Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Looking like a good shot of polar air crossing the country with wintry showers.
Looks like snow to low levels will make it onto the lower and eastern North Island as well!
Heavy snow possible for western Southland and Tongariro.
GFS thickness chart for midnight Tuesday.
Looks like snow to low levels will make it onto the lower and eastern North Island as well!
Heavy snow possible for western Southland and Tongariro.
GFS thickness chart for midnight Tuesday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- Richard
- Posts: 8378
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1661 times
- Been thanked: 802 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Just what garden centres like to see this time of year,noticed a heap of people buying there tomato plants at Mitre10 yesterday.
-
- Posts: 9920
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 856 times
- Been thanked: 870 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Given Spring started a little early this year this system is bad news for growers.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Agreed! I see Metservice going for sleety showers in this neck of the woods and snow to sea level in Southland and Otago for some of the period. Moisture for Canterbury very little.Deano wrote:Very cold but mostly dry for these parts I think
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
-
- Posts: 18493
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1771 times
- Been thanked: 1415 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
No thunder though as not disturbed enough although I hope I'm wrong.CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Agreed! I see Metservice going for sleety showers in this neck of the woods and snow to sea level in Southland and Otago for some of the period. Moisture for Canterbury very little.Deano wrote:Very cold but mostly dry for these parts I think
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
metservice are changing the forecasts for canterbury. looking quite cold an winter like
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
No escaping the cold from this set up but atleast its just a quick flick. Dunedin and Christchurch will get snow showers tomorrow. Snow flurries on Wellington hills. Auckland may get some small hail.
Severe inland frosts for Wednesday!
Severe inland frosts for Wednesday!
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Very cold cold air with snow making potential is due to hit Southland later this evening. The snow risk mainly lies in Southland, coastal Otago and North Canterbury. Parts of Central Otago and South Canterbury will also get a few flurries but due to the southwesterly airflow it will be a little more sheltered there then coastal areas in terms of receiving snowy weather. The ranges in Fiordland and through to South and parts of North Westland also carry a risk.
Snow will develop to 500m this evening in Southland then lowering to sea level by late Tuesday morning, snow showers will then clear at night. Accumulation of 5 to 10cm to 500m and 3 to 5cm to sea level is possible. Temperatures are not likely to get above 6 degrees in Southland on Tuesday so it will be a very cold day.
Some snow will fall in Central Otago today to 700m spreading from the west, expect 3 to 5cm. Early tomorrow morning the flow changes more southwesterly, a maximum of a further 3 to 5cm of snow to low levels is possible during the day clearing in the evening however the result may only be a centimetre or two on Tuesday. It will likely be very cold on Tuesday not getting above 4 degrees, severe frosts can be expected on Tuesday night so black ice will be a concern for Wednesday morning.
About coastal Otago, bitterly cold strong to gale force southwesterly winds develop tomorrow morning bringing snow flurries to sea level which clear on Wednesday morning. All up 5 to 10cm could accumulate to sea level during this event however due to snow melt at times final amounts could be in the range of 3 to 5cm. Tuesday will be very cold with temperatures not getting above 6 degrees however no frosts at night as southwesterly winds will keep temperatures just above 0 degrees.
For the likes of coastal Canterbury mainly about Banks Peninsula and Christchurch expect strong cold southwesterlies to develop by midday tomorrow, sleety showers develop in the afternoon and there is even the chance of a few sea level snow flurries later in the evening. Accumulations will likely be 5 to 10cm on Banks Peninsula to 300m, 3 to 5cm down to 200 maybe even 100m. A slim chance of a centimetre or two accumulating to sea level. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered from these southwesterly airflows so while it will be cold the snow risk is low, perhaps 1 or 2 centimetres to low levels in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night. For inland North Canterbury 3 to 5cm to low levels is possible in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night.
Low level snow flurries will also develop about the Kaikoura coast late afternoon on Tuesday clearing overnight with the potential for 3 to 5cm. And in Wellington showery conditions develop late afternoon or evening tomorrow, snow in the ranges to 600m lowering to 200m overnight. 5 to 10cm possible to 600m and 3 to 5cm possible to 200m. A few sleety showers may even make it into the capital early on Wednesday morning for a time.
