Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct

[03Stormchaser]

Arthurs Pass has had 143.0mm for today so far, taken at 1705

[Dean.]

Down to 3.3 here with sleet mixed in the rain.

[mikestormchaser]

maybe 200m at the most. dont think u will see anything in lower. maybe bit sleet.

[CWUweather]

Down to 3.3 here with sleet mixed in the rain.

im hoping we may get a little snow in chch..... nothing much just a little would be nice! haha

[Michael]

Wish it would blow 1 or 2 of the offenders down,its only a 1/3rd and talking about entire trees....some good gusts but nothing constant like the SW.

[CWUweather]

temp dropped 0.5 degrees in chch in the last 10 mins

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Peak gust at Auckland airport today has been 50kts (93km/h).

Interesting to see the wind reports for Auckland today with this system
Windy here as well.Haven't heard from the Westland area.
Would be a lot of rain over there early this morning as lightning, well the occasional flash was observed away over there, from here, in the dark hours of this morning before sun-up. No wonder the Milford Road had a huge slip.
Probably or maybe some good rain totals from there

[bmo]

Am in Auckland and its windy! Max wind gust at the house, which is in a sheltered area, is 71km/h. The whole road is littered with tree branches, can't wait for the wind to die down.

[Manukau heads obs]

met service have been behind the 8 ball today
now they issue a severe warning for the auckland/waikato area for gusts to 120kmh, from 7pm to 10pm
but I suspect they are basing that on the manukau heads signal station which recorded over 150 kmh gusts at 7pm
but thats due to a wind change to the WNW from the NW
as there is a funneling effect through the entrance to the manukau harbour in a W to WNW wind, and so that is why the wind ramped up there
it has not increased here
so that was a red herring

they should know this, or at least they should now if they read this
local knowledge here

[David]

Interesting there is a wind warning out for 7-10pm, it has certainly eased here from before. Our max gusts were 62 km/h.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

62km/h the maximum gust locally here too. Gusting to around 45km/h now with average wind speed of 30km/h. Just shy of 30mm mark now with light rain still falling

[CWUweather]

62km/h the maximum gust locally here too. Gusting to around 45km/h now with average wind speed of 30km/h. Just shy of 30mm mark now with light rain still falling

do u think the rain band currently over ashburton will make its way towards chch soon?

[03Stormchaser]

as there is a funneling effect through the entrance to the manukau harbour in a W to WNW wind, and so that is why the wind ramped up there
it has not increased here
so that was a red herring

It is accurate for that one location? I guess for a wider area it could be used as a guide as you say but there isnt any need to move it. Mind you I dont actually know this area very well.

At 7pm its reading

Manukau Heads
7:00 pm 13 Oct 2012 WNW Wind Speed km/h 100.0 Wind Gust km/h 157.5

Which does seem high..

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

do u think the rain band currently over ashburton will make its way towards chch soon?

No

[CWUweather]

do u think the rain band currently over ashburton will make its way towards chch soon?

No

im sorry for showing a intrest!!

[melja]

Rain stopped out here in rangiora with only 19mm.

[Manukau heads obs]

At 7pm its reading

Manukau Heads
7:00 pm 13 Oct 2012 WNW Wind Speed km/h 100.0 Wind Gust km/h 157.5



Which does seem high..

the manukau heads signal station is at 870 feet, on top of a very steep hill face, at the entrance to the harbour
the other side of the entrance the waitakere ranges are just as steep and rise to over 1200 feet
so very strong funneling effect in a W to WNW wind
you can check it out with google earth


Its not unusual for the site to get over 155 kmh...gets to over 160kmh gusts there no problem..the record is 212kmh!

[jamie]

Saw a cloud which looked very much like a funnel cloud just before dark. What are the chances it was?

Wind has swung further round to the wnw now. Barro is rising and wind is slowly easing.

Metservice way behind the game today. It has been our strongest sustained wind I have recorded in 4 years. To be getting multiple gusts to and above 90km for a lot of the evening and the Max sustained wind of 80km/h (another new record for me) an metservice only put the warning out after its easing is a bit slack. I know there was a watch and all and lots of talk about it but it was clear throughout the day we were getting gales. Why now warning?

[Manukau heads obs]

Why now warning?

I am picking the 157 kmh gust at the heads was a flag in some computer program to put out a warning
but it was a red herring, as it was due to the wind change to the WNW, which has more funneling in the harnbour entrance
bad call...wind is easing more here...its embarising....

[03Stormchaser]

Be interesting to hear Paul's take on all of this.

[CWUweather]

still pouring in chch. another band just making landfall over ellesmere. snowy/sleety?!

[snowstormwatcher]

Stopped raining here with a total of 47mm, Snow settled down to around 350m
Lots of surface flooding around the area, The soil simply cant handle the 400mm+ of rain since late July.

[Razor]

Had a good drive round the traps today. Snow settling above about 500-600m mark through Mt Somers and up to Porters Pass area above Springfield. Otherwise just rain and lots of it. No chance of snow lower than that, just the worng time of year. Got some great snowball action with the kids around Mt Somers, just up the Ashburton Gorge road.

A lot of surface flooding and by gosh, the Rakaia was huge at the gorge.

[Michael]

if it goes SW will get the higher speeds.the low is pulling/transfering east quicker than predicted.

Interesting there is a wind warning out for 7-10pm, it has certainly eased here from before. Our max gusts were 62 km/h.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see that places like Waihi, east of the coromandel ranges, are getting severe gale Westerly winds now...will be as the 2nd front/trough moves through there...after moving through here around 7pm