General September Weather

[David]

Looks like some warm air crossing the country Sunday - warm for eastern South Island!

[Tornado Tim]

A fairly cloudy day here with fairly mild temps.

[Storm Struck]

I have been told that on the west coast near Greymouth has just had some big squally winds with heavy rain and hail, so i went to check the radar and it looks like there could be a small new low developing off the coast there.
Definatly a rotating feature, wouldnt surprise me if a waterspout or two popped out of it.

[Orion]

12mm so far today from rain which began in Ashburton around midday but was still only light in this area when I came home at 3pm. Sounds heavier now though...
8.0 degrees.

[snowstormwatcher]

18mm of rain here for the day, Still raining but not as heavy as earlier on.
7.4 degrees.

[NZstorm]

Friday looks unstable over the upper half of the North Island. There maybe some convergence over the west of Waikato but given the time of year, it looks uncertain?

Looks like Friday should be quite warm in Auckland with temperature 20C and dp14C.

Looks to be the chance of convergence convection over inland upper North Island Saturday. Still a bit of moisture hanging on by the looks but the upper trough will be pulling away.

[spwill]

Yes, have to see how the moisture pool and upper trough track over the next couple of days as we are on the edge of this system, some decent moisture there for September.

[jamie]

Friday looks unstable over the upper half of the North Island. There maybe some convergence over the west of Waikato but given the time of year, it looks uncertain?

Ive seen some great convergence storms in western waikato very early october, so potential is there

[NZstorm]

Latest run of the gfs 18Z, suggests convergence thunderstorms possible from Northland to Waikato Friday.

[Tornado Tim]

I tend to agree with Metservice at this stage......

Conditions are forecast to remain humid at low levels behind the front, with slight cooling at high levels, which increases the threat of deep instability.However, slight warming at mid levels is expected to act as a significant inhibition to such deep instability. Hence, showers are likely over northern parts of the North Island behind the frontal rainband, especially during the afternoon and early evening. However, the general risk of thunderstorms in these areas is considered low, as indicated on the chart.

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Screen Shot 2012-09-27 at 11.02.45 AM.png

Looks like the cap may be a bit too strong....

[NZstorm]

Looks like the cap may be a bit too strong....

Tim, your skew t is the lifting the parcel with a temp of 13.7C and dp 11.1C.

Looks like parts of the upper North will have a temp 19C and dp14C.

[Tornado Tim]

Tim, your skew t is the lifting the parcel with a temp of 13.7C and dp 11.1C.

Yes I realise that, however the sounding no matter what the SFC temp has a strong cap, I put it up to show that, not so much the SFC temp and DP.

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like there has been a bit of investigation going on in the Metservice office with the latest T-storm outlook for tomorrow just coming out
Remaining Low risk for sections of the North Island.

[NZstorm]

Hopefully with the SE the stratocumulus will break up today and give us some fine warm weather. Has the potential to be to 20C if the clouds can break up.

[David]

It's certainly warming up very quickly in Howick at the moment, up to 17.6°C now looking at my website.

[jamie]

Was patches of blue sky earlier today but not any blue now. i was hoping to see the sun.

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like there is a bit of shear out there today, Moderate SFC SE breeze with an Upper level flow being NE indicated by Radar. Fairly warm out, hanging around 19°C, might hit 20°C hopefully. Possible shower later on....

I see the nest few days the SFC temp is expected to be in the low 20's, then reducing back to mid teens with the SW change.

[spwill]

No sun here, humid air has arrived here last hr or two,current 18C/dewpoint 14C, started day with the dewpoint on 10C.

[03Stormchaser]

Monday still shaping up to be a good chase day in the south

[David]

Shame about the cloudiness today, oh well hopefully we'll hit 20 tomorrow. Heavy drizzle here now, dewpoint up to 15

[Storm Struck]

Yeah Monday is looking quite good for thunderstorms and hail, should come through late afternoon/evening.
It was looking quite coastal but now could be quite a scattered event even inland, will be able to take chase after 3pm when i get out of work.
In the meantime a warm sunday is on the cards maybe up to 25C which will be nice.

[NZstorm]

Yes, Looking like a nice polar system on Monday crossing NZ. I notice the 500mb -25C line gets as far north as western Waikato.

Looks like some convection possible over the BOP ranges this afternoon. The moisture looks good on the Rotorua sounding.

[spwill]

Amazing the affect of dewpont on how temperature feels, 16C here currently feels warm as the Dp is 15C.

The cold trough early next week is over southern parts of OZ today with snow forecast to 500m there

[jamie]

yea ive been out working al morning and cam back to expect to see the temp nearing 20. But your right spwill, its that dew point making it feel warmer than it really is.

Its going to be a beautiful sunny, warm day today.

[spwill]

A January feel with the Auckland dewpoint on 16C, Greylynn has reached 20C