicted a colder and cloudier than usual winter for Canterbury, and it is what seems to be happening."

Even our February outlook had this:
"So long as La Nina continues to prevail we expect unsettled weather with highly variable airflow over Canterbury to continue. While there will be some periods of westerly airflow over the South Island, there will also be frequent cold fronts and troughs moving across the Tasman Sea, leading to a rather unsettled time for Canterbury. Pressures are expected to remain low over the northern Tasman Sea, and the current trend for anticyclones and higher air pressures across the south Tasman Sea and extending onto the South Island from the Southern Ocean should continue over the next few months. If La Nina conditions persist through late autumn and into winter, expect a colder and cloudier than usual winter."

Instead of focussing on the La Nina/El Nino look at the trend, that often is more illuminating and helpful in a predictive sense IMO.

But then somewhere else ie australia had cold flows,also south america was covered in sw flows at the time too.

It's 18.5 degrees here at the moment
Daffodils, plum-blossom, etc.
Very nice.

Very nice here also, up to 17 degrees this afternoon.

Growth seems to be a couple of weeks ahead of normal Although I Have only noticed a couple trees in blossom.

Anyone else see the Sunday star times article on weather enthusiasts? Ricky and Willoughby are in the article, and there is a photo of Willoughby too

David wrote:Anyone else see the Sunday star times article on weather enthusiasts? Ricky and Willoughby are in the article, and there is a photo of Willoughby too

Yes, I did and mentioned it in the Off Topic section under the "I See" topic.

David wrote:Anyone else see the Sunday star times article on weather enthusiasts? Ricky and Willoughby are in the article, and there is a photo of Willoughby too

Below is a transcript. Willoughby and Ricky get a mention in the last section (doesn't include the pic of Willoughby in the US though ).

'Foul-weather men' - Stuff

awww yey i get a mention in that even, just not my name (ref to the friend minding the hamiltonweather.co.nz site for Will)

cool article

Manukau heads obs wrote:cool article

The Newspaper one was a bit better, showing Will in the USA.

...anyway on topic. dull weather day today with not much rain, most of the precip paasing out to the east and clipping Banks Peninisula. Dosen't look "crucial" enough for thunderstorms here tomorrow so not expecting much, not even the one less than a thunderstorm risk and that is "showers, some heavy"....
....but anything could happen?

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Great start to spring here with 19.4 degrees currently. High cloud with the sun through thin high cloud and a light N-NE breeze. Looking like some mild to warm days ahead over the next 10-12 days with some cooler spells as well.

I got married during that. Magic day.

in 20 years time we should be able to ask you what the weather was like on the day you got married, and you should be able to remember then Razor....you might not remember what the bride was wearing though!

Yes like this day in 2010 we had a lovely sunny day after a frost (and the earthquake!), and hail showers the day before. Speaking of hail - I don't think we've had any this winter.

carrot wrote: Speaking of hail - I don't think we've had any this winter.

Early next week has a Wintry look to it at this stage.