Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ

[NZstorm]

Looking like a good shot of polar air crossing the country with wintry showers.

Looks like snow to low levels will make it onto the lower and eastern North Island as well!

Heavy snow possible for western Southland and Tongariro.

GFS thickness chart for midnight Tuesday.

[Richard]

Just what garden centres like to see this time of year,noticed a heap of people buying there tomato plants at Mitre10 yesterday.

[spwill]

Given Spring started a little early this year this system is bad news for growers.

[Dean.]

Very cold but mostly dry for these parts I think

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Very cold but mostly dry for these parts I think

Agreed! I see Metservice going for sleety showers in this neck of the woods and snow to sea level in Southland and Otago for some of the period. Moisture for Canterbury very little.

[spwill]

The frosts are the problem, for horticulture.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Very cold but mostly dry for these parts I think

Agreed! I see Metservice going for sleety showers in this neck of the woods and snow to sea level in Southland and Otago for some of the period. Moisture for Canterbury very little.

No thunder though as not disturbed enough although I hope I'm wrong.

[CWUweather]

metservice are changing the forecasts for canterbury. looking quite cold an winter like

[NZstorm]

No escaping the cold from this set up but atleast its just a quick flick. Dunedin and Christchurch will get snow showers tomorrow. Snow flurries on Wellington hills. Auckland may get some small hail.

Severe inland frosts for Wednesday!

[CWUweather]

Very cold cold air with snow making potential is due to hit Southland later this evening. The snow risk mainly lies in Southland, coastal Otago and North Canterbury. Parts of Central Otago and South Canterbury will also get a few flurries but due to the southwesterly airflow it will be a little more sheltered there then coastal areas in terms of receiving snowy weather. The ranges in Fiordland and through to South and parts of North Westland also carry a risk.

Snow will develop to 500m this evening in Southland then lowering to sea level by late Tuesday morning, snow showers will then clear at night. Accumulation of 5 to 10cm to 500m and 3 to 5cm to sea level is possible. Temperatures are not likely to get above 6 degrees in Southland on Tuesday so it will be a very cold day.

Some snow will fall in Central Otago today to 700m spreading from the west, expect 3 to 5cm. Early tomorrow morning the flow changes more southwesterly, a maximum of a further 3 to 5cm of snow to low levels is possible during the day clearing in the evening however the result may only be a centimetre or two on Tuesday. It will likely be very cold on Tuesday not getting above 4 degrees, severe frosts can be expected on Tuesday night so black ice will be a concern for Wednesday morning.

About coastal Otago, bitterly cold strong to gale force southwesterly winds develop tomorrow morning bringing snow flurries to sea level which clear on Wednesday morning. All up 5 to 10cm could accumulate to sea level during this event however due to snow melt at times final amounts could be in the range of 3 to 5cm. Tuesday will be very cold with temperatures not getting above 6 degrees however no frosts at night as southwesterly winds will keep temperatures just above 0 degrees.

For the likes of coastal Canterbury mainly about Banks Peninsula and Christchurch expect strong cold southwesterlies to develop by midday tomorrow, sleety showers develop in the afternoon and there is even the chance of a few sea level snow flurries later in the evening. Accumulations will likely be 5 to 10cm on Banks Peninsula to 300m, 3 to 5cm down to 200 maybe even 100m. A slim chance of a centimetre or two accumulating to sea level. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered from these southwesterly airflows so while it will be cold the snow risk is low, perhaps 1 or 2 centimetres to low levels in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night. For inland North Canterbury 3 to 5cm to low levels is possible in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night.

Low level snow flurries will also develop about the Kaikoura coast late afternoon on Tuesday clearing overnight with the potential for 3 to 5cm. And in Wellington showery conditions develop late afternoon or evening tomorrow, snow in the ranges to 600m lowering to 200m overnight. 5 to 10cm possible to 600m and 3 to 5cm possible to 200m. A few sleety showers may even make it into the capital early on Wednesday morning for a time.

[borris89]

Front hitting Dunedin now. Rain just starting and wind has arrived, already dropped 5 degrees

[sw_windbow]

Decent hail coming in at forty five degrees.

[sw_windbow]

Nice spring day then bam!

