Possible Storms Canterbury 26/9/12

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Wed 26/09/2012 09:16

Moderate tstorm risk north of Christchurch. Quite a funny shaped warning area ...

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 26/09/2012 09:18

Lacertae wrote:Moderate tstorm risk north of Christchurch. Quite a funny shaped warning area, having seen one like that before ...

Im undecided about it atm, models seemed to have pulled back alittle since last night. Will probably still head out tho

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 26/09/2012 09:45

A trough is expected to move east over the South Island this afternoon. At the same time a southerly change is expected to spread north across Canterbury.

There is a low risk of isolated thunderstorms with the trough and in it s wake,late this morning and early this afternoon in Westland.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening over Canterbury inland and north of Christchurch City and a broader low risk area as indicated on the chart. These storms could be accompanied by bursts of heavy rain, with intensities of 10 to 15mm/hr and small hail.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 26/09/2012 10:12

Low cloud down this way,looks like its about to drizzle.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 26/09/2012 10:31

Deano wrote:Low cloud down this way,looks like its about to drizzle.

A mix of high and middle layer cloud here,little to no wind as well.

snowstormwatcher · Unread post by **snowstormwatcher** » Wed 26/09/2012 10:58

Richard wrote:
A mix of high and middle layer cloud here,little to no wind as well.

Yeah same here, No chance of storms with this cloud cover. Not that warm ether on 11 degrees.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 26/09/2012 11:01

Yea this cloud cover is the big killer, should it burn off there would be a better chance. Did notice mammatus this morning over Christchurch, always a good sign.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 26/09/2012 11:54

Murky low cloud rolling in with a high cloud overlay.
Chance of storms? I would say minimal to zero

snowstormwatcher · Unread post by **snowstormwatcher** » Wed 26/09/2012 12:04

low cloud and rain here now, So no chance of storms in this area today.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 26/09/2012 14:57

Nice quick band of steady/heavy rain has passed over here, but going by the radars its clearing again soon so if the sun comes out which the cloud seems to be brightening up then there might be something in the foothills of North Canterbury within the next 3 hours.
We had a southerly earlier on but its pretty much died off now here, so if a NE sneaks in it could be somewhat interesting.
Some hope there but worth making note should anything change in the coming hours, the majority of that rain band sitting over south canterbury will shift north later on so maybe a more keen southerly then.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 26/09/2012 15:47

Sun is out now and a slight NW wind blowing with a lovely mild 18.5deg,no sign of anything yet

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 26/09/2012 16:49

I see metservice have dropped the risk to low and only over North Canterbury

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 26/09/2012 18:28

F-I-Z-Z.....

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 26/09/2012 18:35

.....E-R

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 26/09/2012 19:05

Well, judging from my perspective, it didn't look like it anyway. Constant SW or WSW here from when I arrived home from work around 2pm with lower cloud because of the cooler conditions.
Rain from the higher up cloud moving south didn't help much either.
Earlier scientific scenarios probably indicated a risk of lightning occuring within the cloud somewhere but...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 28/09/2012 19:34

Actually, I thought yesterday, Thursday looked more threatoning, thunderwize than Wednesday!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 28/09/2012 20:39

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Actually, I thought yesterday, Thursday looked more threatoning, thunderwize than Wednesday!

Interesting you say that John because yesterday looked very thundery for a time around lunch time.
Got very unstable and some nice height to some TCU around the place.
I did read there was some cold air aloft on the west coast stretching out to authers pass yesterday afternoon, just wonderd whether some of that cold upper air made it abit further east then expected.
Oh well nothing happend anyway.

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