Frontal System - 14th-16th September

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Tornado Tim
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Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Looks like The west coast could get a another drenching with a cold front sweeping up the country.
As NZstorm mentioned in the other thread, chance of thunder on Sunday afternoon.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like the front will slow down as it moves into the Bay of Plenty Sunday due to the high east of the North Island.
This means heavy falls on the cards for eastern Bay of Plenty and with the upper air cooling on the front, a risk of thunderstorms developing there.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by spwill »

So the cold trough gets held out west of here Sunday giving us a mostly dry day, some heavy showers arriving in the evening with a wind change/upper level cooling.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I see, sorry wrong thread here, the heavy snow forecast has drifted slowly SE and risen now so we will just get rain here in Canterbury but the falls don't look all that significant. 8)
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by spwill »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: the heavy snow forecast has drifted slowly SE )
Looks chilly over the deep south tonight given there is breeze, cloud cover and some precipitation , Gore on 3.8C, Invercargill 5.1C and Dunedin on 6.5C.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Michael »

there seems to be a southerly quite quick behind the low to affect the south island as early as even tomorrow plus coupled with the cold air from the week gone.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks to be a window for thunder/hail from Northland to Waikato late afternoon/early evening Sunday as the polar trough crosses.
It looks an iffy set up but one to watch out for anyway.

12Z gfs 500mb tomorrow 6pm
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by spwill »

iffy set up
Dewpoints should be reasonable tomorrow, up to 12C, it will come down to the track the upper trough takes.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by melja »

Michael wrote:there seems to be a southerly quite quick behind the low to affect the south island as early as even tomorrow plus coupled with the cold air from the week gone.
No cold air from the week gone, NWer got that away.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by David »

Fairly heavy rain here, 7.2mm in the last hour
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by David »

David wrote:Fairly heavy rain here, 7.2mm in the last hour
Now 10.6mm in the past hour
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like the front has stalled/slow down a bit eariler....just east of the auckland area...and you are getting it David
sort of thing?
we are getting sporadic heavy showers here still with the wind NNE
instead of the forecasted NW
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Richard »

We missed out 100% out of any rain from the system,dam it all,its starting to dry out now and could do with some more rain.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by David »

Manukau heads obs wrote:looks like the front has stalled/slow down a bit eariler....just east of the auckland area...and you are getting it David
Especially wet just now... 6mm in the last hour. 34mm since it started after sunset yesterday!
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by spwill »

Still some light rain here with this front hanging on, I can see the clearance sitting just west of here.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

8mm of rain here for the last 24hrs.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by jamie »

Manukau heads obs wrote:looks like the front has stalled/slow down a bit eariler....just east of the auckland area...and you are getting it David
sort of thing?
we are getting sporadic heavy showers here still with the wind NNE
instead of the forecasted NW
Yea i thought the exact same thing when i woke up this morning and had a look at things. I would think this has reduced our thunder chances this afternoon by quite a bit.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by spwill »

jamie.haultain wrote:[. I would think this has reduced our thunder chances this afternoon by quite a bit.
Yes, it will tend to hold the afternoon/evening troughing a bit further west
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Reasonable set up for thunderstorms in Canterbury tomorrow with the cold southerly and good timing with it coming in later on, onshore coastal winds prior also.
Moderate risk on MS, ive been keeping an eye on that front the last few days its hard to say its a high risk being only 16 days into spring and sea temperatures are not that warm yet either.
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Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by jamie »

This front is not going anywhere fast. It's quite wet here and we are only on the edge of it. East of us will be gettin swamped by the rain. The front has done what they said and stalled but not over Eastern BOP. Its over western BOP eastern Waikato.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by NZstorm »

The high cloud is slow to shift here but atleast the rain is gone.

Looks like the unstable weather out to the west of the North Island will head for Taranaki overnight.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

NZstorm wrote: Looks like the unstable weather out to the west of the North Island will head for Taranaki overnight.
It looks like the 1st trough seems to be directed Taranaki direction, the trough that's circling around the low looks like it could pass further north, bringing more of risk of thunder this evening and overnight to Waikato, possibly Auckland.

The front should get its legs back and shift eastwards as the LLC has rotated fully around the broader area of Low pressure and is starting to surge east.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by jamie »

its clearing here now to reveal some unstable looking clouds. very humid and mild.
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by GraemeWi »

Reports of thunder and lightning at Helensville - plenty of rain apparently!
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Re: Frontal System - 14th-16th September

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, looking showery out to NW and some big t/cu.

NE surface wind here which is good for convergence.
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