[Storm Struck]

Not quite sure why MS backed off on the thunder charts from moderate at lunchtime to low risk now and a different set up, to me a general moderate risk is certainly there for much of the region especially about the coast and up through north canterbury with the wind change and trough.
This may not be until 2-3pm so there could well be some CB's develope ahead of the windchange anyway.
It looks like a very typical chain shower set up for the city come tomorrow night and with the temperature dropping to near freezing overnight there could be a reasonable accumulation to near sea level.
These situations weve seen before where cloud thickness in the CB showers gains more so as it hits land in that channel from Rolleston northwards up through Amberley etc, but not much further south in Canterbury for a majority of the blast.
So dont read into the GFS surface moisture models too much in this instance.

[mikestormchaser]

Id be saying thunderstorms and hail 2mro arvo yes, thats what would be my forcarst, not sure about the s now though and how much we would get/ the air looked very dry to me on metvuw models. maybe nzstorm could corect me on other models he may have seen? and whats his thoughts on a chance of a thunderstorm along the change?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Very cold cold air with snow making potential is due to hit Southland later this evening. The snow risk mainly lies in Southland, coastal Otago and North Canterbury. Parts of Central Otago and South Canterbury will also get a few flurries but due to the southwesterly airflow it will be a little more sheltered there then coastal areas in terms of receiving snowy weather. The ranges in Fiordland and through to South and parts of North Westland also carry a risk.

Snow will develop to 500m this evening in Southland then lowering to sea level by late Tuesday morning, snow showers will then clear at night. Accumulation of 5 to 10cm to 500m and 3 to 5cm to sea level is possible. Temperatures are not likely to get above 6 degrees in Southland on Tuesday so it will be a very cold day.

Some snow will fall in Central Otago today to 700m spreading from the west, expect 3 to 5cm. Early tomorrow morning the flow changes more southwesterly, a maximum of a further 3 to 5cm of snow to low levels is possible during the day clearing in the evening however the result may only be a centimetre or two on Tuesday. It will likely be very cold on Tuesday not getting above 4 degrees, severe frosts can be expected on Tuesday night so black ice will be a concern for Wednesday morning.

About coastal Otago, bitterly cold strong to gale force southwesterly winds develop tomorrow morning bringing snow flurries to sea level which clear on Wednesday morning. All up 5 to 10cm could accumulate to sea level during this event however due to snow melt at times final amounts could be in the range of 3 to 5cm. Tuesday will be very cold with temperatures not getting above 6 degrees however no frosts at night as southwesterly winds will keep temperatures just above 0 degrees.

For the likes of coastal Canterbury mainly about Banks Peninsula and Christchurch expect strong cold southwesterlies to develop by midday tomorrow, sleety showers develop in the afternoon and there is even the chance of a few sea level snow flurries later in the evening. Accumulations will likely be 5 to 10cm on Banks Peninsula to 300m, 3 to 5cm down to 200 maybe even 100m. A slim chance of a centimetre or two accumulating to sea level. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered from these southwesterly airflows so while it will be cold the snow risk is low, perhaps 1 or 2 centimetres to low levels in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night. For inland North Canterbury 3 to 5cm to low levels is possible in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night.

Low level snow flurries will also develop about the Kaikoura coast late afternoon on Tuesday clearing overnight with the potential for 3 to 5cm. And in Wellington showery conditions develop late afternoon or evening tomorrow, snow in the ranges to 600m lowering to 200m overnight. 5 to 10cm possible to 600m and 3 to 5cm possible to 200m. A few sleety showers may even make it into the capital early on Wednesday morning for a time.

This sounds very similar to what Aaron is writing on Weatherwatch.com ???

[Michael]

Wouldnt be surprised it will continue right through the spring too.

[Orion]

Sun's up; some high cloud moving purposefully across from the southwest, more cloud on the horizon to the south.
Heard a bellbird - they tend to come down from the hills when the weather's severe.
3.3 degrees.
I wonder how Polar it will become...

[Richard]

In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.

Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.

[CWUweather]

In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.

Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.

light southerly in chch. sunny though its coming

[Andy]

Sleet rain / hail falling here snow has settled down to 300m south and east of Alexandra.
Temp 2 degrees bitterly cold wind.

[Michael]

Sometimes it seems that way,ie when its WSW looking to the north the clouds barely move it seems as theyre moving away,when its SW or SSW they race across it looks from the east.

In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.

Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.

[kiwisk8er]

Talked to my dad in Dunedin and it's snowing at sea level but not settling because the ground is to wet.

[Andy]

Snow falling here and settling, temp 1.6

[CWUweather]

i see weatherwatch are saying that 3-5cm could settle to sea level in chch. that seems a bit exaggerated doesn't it?