Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

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Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

There could be some.
The potential looks very good acccording to Aaron's showing us of various models for the day on my new laptop.
:o
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Yeah whats nzstorm's opinion on thunderstorms for canterbury tomorrow? certainly seemed good from what we looked at last night, everything matches up right.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Thunder »

Well I'll look really silly now if things don't happen John. Infact I was the most negative as there is always something that could ruin chances. Cloud cover? A pre frontal northwest flow which does look possible but seems unlikely I think.

Still, it does look good for tomorrow anyway. Look forward to it!

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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Richard »

Yes and i think its my turn for some up my way for a change,ive missed out on all of them so far...and if i dont :mad: ...well i'll throw a bloody tantrum :D
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Thunder »

It does look more like things would happen south of Banks Peninsula, perhaps getting into North Canterbury. Hopefully you don't miss out again Richard but we'll likely head south to start the day, which other way is there? lol.

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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by spwill »

I think watch wind direction and dewpoint tomorrow. The moisture is usually the missing ingredient for storms in Canterbury (east of the Alps) but a NE breeze will bring off shore moisture in as was the case with the last two thunder events in Chch this Spring.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Storm Struck »

In my opinion i think tomorrow is a very decent set up maybe even severe thunderstorms in an area between just south of Ashburton up to about Rolleston.
Severe i mean as in 20+mm hail i think the 5-15mm hail MS have is still abit low especially for this area, storms tomorrow will be slow moving due to the lighter variable winds and coastal E-NE winds look very likly especially about the coast.
With that slow nature in cell development generally the ice particles can stay up longer in the cloud therefore larger hail, thats my theory anyway.
I know its only still reasonably early in the season but i would be almost tempted to have a high risk in this area i mentioned above, and a moderate risk over the remainder of Canterbury.
We have seen simular set ups like this before and going by this ( sometimes in severe thunderstorm occasions ) the strongest storms are in this area, I think September 4th was simular but definatly January 18th 2009 comes to mind.
Time will tell, i will be out able to chase from 2pm onwards im getting away early from work bugger it :D .
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Models are showing a light NW before the change, wouldn't read to much into that as in the past models have indicated such light winds before but on the day a NE has prevailed. Cloud cover shouldnt be a problem, upper air is very cold, Negative Li's and impressive TT figures....

Im picking the area around Ashburton to be the most at risk atm. Tthe change will move up and most likely hit chch with a possibly Tstorm in late afternoon/evening I don't think it will as intense here as Sept 4th
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by NZstorm »

Its not a September 4 type set up and I think the time of year makes it a bit iffy.

The upper air will be unstable, there just needs to be some convergence with some moisture.
So its a question of the coastal breeze as always with Cantab storms.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Richard »

A good looking spiralling tough moving ENE toward central NZ this morning _b

No wind here ATM and hoping the NW wind doesn't come up again too.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Should be a big chase day today, looking at heading south early afternoon to get into position. I dont think surface moisture should be a problem. Sorry Richard dont think storms will make it that far north :-(
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Lacertae »

Question : what is preventing MS from upgrading the risk to high ?

Anyway, I'll check with my manager about some time off and cross the Rakaia before 15:00. I wasn't gonna chase today but how can I resist ... :mrgreen:
A shame I will only go get a proper tripod on Thursday ! >_<
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Tbh I think it should be high risk, have thought this for a while now. Today looks better in the models than sept 4th from memory.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Razor »

So far so good in ChCh, big blue dome morning with scattered Cu buildups starting towards the peninsula and a light NE underway... so the ingrediants are in place
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Orion »

Interesting line of clouds observed to the south, maybe near Rangitata Mouth. Just watching - am in Ashburton for next several hours.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Dean. »

Hoping something happens before work at 3pm....I must change shifts!
Blue skies light winds here.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by moylanr »

Not expecting any precipitation for CHC until after 8 pm.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Lacertae »

Back from work, the forecast is now for moderate risk of severe tstorm ! Well forecasted Jase, slow moving cells on the menu. ;)
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by carrot »

Severe thunderstorm Watch out now
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by CWUweather »

Metservice are reasonably confident on this by looks of it. but i have to work tonight so stuff it
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Richard »

03Stormchaser wrote:Should be a big chase day today, looking at heading south early afternoon to get into position. I dont think surface moisture should be a problem. Sorry Richard dont think storms will make it that far north :-(
Dam >_< ,its a NW wind here which is not good,that low just moving onto Westland ATM so we'll see.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Richard »

joliver657 wrote:Metservice are reasonably confident on this by looks of it. but i have to work tonight so stuff it
I started my work early just so i been home for the afternoon :D
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Richard »

First sign of cloud developments to my east

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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by Orion »

Posting from Ashburton, where it's clouded up a lot from the northwest or west over last hour - no sunshine at moment; one large fascinating bright-edged cloud expanding nearby; smaller view of sky here than at home! Will keep watching.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

Unread post by moylanr »

Was going to post attached data showing it starting to cloud over in Christchurch 1/2 an hour ago, went outside to check "the real world" and saw about 5/8 cloud cover, come back and find Solar Radiation has sky rocketed to over 1000 W/m^2. Back down to 345 now.
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