Mt Ruapehu

[harveyt86]

Some interesting, if slight change of wording in there as well. Putting minor eruptive activity before no eruptive activity as most likely scenario in next 4 weeks. Also that large eruptive activity is still very unlikely but have now added "within the next 4 weeks".

I suppose the wording won't get much stronger than that until analysis of lake samples shows interaction with magma?

[Razor]

Some interesting, if slight change of wording in there as well. Putting minor eruptive activity before no eruptive activity as most likely scenario in next 4 weeks. Also that large eruptive activity is still very unlikely but have now added "within the next 4 weeks".

I suppose the wording won't get much stronger than that until analysis of lake samples shows interaction with magma?

I wouldn't read too much into that. I expect this is partly a weekly communications update box ticking process after the learnings from White island.

Temperature rising in the lake is more interesting. Maybe the vent is less blocked, and thus heating more

[harveyt86]

Could well be. Although you wouldn't think they would word it that way lightly. It's a dangerous game. RNZ already running with 'Minor Eruptive Activity Predicted for Mt Ruapehu'. Don't want to end up in a boy who cries wolf situation in the future if nothing happens this time?

Temperature rise is interesting. Sounds like vents are upwelling pretty vigorously which could be a good or bad thing depending how you look at it? Anyway, watching with interest regardless!

[darcyplumb]

I see this has been published this afternoon aswell…

https://www.doc.govt.nz/globalassets/do ... uM13mBx8Lo

[Razor]

Heard Brad Scott from GNS this afternoon on the radio and I quote" I'm more worried about no snow for the ski season than I am about an eruption ". Nice perspective

[Awhituobs]

they are busy making snow in happy valley, so that will get up and running regardless

[harveyt86]

Tremor seems to have settled down considerably after being on the decrease the last couple of weeks. Be interesting to see what the next update says. I imagine there has also been limited opportunity for monitoring flights recently with the weather about.

[David]

An update was just posted actually

https://www.geonet.org.nz/vabs/36DmsaLzVWczmz5uyAs71p

[harveyt86]

So it was! Sounds like things settling down a bit. Although only northern vent upwelling again and a decrease in temp? Who knows what that means. It is a mystery haha. Still very interesting/entertaining to follow and speculate!

[Awhituobs]

its gonna blow
(one day)

[Rogue]

Sharp drop in temperature over the last two or three days, compared with the slow and steady rise over the last two months. Useful link to see the current lake temp:

https://fits.geonet.org.nz/plot?siteID= ... =t&days=60

Can change the number of days shown by changing the number on the end of the link

[Awhituobs]

ta for the link, interesting!

[harveyt86]

Recent updates (including today's) seem to indicate that GNS are as stumped as anyone as to what is going on up the mountain at the moment. Must be a fascinating field to work in.

[BeaconHill]

Fascinating..... or Frustrating!

[03Stormchaser]

If you expand that link rogue supplied before to the last 1000 days it appears like it is just playing as it normally does.

MtR.png

[David]

Alert level was lowered back to 1 yesterday

https://www.geonet.org.nz/vabs/6ek5OkTf13CM9BqY538frb