Snow will develop to 500m this evening in Southland then lowering to sea level by late Tuesday morning, snow showers will then clear at night. Accumulation of 5 to 10cm to 500m and 3 to 5cm to sea level is possible. Temperatures are not likely to get above 6 degrees in Southland on Tuesday so it will be a very cold day.
Some snow will fall in Central Otago today to 700m spreading from the west, expect 3 to 5cm. Early tomorrow morning the flow changes more southwesterly, a maximum of a further 3 to 5cm of snow to low levels is possible during the day clearing in the evening however the result may only be a centimetre or two on Tuesday. It will likely be very cold on Tuesday not getting above 4 degrees, severe frosts can be expected on Tuesday night so black ice will be a concern for Wednesday morning.
About coastal Otago, bitterly cold strong to gale force southwesterly winds develop tomorrow morning bringing snow flurries to sea level which clear on Wednesday morning. All up 5 to 10cm could accumulate to sea level during this event however due to snow melt at times final amounts could be in the range of 3 to 5cm. Tuesday will be very cold with temperatures not getting above 6 degrees however no frosts at night as southwesterly winds will keep temperatures just above 0 degrees.
For the likes of coastal Canterbury mainly about Banks Peninsula and Christchurch expect strong cold southwesterlies to develop by midday tomorrow, sleety showers develop in the afternoon and there is even the chance of a few sea level snow flurries later in the evening. Accumulations will likely be 5 to 10cm on Banks Peninsula to 300m, 3 to 5cm down to 200 maybe even 100m. A slim chance of a centimetre or two accumulating to sea level. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered from these southwesterly airflows so while it will be cold the snow risk is low, perhaps 1 or 2 centimetres to low levels in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night. For inland North Canterbury 3 to 5cm to low levels is possible in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night.
Low level snow flurries will also develop about the Kaikoura coast late afternoon on Tuesday clearing overnight with the potential for 3 to 5cm. And in Wellington showery conditions develop late afternoon or evening tomorrow, snow in the ranges to 600m lowering to 200m overnight. 5 to 10cm possible to 600m and 3 to 5cm possible to 200m. A few sleety showers may even make it into the capital early on Wednesday morning for a time.
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
-
- Posts: 217
- Joined: Mon 06/02/2006 21:21
- Location: Havelock North, Hawkes Bay/ Dunedin, Otago
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Front hitting Dunedin now. Rain just starting and wind has arrived, already dropped 5 degrees
-
- Posts: 241
- Joined: Tue 13/06/2006 15:21
- Location: Dunedin
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
-
- Posts: 241
- Joined: Tue 13/06/2006 15:21
- Location: Dunedin
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 393 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Not quite sure why MS backed off on the thunder charts from moderate at lunchtime to low risk now and a different set up, to me a general moderate risk is certainly there for much of the region especially about the coast and up through north canterbury with the wind change and trough.
This may not be until 2-3pm so there could well be some CB's develope ahead of the windchange anyway.
It looks like a very typical chain shower set up for the city come tomorrow night and with the temperature dropping to near freezing overnight there could be a reasonable accumulation to near sea level.
These situations weve seen before where cloud thickness in the CB showers gains more so as it hits land in that channel from Rolleston northwards up through Amberley etc, but not much further south in Canterbury for a majority of the blast.
So dont read into the GFS surface moisture models too much in this instance.
This may not be until 2-3pm so there could well be some CB's develope ahead of the windchange anyway.
It looks like a very typical chain shower set up for the city come tomorrow night and with the temperature dropping to near freezing overnight there could be a reasonable accumulation to near sea level.
These situations weve seen before where cloud thickness in the CB showers gains more so as it hits land in that channel from Rolleston northwards up through Amberley etc, but not much further south in Canterbury for a majority of the blast.
So dont read into the GFS surface moisture models too much in this instance.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 2714
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 356 times
- Been thanked: 609 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Id be saying thunderstorms and hail 2mro arvo yes, thats what would be my forcarst, not sure about the s now though and how much we would get/ the air looked very dry to me on metvuw models. maybe nzstorm could corect me on other models he may have seen? and whats his thoughts on a chance of a thunderstorm along the change?
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
-
- Posts: 18493
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1771 times
- Been thanked: 1415 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
This sounds very similar to what Aaron is writing on Weatherwatch.com ???joliver657 wrote:Very cold cold air with snow making potential is due to hit Southland later this evening. The snow risk mainly lies in Southland, coastal Otago and North Canterbury. Parts of Central Otago and South Canterbury will also get a few flurries but due to the southwesterly airflow it will be a little more sheltered there then coastal areas in terms of receiving snowy weather. The ranges in Fiordland and through to South and parts of North Westland also carry a risk.
Snow will develop to 500m this evening in Southland then lowering to sea level by late Tuesday morning, snow showers will then clear at night. Accumulation of 5 to 10cm to 500m and 3 to 5cm to sea level is possible. Temperatures are not likely to get above 6 degrees in Southland on Tuesday so it will be a very cold day.
Some snow will fall in Central Otago today to 700m spreading from the west, expect 3 to 5cm. Early tomorrow morning the flow changes more southwesterly, a maximum of a further 3 to 5cm of snow to low levels is possible during the day clearing in the evening however the result may only be a centimetre or two on Tuesday. It will likely be very cold on Tuesday not getting above 4 degrees, severe frosts can be expected on Tuesday night so black ice will be a concern for Wednesday morning.
About coastal Otago, bitterly cold strong to gale force southwesterly winds develop tomorrow morning bringing snow flurries to sea level which clear on Wednesday morning. All up 5 to 10cm could accumulate to sea level during this event however due to snow melt at times final amounts could be in the range of 3 to 5cm. Tuesday will be very cold with temperatures not getting above 6 degrees however no frosts at night as southwesterly winds will keep temperatures just above 0 degrees.
For the likes of coastal Canterbury mainly about Banks Peninsula and Christchurch expect strong cold southwesterlies to develop by midday tomorrow, sleety showers develop in the afternoon and there is even the chance of a few sea level snow flurries later in the evening. Accumulations will likely be 5 to 10cm on Banks Peninsula to 300m, 3 to 5cm down to 200 maybe even 100m. A slim chance of a centimetre or two accumulating to sea level. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered from these southwesterly airflows so while it will be cold the snow risk is low, perhaps 1 or 2 centimetres to low levels in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night. For inland North Canterbury 3 to 5cm to low levels is possible in the afternoon and evening then clearing at night.
Low level snow flurries will also develop about the Kaikoura coast late afternoon on Tuesday clearing overnight with the potential for 3 to 5cm. And in Wellington showery conditions develop late afternoon or evening tomorrow, snow in the ranges to 600m lowering to 200m overnight. 5 to 10cm possible to 600m and 3 to 5cm possible to 200m. A few sleety showers may even make it into the capital early on Wednesday morning for a time.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Wouldnt be surprised it will continue right through the spring too.
-
- Posts: 4006
- Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
- Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
- Has thanked: 1382 times
- Been thanked: 333 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Sun's up; some high cloud moving purposefully across from the southwest, more cloud on the horizon to the south.
Heard a bellbird - they tend to come down from the hills when the weather's severe.
3.3 degrees.
I wonder how Polar it will become...
Heard a bellbird - they tend to come down from the hills when the weather's severe.
3.3 degrees.
I wonder how Polar it will become...
- Richard
- Posts: 8378
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1661 times
- Been thanked: 802 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.
Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.
Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
light southerly in chch. sunny though its comingRichard wrote:In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.
Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
-
- Posts: 1424
- Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
- Location: Alexandra
- Has thanked: 134 times
- Been thanked: 63 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Sleet rain / hail falling here snow has settled down to 300m south and east of Alexandra.
Temp 2 degrees bitterly cold wind.
Temp 2 degrees bitterly cold wind.
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Sometimes it seems that way,ie when its WSW looking to the north the clouds barely move it seems as theyre moving away,when its SW or SSW they race across it looks from the east.
Richard wrote:In yet watching the cloud here i can barely see it moving.
Just a light westerly here and some frozen raindrops on the car this morning,2deg currently.
- kiwisk8er
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Mon 03/04/2006 13:17
- Location: Mosgiel, Dunedin 20 m ASL
- Has thanked: 24 times
- Been thanked: 46 times
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
Talked to my dad in Dunedin and it's snowing at sea level but not settling because the ground is to wet.
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak Tuesday/Wednesday for NZ
i see weatherwatch are saying that 3-5cm could settle to sea level in chch. that seems a bit exaggerated doesn't it?
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!